357 Murphy Rd · Schoharie, NY 12157

$150,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,460 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1947 1.10 ac lot Est $279k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away in a peaceful, private setting (dead-end town maintained road) along Fox Creek, this charming 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath Cape Cod offers the perfect blend of comfort and natural beauty. Inside, you'll find a warm and inviting living room with stunning wood floors, a cozy eat-in kitchen, and elegant archways that add character throughout the home. The first-floor bathroom includes convenient washer/dryer hookups, and abundant natural light fills every room, creating a bright and welcoming atmosphere. Enjoy breathtaking mountain and creek views right from your windows, or unwind outdoors surrounded by the serene sights and sounds of nature. The seclusion of this property enhances its uni

Key facts

• Creek views
• Wood floors
• Archways

Tags

• WOOD FLOORS
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• ARCHWAYS
• WASHER DRYER HOOKUPS
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• CREEK VIEWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $51 ($611/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (10.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $134k (10.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#761 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Schoharie Central School District (rural): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #476 of 590 in NY (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 35 units permitted in Schoharie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Schoharie County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $150k implies a 131% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $134,386 (10.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.46%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $278,860
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
249 Pickett Hill Rd	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,493 (+2%)	18mo	$285,000	$191	51
109 Sellick Rd	0.59mi	3/1.5	1,344 (-8%)	9mo	$165,000	$123	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.02×
• Total profit: $84,942
• Equity at exit: $135,132

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.90×
• Total profit: $247,599
• Equity at exit: $291,417

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12157

• Home prices YoY: 20.9%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,344 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$162 /mo · $1,939/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $51

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,279

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-18
   listed $150,000 Active
3. 2004-05-17
   soldstatus $65,000
4. 1999-07-21
   soldstatus $75,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,939 · $162/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,237 · $186/mo
• Expected delta: +$298/yr (+$25/mo · 15.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥92°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,126
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,939
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,290
• − Management: −$1,290
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$1,909
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$458
• After-tax cash flow: $1,069/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Schoharie Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3626100
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $56,868
• Composite: 37.2/100
• National rank: #4472
• State rank: #476 of 590 in NY

Livability — Schoharie

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #761
• US rank: #14594

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,444

Population outlook (Schoharie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,080 people
• By 2030: 27,417 · -5.7%
• By 2040: 23,835 · -18.0%
• By 2050: 20,482 · -29.6%
• By 2075: 14,323 · -50.7%
• By 2100: 9,636 · -66.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Schoharie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.5) · D 34.7% · R 65.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.2pp toward R · 2008: -14.3pp · 2024: -30.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.5 2020: R+29.0 2016: R+34.7 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+14.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 56.89%
• Current HPI: 328.5011
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+99.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-03-18 Listed $150,000 Global MLS
• 2004-05-17 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 1999-07-21 Sold (Public Records) $75,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,939 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.