7900 S Oriole Dr · Willow Valley, AZ 86440

$185,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,078 sqft · Manufactured public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1986 Est $221k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.3/30.0
• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Private Beach and Marina in this highly sought after river community. Recently fully renovated home in a friendly community on the Colorado River. Nice neighbors, beautiful sunsets, skiing or floating, Sunday pancake breakfasts in the clubhouse, and relax in your comfy river home. Lots of community events like Monday night football and poker runs, holiday parades, golf, and side by side outings. Join the fun! Call Rocky for more info and to tour the house. [phone]

Key facts

• Fully renovated home
• Private beach
• Marina

Tags

• PRIVATE BEACH
• MARINA
• FULLY RENOVATED HOME

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $338 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (2.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (2.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#170 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D, schools F.
• Colorado River Union High School District (4381) (town): math 13% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #213 of 249 in AZ (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 217 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,543 units permitted in Mohave County in 2024 (33 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Mohave County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $185k implies a 132% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,000 (2.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.84%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $220,990
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7933 S Meadowlark St	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,104 (+2%)	10mo	$243,000	$220	84
7796 S Cardinal Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,080 (+0%)	1mo	$210,000	$194	82
7806 S Meadowlark St	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (+7%)	2mo	$248,000	$215	72
600 E A St	0.44mi	2/2.0	1,100 (+2%)	10mo	$165,000	$150	68
7916 S Teal St	0.14mi	2/1.5	1,000 (-7%)	16mo	$238,000	$238	66
628 E Border Ln	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,100 (+2%)	9mo	$175,000	$159	66
7830 S Quail Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (+7%)	8mo	$190,000	$165	62
7821 S Teal St	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,140 (+6%)	23mo	$164,900	$145	61
667 E A St	0.36mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (-2%)	18mo	$379,900	$360	60
8105 S Evergreen Dr	0.44mi	2/1.0	1,025 (-5%)	20mo	$210,000	$205	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.36×
• Total profit: $122,208
• Equity at exit: $166,663

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.62×
• Total profit: $342,756
• Equity at exit: $359,414

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86440

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 217
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $438/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $338

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,372

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7866 S Meadowlark St Mohave Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,800	$1.73	13d	1	0.07mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $185,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $185,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $185,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    remarks 475-char remark
13. 2026-06-03
    listed $185,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $438 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,221 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$783/yr (+$65/mo · 178.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 7% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥117°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$438
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,728
• − Management: −$1,728
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable income: $1,036
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$249
• After-tax cash flow: $3,811/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Colorado River Union High School District (4381)
• NCES district ID: 0400082
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 17% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $39,132
• Composite: 12.72/100
• National rank: #9603
• State rank: #213 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Willow Valley

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #170
• US rank: #18589

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Willow Valley, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 8,403

Population outlook (Mohave County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 209,184 people
• By 2030: 209,674 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 205,897 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 196,810 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 169,454 · -19.0%
• By 2100: 136,630 · -34.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 11% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Iranian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Mohave

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.8) · D 21.8% · R 77.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: -32.9pp · 2024: -55.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.8 2020: R+51.3 2016: R+51.5 2012: R+42.6 2008: R+32.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.05%
• Current HPI: 322.7772
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+444.1% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $185,000 FSBO.com
• 2018-03-09 Sold (Public Records) $79,900 Public Records
• 2018-03-09 Sold (MLS) $79,900 WARDEX
• 2017-09-12 Listed $79,900 WARDEX
• 2017-08-29 Listed $81,900 WARDEX
• 2017-08-10 Listed $77,500 WARDEX
• 2017-06-30 Listed $77,500 WARDEX
• 2017-01-27 Listed $79,950 WARDEX
• 2015-09-04 Listed $77,500 WARDEX
• 2007-06-12 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 1991-08-13 Sold (Public Records) $34,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $438 · +13.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.