6815 Fm 31 S · Carthage, TX 75633

$79,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 153 Days on market

Built 1965 2.00 ac lot ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Two bedroom one bath country home on 2 acres. Nice covered front porch. 2.5 car Carport. Large kitchen and living room. Located across the street from Flatwoods Voluntary Fire Department.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Living room
• Large kitchen

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• LARGE KITCHEN
• LIVING ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $193 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($981 rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#258 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Carthage ISD (town): math 41% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #364 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 140 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Panola County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Panola County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.33%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-646
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $15,371
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75633

• Home prices YoY: -27.3%
• Active inventory: 140
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $981 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$130 /mo · $1,561/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $193

Break-even live

Break-even rent $737

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 153 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 152 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 151 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 150 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 148 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $79,900 Active 147 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 144 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,900 Active 143 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,900 Active 142 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,900 Active 141 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 138 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 137 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 136 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 135 DOM
15. 2026-03-04
    price $79,900
16. 2026-01-06
    listed $89,900 Active
17. 2017-09-18
    soldstatus
18. 2016-01-27
    soldstatus
19. 2008-02-04
    soldstatus
20. 1991-03-27
    soldstatus
21. 1983-03-31
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,561 · $130/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,561 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 76% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,772
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,561
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$942
• − Management: −$942
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $1,128
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$271
• After-tax cash flow: $2,041/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carthage ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813110
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $48,546
• Composite: 35.19/100
• National rank: #4997
• State rank: #364 of 826 in TX

Livability — Carthage

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #258
• US rank: #6081

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,999

Population outlook (Panola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,273 people
• By 2030: 22,845 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 21,652 · -7.0%
• By 2050: 20,107 · -13.6%
• By 2075: 15,709 · -32.5%
• By 2100: 11,013 · -52.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 14% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Vietnamese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Panola

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.4) · D 16.7% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.5pp toward R · 2008: -48.9pp · 2024: -66.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.4 2020: R+63.5 2016: R+63.5 2012: R+56.1 2008: R+48.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.73%
• Current HPI: 162.0275
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $79,900 LAAR
• 2026-01-06 Listed $89,900 LAAR
• 2017-09-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-01-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-02-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1991-03-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1983-03-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,561 · +9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.