221 E Main St · Brownville, NY 13615

$135,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,673 sqft · SingleFamily · 3 Days on market

Built 1867 Fair condition 0.40 ac lot Est $269k · 50% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

Bring your vision and unlock the potential of this spacious 3 bedroom, 1 bath home in the Village of Brownville! Offering nearly 1,700 square feet of living space, this two story home is an excellent opportunity for those wanting a starter home, investors, or anyone looking for affordable homeownership. The property features a one-stall garage, a level backyard with plenty of room for outdoor activities, and a unique setting that backs up to the Black River. While the river is currently not accessible from the property due to overgrowth, the natural backdrop provides added privacy and a peaceful setting. Several important updates have already been completed, including a new main electrical

Key facts

• One stall garage
• Level backyard
• New toilet

Tags

• ONE STALL GARAGE
• LEVEL BACKYARD
• BACKS UP TO BLACK RIVER
• NEW ELECTRICAL PANEL BOX
• NEW TOILET
• NEW CIRCUIT BOARD FOR FURNACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; One garage space
• Utilities: Sewer connected; Public water available/connected
• Home design: Two-story home; Existing construction; Rectangular lot; Main thoroughfare frontage
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Stone foundation
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; River access to the Black River; Stream frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in range; Built-in oven; Electric cooktop; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; Forced air
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining room; Eat-in kitchen; Bedroom on main level; Full basement; One fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $96 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (3.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $130k (3.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#680 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: schools D, health & safety D, crime D-.
• General Brown Central School District (rural): math 39% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #407 of 590 in NY (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1867 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $130,186 (3.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1867 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.03%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $269,353
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
306 E Main St	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,620 (-3%)	9mo	$204,000	$126	75
203 Brown Blvd	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,701 (+2%)	9mo	$208,000	$122	71
205 Pike St	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,588 (-5%)	7mo	$210,000	$132	70
213 Pike St	0.24mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,496 (-11%)	8mo	$190,000	$127	58
205 Franklin St	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,784 (+7%)	11mo	$230,000	$129	53
20065 Evans Rd	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,876 (+12%)	14mo	$330,000	$176	51
118 Warren St	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,466 (-12%)	9mo	$210,000	$143	50
111 Brown Rd W	0.26mi	3/1.5	1,468 (-12%)	19mo	$265,000	$181	50
115 Patrician Ln	0.55mi	3/2.5	1,812 (+8%)	6mo	$330,000	$182	49
118 Patrician Ln	0.60mi	3/2.5	1,784 (+7%)	8mo	$321,500	$180	49
19649 State Route 12f	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,424 (-15%)	20mo	$229,900	$161	43
401 Brown Blvd	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,902 (+14%)	12mo	$345,000	$181	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.93% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $8,140
• Equity at exit: $45,567

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $39,753
• Equity at exit: $60,155

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13615

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 7
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,302 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$169 /mo · $2,025/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $96

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,181

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-07
   listed $135,000 Pending 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 27% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,622
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,025
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,250
• − Management: −$1,250
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$1,067
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$256
• After-tax cash flow: $1,402/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 14 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This two-story home requires moderate renovations to improve its condition and increase its value. Key areas for improvement include the kitchen and bathroom, exterior siding, and roof. With updates, the home could be a great investment for both resale and rental markets.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen cabinets — Outdated and worn, need replacement
• Major Bathroom cabinets — Outdated and worn, need replacement
• Moderate Roof — Age is unknown, may need inspection
• Moderate Exterior siding — Weathered and discolored, may need repainting or replacement
• Moderate Windows — Older windows, may need replacement or caulking

Value-add opportunities

• Resale New kitchen cabinets and countertops — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value for potential buyers
• Resale New bathroom fixtures and vanity — Modernizes the bathroom and adds value for potential buyers
• Both New roof — Improves the home's appearance and adds value for both resale and rental
• Both Exterior painting — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental
• Both Landscaping and yard maintenance — Improves the home's appearance and adds value for both resale and rental

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Outdated and worn, need replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathroom cabinets · Outdated and worn, need replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
Roof · Age is unknown, may need inspection	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Exterior siding · Weathered and discolored, may need repainting or replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Windows · Older windows, may need replacement or caulking	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$39,000–145,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale New kitchen cabinets and countertops — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value for potential buyers ↑
• Resale New bathroom fixtures and vanity — Modernizes the bathroom and adds value for potential buyers ↑
• Both New roof — Improves the home's appearance and adds value for both resale and rental ↑
• Both Exterior painting — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental ↑
• Both Landscaping and yard maintenance — Improves the home's appearance and adds value for both resale and rental ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: General Brown Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3611910
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $57,237
• Composite: 41.75/100
• National rank: #3398
• State rank: #407 of 590 in NY

Livability — Brownville

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #680
• US rank: #12808

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brownville, NY
• City population: 538
• Population (ZIP): 538

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Black 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 18% Scandinavian 6% Iranian 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.93%
• Current HPI: 342.5299
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-06-04 Listed $135,000 CNYIS