1602 Gardenia Ave · Fayetteville, NC 28311

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 139 Days on market

Built 1966 Est $160k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

-As-Is Sale!

Key facts

• Brick exterior
• Spacious lot
• Residential setting

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• BRICK EXTERIOR
• MATURE TREES
• RESIDENTIAL SETTING
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED
• EASY ACCESS TO FORT LIBERTY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; 1 covered space; 1 carport space
• Utilities: Public water; Holding tank and septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential zoning (R6 - Residential District)
• Construction: Brick veneer and frame construction
• Exterior features: Storm door(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Range
• Bedrooms: 5 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living areas)
• Flooring: Hardwood flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Forced air; Heat pump
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $313 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 4.8% in Fayetteville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#45 in NC, #4,031 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Westarea Elementary (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,242 of 1,410 statewide, top 90%, 559 students, 100% FRL); Spring Lake Middle (math 15% / reading 31%, grade F, #406 of 475 statewide, top 86%, 512 students, 99% FRL); Pine Forest High (math 73% / reading 51%, grade B-, #184 of 535 statewide, top 37%, 1,572 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 55% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 362 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 29y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $38k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $125k implies a 733% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.72%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $160,272
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1622 Shaw Rd	0.12mi	3/2.0	996 (-1%)	7mo	$36,000	$36	86
1612 Gardenia Ave	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,107 (+10%)	2mo	$155,000	$140	78
5212 Delco St	0.27mi	3/1.5	1,095 (+9%)	1mo	$174,000	$159	70
927 Fiske Dr	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,012 (+0%)	4mo	$127,000	$125	67
5200 Delco Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,040 (+3%)	19mo	$181,500	$175	65
1075 Brenda Dr	0.50mi	3/1.0	944 (-6%)	11mo	$150,000	$159	53
906 Fiske Dr	0.67mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,050 (+4%)	16mo	$155,000	$148	42
1512 Stansfield Dr	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	900 (-11%)	8mo	$160,000	$178	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-625
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $23,957
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28311

• Home prices YoY: -18.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 362
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,393 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $960/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $313

Break-even live

Break-even rent $997

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $383	-5% $348	+0% $313	+5% $277	+10% $242
Rent	-10% $203	-5% $258	+0% $313	+5% $368	+10% $423
Rate	-1.0pp $376	-0.5pp $344	base $313	+0.5pp $280	+1.0pp $247

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1404 Hibiscus Rd Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.5	1418	$1,350	$0.95	22d	1	0.21mi
1350 Shaw Rd Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1339	$1,399	$1.04	15d	1	0.24mi
5745 Holland St Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.0	1140	$1,650	$1.45	24d	1	0.32mi
5523 Livingston Dr Fayetteville, NC	4.0	1.5	1305	$1,600	$1.23	24d	1	0.45mi
927 Fiske Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.0	926	$1,200	$1.30	24d	1	0.50mi
844 Anita Rd Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.0	850	$850	$1.00	15d	1	0.91mi
4310 Coolidge St Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.5	1212	$1,250	$1.03	15d	1	1.04mi
1907 Eichelberger Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1463	$1,650	$1.13	24d	1	1.18mi
848 Tamarack Dr Fayetteville, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0	705	$1,171	$1.66	15d	49	1.23mi
3613 Pine Lake Dr Fayetteville, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1116	$1,645	$1.47	15d	31	1.25mi
1882 Tryon Dr #4 Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1063	$1,100	$1.03	15d	1	1.32mi
1808 Tryon Dr Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1066	$995	$0.93	24d	1	1.32mi
4206 S Dowfield Dr Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.0	900	$895	$0.99	24d	1	1.32mi
4202 S Dowfield Dr Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.0	800	$930	$1.16	24d	1	1.32mi
5109 Higgins St Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.0	862	$1,000	$1.16	24d	1	1.35mi
1861 Tryon Dr Unit 3 Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1050	$995	$0.95	24d	1	1.36mi
5112 Cannon St Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.0	750	$949	$1.27	15d	1	1.36mi
1909 Tryon Dr #7 Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,050	$0.99	24d	1	1.41mi
1615 Morehead Ave Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1073	$1,400	$1.30	24d	1	1.41mi
1849 Tryon Dr Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1061	$998	$0.94	24d	2	1.42mi
4420 Blanton Rd Unit 4420-H Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.5	990	$1,025	$1.04	15d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 139 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 136 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 135 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 134 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 133 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 131 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 130 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $125,000 Active 128 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $151,000 Active 127 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $151,000 Active 126 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $151,000 Active 125 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $151,000 Active 121 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $151,000 Active 120 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $151,000 Active 119 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $151,000 Active 118 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $151,000 Active 117 DOM
17. 2026-04-10
    price $151,000
18. 2026-04-10
    status Active
19. 2026-01-23
    listed $163,000 Active
20. 2023-11-29
    price $24,900 12-char remark

    Show marketing remark (12 chars)

    -As-Is Sale!

21. 2016-09-15
    soldstatus $15,000 12-char remark

    Show marketing remark (12 chars)

    -As-Is Sale!

22. 2016-01-02
    listed $24,900 12-char remark

    Show marketing remark (12 chars)

    -As-Is Sale!

23. 2015-09-02
    soldstatus $30,000
24. 2014-12-31
    historical
25. 2014-09-02
    listed $38,000
26. 1997-12-03
    soldstatus $15,000 12-char remark

    Show marketing remark (12 chars)

    -As-Is Sale!

27. 1997-10-17
    listed $152,900 12-char remark

    Show marketing remark (12 chars)

    -As-Is Sale!

28. 1995-08-07
    soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $960 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,025 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: +$65/yr (+$5/mo · 6.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,712
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$960
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,337
• − Management: −$1,337
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $1,814
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$435
• After-tax cash flow: $3,315/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Fayetteville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #45
• US rank: #4031

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cumberland County · 265,314 people
• City population: 226,118
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 36,629
• Household income: $62,170
• Rent vs Own: 47.5% rent · 52.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1645.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 42% White 38% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.88%
• Current HPI: 203.0731
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.82%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+202.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $151,000 LPRMLS
• 2026-04-10 Relisted — LPRMLS
• 2026-01-23 Listed $163,000 LPRMLS
• 2023-11-29 Price Changed $24,900 TMLS
• 2016-09-15 Sold (MLS) $15,000 LPRMLS
• 2016-01-02 Listed $24,900 LPRMLS
• 2015-09-02 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 2014-12-31 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2014-09-02 Listed $38,000 TMLS
• 1997-12-03 Sold (MLS) $15,000 TMLS
• 1997-10-17 Listed $152,900 TMLS
• 1995-08-07 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $960 · +57.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.