9525 Congress St S · New Market, VA 22844

$179,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,572 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 100 Days on market

Built 1916 8,276 sqft lot $114/sqft · 37% below area Est $286k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.9/10.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 1916 Main St New Market home! This 4-bedroom, 1-bath gem sits on a spacious lot with a large backyard perfect for gardening, entertaining, or future expansion. Just steps from the renowned Southern Kitchen, you’ll enjoy small-town charm with big flavor nearby. The home features updated electrical service, a newer hot water heater, and a whole-house fan for energy-efficient cooling. Classic touches from the early 20th century blend with opportunities to add your own cosmetic touch. Whether you're a first-time buyer, investor, or DIY enthusiast, this home offers plenty of sweat equity to build value. Beautiful hardwoods, updated HVAC, and Freshly Painted!

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Whole-house fan
• Updated hvac

Tags

• LARGE BACKYARD
• UPDATED ELECTRICAL SERVICE
• NEWER HOT WATER HEATER
• WHOLE-HOUSE FAN
• UPDATED HVAC

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $212 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (8.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 2.9% in New Market — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#372 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A, health & safety A; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Shenandoah County Public School District (town): math 46% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #91 of 131 in VA (top 70%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 224 units permitted in Shenandoah County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (9.8% local appreciation)).
• Shenandoah County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (9.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1916 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,890 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1916 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.07%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $286,152
• List price: $179,000
• Delta: -37.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
222 E Lee Hwy	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,563 (-1%)	10mo	$280,000	$179	59
192 Jackson Ave	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,584 (+1%)	9mo	$325,000	$205	56
9222 N Congress St	0.57mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,488 (-5%)	6mo	$290,000	$195	50
303 E Old Cross Rd	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,380 (-12%)	13mo	$353,000	$256	44
307 E Old Cross Rd	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,380 (-12%)	14mo	$348,000	$252	42
307 Old Cross Rd E	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,380 (-12%)	14mo	$348,000	$252	40
227 Clicks Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,692 (+8%)	22mo	$365,000	$216	36
9859 Massanutten Ave	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,380 (-12%)	14mo	$318,500	$231	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.78% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.16×
• Total profit: $108,247
• Equity at exit: $158,439

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.13×
• Total profit: $307,343
• Equity at exit: $338,725

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22844

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 42
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,640 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $852/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $212

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,372

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $313	-5% $262	+0% $212	+5% $161	+10% $110
Rent	-10% $82	-5% $147	+0% $212	+5% $276	+10% $341
Rate	-1.0pp $302	-0.5pp $257	base $212	+0.5pp $165	+1.0pp $118

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
213 Pelham Dr New Market, VA	2.0	1.5	1320	$1,695	$1.28	6d	1	0.19mi
132 W Seminary Ln New Market, VA	3.0	2.0	1848	$1,700	$0.92	45d	1	0.33mi
9570 Shenandoah Dr New Market, VA	2.0	1.0	1070	$1,295	$1.21	45d	1	0.59mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-04
   statusdays on market $179,000 Pending 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $179,000 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $179,000 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $179,000 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $179,000 Active 96 DOM
6. 2026-05-08
   price $179,000 676-char remark

   Show marketing remark (676 chars)

   Charming 1916 Main St New Market home! This 4-bedroom, 1-bath gem sits on a spacious lot with a large backyard perfect for gardening, entertaining, or future expansion. Just steps from the renowned Southern Kitchen, you’ll enjoy small-town charm with big flavor nearby. The home features updated electrical service, a newer hot water heater, and a whole-house fan for energy-efficient cooling. Classic touches from the early 20th century blend with opportunities to add your own cosmetic touch. Whether you're a first-time buyer, investor, or DIY enthusiast, this home offers plenty of sweat equity to build value. Beautiful hardwoods, updated HVAC, and Freshly Painted!

7. 2026-03-31
   price $184,900 676-char remark

   Show marketing remark (676 chars)

   Charming 1916 Main St New Market home! This 4-bedroom, 1-bath gem sits on a spacious lot with a large backyard perfect for gardening, entertaining, or future expansion. Just steps from the renowned Southern Kitchen, you’ll enjoy small-town charm with big flavor nearby. The home features updated electrical service, a newer hot water heater, and a whole-house fan for energy-efficient cooling. Classic touches from the early 20th century blend with opportunities to add your own cosmetic touch. Whether you're a first-time buyer, investor, or DIY enthusiast, this home offers plenty of sweat equity to build value. Beautiful hardwoods, updated HVAC, and Freshly Painted!

8. 2026-02-24
   listed $194,900 Active 676-char remark

   Show marketing remark (676 chars)

   Charming 1916 Main St New Market home! This 4-bedroom, 1-bath gem sits on a spacious lot with a large backyard perfect for gardening, entertaining, or future expansion. Just steps from the renowned Southern Kitchen, you’ll enjoy small-town charm with big flavor nearby. The home features updated electrical service, a newer hot water heater, and a whole-house fan for energy-efficient cooling. Classic touches from the early 20th century blend with opportunities to add your own cosmetic touch. Whether you're a first-time buyer, investor, or DIY enthusiast, this home offers plenty of sweat equity to build value. Beautiful hardwoods, updated HVAC, and Freshly Painted!

9. 2025-12-22
   status Pending
10. 2025-10-29
    price $184,900
11. 2025-10-07
    price $192,500
12. 2025-09-02
    price $199,000
13. 2025-08-11
    listed $204,900 Active
14. 2020-01-07
    listed $138,750
15. 2010-12-16
    historical Withdrawn
16. 2010-12-16
    historical
17. 2010-11-17
    price
18. 2010-04-22
    price
19. 2010-04-01
    listed Active
20. 2010-04-01
    listed $130,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $852 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,468 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: +$616/yr (+$51/mo · 72.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,684
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$852
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,575
• − Management: −$1,575
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable loss: −$446
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$107
• After-tax cash flow: $2,646/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shenandoah County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103510
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,207
• Composite: 44.42/100
• National rank: #2811
• State rank: #91 of 131 in VA

Livability — New Market

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #372
• US rank: #15038

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment D Housing B- Health & safety A User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Market, VA
• Population (ZIP): 4,674

Population outlook (Shenandoah County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,891 people
• By 2030: 45,630 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 46,708 · +4.0%
• By 2050: 47,072 · +4.9%
• By 2075: 47,418 · +5.6%
• By 2100: 43,707 · -2.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Danish 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shenandoah

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.2) · D 28.4% · R 70.6% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.8pp toward R · 2008: -26.5pp · 2024: -42.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.2 2020: R+40.6 2016: R+43.3 2012: R+31.4 2008: R+26.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.78%
• Current HPI: 328.5512
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+37.7% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $179,000 HRAR
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $184,900 HRAR
• 2026-02-24 Listed $194,900 HRAR
• 2025-12-22 Pending — HRAR
• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $184,900 HRAR
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $192,500 HRAR
• 2025-09-02 Price Changed $199,000 HRAR
• 2025-08-11 Listed $204,900 HRAR
• 2020-01-07 Listed $138,750 HRAR
• 2010-12-16 Delisted — MRIS
• 2010-12-16 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-11-17 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2010-04-22 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2010-04-01 Listed — MRIS
• 2010-04-01 Listed $130,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $852 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.