47 Kinderhook Dr · Spackenkill, NY 12603

$399,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,542 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 71 Days on market

Built 1945 0.91 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 47 Kinderhook Drive, Poughkeepsie, NY 12603! This beautifully updated multi-family home is situated on a spacious 0.91-acre lot, making it an ideal place for comfortable living. The charming Cape Cod-style house features four cozy bedrooms and two and a half bathrooms, offering ample space with 1,542 square feet of living area. On the first floor, you’ll find a well-designed two-bedroom apartment that includes a den and one and a half bathrooms. The delightful upstairs unit is a cozy studio apartment of approximately 225 square feet. Located in the Spackenkill School District, this property is not just a home but also a fantastic investment opportunity in a desirable neighborhood. We can't wait for you to see it!

Key facts

• 0.91 acre lot
• Built 1945
• Listed 71 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath multifamily listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-190 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $365k (8.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $399k).
• Recommended offer: $365k (8.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 1.8% in Spackenkill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#136 in NY, #2,139 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Spackenkill Union Free School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #140 of 590 in NY (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 209 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,130/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($104k/yr) (locally 1404% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($375k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $153k; list at $399k implies a 161% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price; built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $365,421 (8.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.04%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-80,550
• Equity at exit: $59,492

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-100,930
• Equity at exit: $34,498

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12603

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 209
• Price-to-rent: 15.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,130 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax from tax record: −$1,194 /mo · $14,330/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$867
• Net cashflow: $-190

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,371

Max offer price $365,421

Occupancy floor 100%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
1× unit	2	1.5	$2,200
1× unit	1	0.5	$1,930
Total (2 units)			$4,130

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,000 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $399,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $399,000 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,000 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $399,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $399,000 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,000 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,000 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $399,000 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-04-08
    listed $399,000 Active 740-char remark

    Show marketing remark (740 chars)

    Welcome to 47 Kinderhook Drive, Poughkeepsie, NY 12603! This beautifully updated multi-family home is situated on a spacious 0.91-acre lot, making it an ideal place for comfortable living. The charming Cape Cod-style house features four cozy bedrooms and two and a half bathrooms, offering ample space with 1,542 square feet of living area. On the first floor, you’ll find a well-designed two-bedroom apartment that includes a den and one and a half bathrooms. The delightful upstairs unit is a cozy studio apartment of approximately 225 square feet. Located in the Spackenkill School District, this property is not just a home but also a fantastic investment opportunity in a desirable neighborhood. We can't wait for you to see it!

16. 2017-12-08
    soldstatus $153,000
17. 2017-08-21
    historical
18. 2016-02-28
    listed $190,000
19. 2014-11-30
    historical
20. 2013-11-07
    listed $184,900
21. 1989-06-20
    soldstatus $130,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $14,330 · $1,194/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $14,330 · $1,194/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,560
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$14,330
• − Insurance: −$1,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,965
• − Management: −$3,965
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable loss: −$8,652
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,076
• After-tax cash flow: $-205/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spackenkill Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3606500
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $81,919
• Composite: 60.73/100
• National rank: #826
• State rank: #140 of 590 in NY

Livability — Spackenkill

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #136
• US rank: #2139

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spackenkill, NY
• County: Dutchess County · 188,048 people
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 42,304
• Household income: $103,538
• Rent vs Own: 28.4% rent · 71.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1404.0

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 11% Two or more races 8% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 4% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -377.61%
• Current HPI: 252.7003
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.96%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+206.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Listed $399,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-12-08 Sold (Public Records) $153,000 Public Records
• 2017-08-21 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-02-28 Listed $190,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-11-30 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-11-07 Listed $184,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1989-06-20 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $14,330 · -42.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.