5157 185th St W · Farmington, MN 55024

$344,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,696 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1995 6,011 sqft lot $203/sqft · 15% below area Est $421k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move right in and enjoy this beautifully maintained 4 bedroom/2 bath home with tons of updates! New hardwood floors, ceramic tile, light fixtures, crown moldings, and lower level carpet-just to name a few! See supplement for more details.

Key facts

• 6,011 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1995

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (2-car)
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Natural gas fuel; Electric with circuit breakers
• Home design: Residential split-entry (bi-level) design; Pitched roof
• Construction: Block construction; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Full yard fencing; Metal and vinyl exterior; Light tree coverage; Public transit within six blocks; City street with curbs and paved streets; public maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with breakfast bar and kitchen window; Eat-in kitchen / informal dining area
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (includes a main floor bedroom); Bedroom sizes include 15x11, 14x11, 13x11, 11x9 (various levels)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main floor; 1 three-quarter bathroom in the basement
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Vaulted ceilings; Natural woodwork; Washer/dryer hookup; Finished daylight/ look-out basement with egress windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on lower level; Washer and dryer included; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $345k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-339 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (17.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (29.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $244k (29.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.8% in Farmington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#203 in MN, #4,269 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Farmington Public School District (suburban): math 43% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #104 of 301 in MN (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 325 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,134 units permitted in Dakota County in 2024 (898 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dakota County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $243,910 (29.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.21%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $420,947
• List price: $344,900
• Delta: -18.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-77,495
• Equity at exit: $51,426

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-95,402
• Equity at exit: $29,821

Cash invested: $96,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55024

• Home prices YoY: -31.2%
• Active inventory: 325
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,439 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,809
• Tax from tax record: −$313 /mo · $3,758/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$512
• Net cashflow: $-339

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,868

Max offer price $285,071

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,225
• Closing costs: $10,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18388 English Ave Farmington, MN	2.0	2.0	1544	$1,999	$1.29	43d	1	0.25mi
19644 Escalade Way #906 Farmington, MN	2.0	2.0	1500	$1,999	$1.33	43d	1	1.33mi
17079 Dysart Pl Lakeville, MN	3.0	3.0	1894	$2,795	$1.48	10d	1	1.35mi
17074 Dysart Pl Unit 17074 Lakeville, MN	3.0	2.5	1750	$2,800	$1.60	10d	1	1.37mi
17066 Dysart Pl Unit 17066 Lakeville, MN	3.0	2.5	1894	$2,895	$1.53	19d	1	1.39mi
17040 Dysart Pl Unit 17040 Lakeville, MN	3.0	2.5	1700	$2,700	$1.59	1d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 633-char remark
2. 2026-05-04
   historical Contingent - Inspection 633-char remark
3. 2026-05-01
   listed $344,900 Active 633-char remark
4. 2026-04-29
   historical $344,900 633-char remark
5. 2005-07-19
   soldstatus $232,000
6. 2005-06-30
   soldstatus $232,000 238-char remark

   Show marketing remark (238 chars)

   Move right in and enjoy this beautifully maintained 4 bedroom/2 bath home with tons of updates! New hardwood floors, ceramic tile, light fixtures, crown moldings, and lower level carpet-just to name a few! See supplement for more details.

7. 2005-05-17
   historical 238-char remark

   Show marketing remark (238 chars)

   Move right in and enjoy this beautifully maintained 4 bedroom/2 bath home with tons of updates! New hardwood floors, ceramic tile, light fixtures, crown moldings, and lower level carpet-just to name a few! See supplement for more details.

8. 2005-04-25
   listed $234,900 238-char remark

   Show marketing remark (238 chars)

   Move right in and enjoy this beautifully maintained 4 bedroom/2 bath home with tons of updates! New hardwood floors, ceramic tile, light fixtures, crown moldings, and lower level carpet-just to name a few! See supplement for more details.

9. 2003-08-01
   soldstatus $184,900
10. 2003-05-28
    soldstatus $184,900

    Show marketing remark (184 chars)

    4 BDRM. 2 Bath Split with vaulted ceilings...Open living room, and dining room. Maintenance free exterior, professional landscaping. Lower 11x16 family room. Ready for finishing touch!

11. 2003-03-30
    historical

    Show marketing remark (184 chars)

    4 BDRM. 2 Bath Split with vaulted ceilings...Open living room, and dining room. Maintenance free exterior, professional landscaping. Lower 11x16 family room. Ready for finishing touch!

12. 2003-03-21
    listed $184,900

    Show marketing remark (184 chars)

    4 BDRM. 2 Bath Split with vaulted ceilings...Open living room, and dining room. Maintenance free exterior, professional landscaping. Lower 11x16 family room. Ready for finishing touch!

13. 1995-09-12
    soldstatus $100,790

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,758 · $313/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,810 · $318/mo
• Expected delta: +$52/yr (+$4/mo · 1.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,269
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,320
• − Property taxes: −$3,758
• − Insurance: −$1,724
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,342
• − Management: −$2,342
• − Depreciation: −$10,033
• Taxable loss: −$10,250
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,460
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,604/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Farmington Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2711820
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,959
• Composite: 43.93/100
• National rank: #2905
• State rank: #104 of 301 in MN

Livability — Farmington

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #203
• US rank: #4269

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Farmington, MN
• County: Dakota County · 417,704 people
• City population: 37,287
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 37,287
• Household income: $127,280
• Rent vs Own: 11.3% rent · 88.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 288.0

Population outlook (Dakota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 450,671 people
• By 2030: 465,068 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 486,770 · +8.0%
• By 2050: 498,743 · +10.7%
• By 2075: 533,865 · +18.5%
• By 2100: 550,133 · +22.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Scottish 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dakota

• 2024 margin: D (+12.9) · D 55.4% · R 42.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.5pp · 2024: 12.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+4.7 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.47%
• Current HPI: 225.6882
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+262.1% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Sold (MLS) $365,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-11 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-04 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Listed $344,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Coming Soon $344,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-07-19 Sold (Public Records) $232,000 Public Records
• 2005-06-30 Sold (MLS) $232,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-05-17 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-04-25 Listed $234,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $184,900 Public Records
• 2003-05-28 Sold (MLS) $184,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-03-30 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-03-21 Listed $184,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-09-12 Sold (Public Records) $100,790 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,758 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.