1029 197th Avenue NE Ave NE · East Bethel, MN 55011

$209,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1945 6.76 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Excellent starter home with the ability to expand. Bring your horses for 4+ pasture acres, pond and woods with wildlife to explore - almost 7 acres total. See supplements for E. Bethel accessory building allowances - 3,000+ square feet allowed and 4 buildings! Cozy, quiet freshly painted home with easy access to Hwy 65 and Viking Blvd. Efficiently heated with main floor wall unit. Oversized garage. Septic just pumped and compliant.

Key facts

• 6.76 acre lot
• Built 1945
• Listed 5 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property sits on approximately 6.76 acres (lot dimensions 270 x 1090) with about 4.26 acres noted as pasture area

Exterior

• Parking: No onsite parking listed
• Utilities: City water connected and well; Private sewer; Natural gas fuel; Electric with circuit breakers
• Home design: Residential property; One-and-a-half story layout; Entry level: Main
• Construction: Frame construction; Asphalt roof; Foundation details: see remarks; Originally built area with 645 foundation area
• Exterior features: Vinyl exterior; Chain link fencing; Heavy tree coverage; Road frontage on a county road; Publicly maintained road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms (both on the upper level)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main floor
• Heating & cooling: Heating: Other; Cooling: Wall units
• Interior features: Informal dining area integrated with living/dining space; Kitchen window
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Main-level laundry; Utility room on main level (7x6)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-200 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $175k (16.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (26.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (26.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.2% in East Bethel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#489 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• St. Francis Area Schools (rural): math 35% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #185 of 301 in MN (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 1,083 units permitted in Anoka County in 2024 (134 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Anoka County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $182k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,503 (26.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.08%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-46,728
• Equity at exit: $31,297

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-57,063
• Equity at exit: $18,148

Cash invested: $58,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55011

• Home prices YoY: -25.8%
• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,535 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$224 /mo · $2,689/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $-200

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,788

Max offer price $174,634

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,475
• Closing costs: $6,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $209,900 Pending 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,900 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,900 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   remarks 689-char remark
5. 2026-06-07
   listed $209,900 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,689 · $224/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,689 · $224/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,420
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,758
• − Property taxes: −$2,689
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,474
• − Management: −$1,474
• − Depreciation: −$6,106
• Taxable loss: −$6,130
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,471
• After-tax cash flow: $-924/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Francis Area Schools
• NCES district ID: 2733540
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $78,137
• Composite: 37.97/100
• National rank: #4300
• State rank: #185 of 301 in MN

Livability — East Bethel

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #489
• US rank: #11735

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Bethel, MN
• City population: 15,781
• Population (ZIP): 11,025

Population outlook (Anoka County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 375,223 people
• By 2030: 387,850 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 407,239 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 417,541 · +11.3%
• By 2075: 448,447 · +19.5%
• By 2100: 464,954 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Anoka

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.6% · R 51.0% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.0pp toward R · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: R+1.9 2016: R+9.7 2012: R+2.6 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.25%
• Current HPI: 265.1217
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+10.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $209,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-11 Sold (Public Records) $182,500 Public Records
• 2019-08-30 Sold (MLS) $182,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-12 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-31 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-26 Listed $180,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-10-18 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-10-11 Sold (MLS) $187,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-10-05 Sold (Public Records) $187,900 Public Records
• 2007-05-10 Listed $189,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,689 · +15.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.