37153 W Amalfi Ave · Maricopa, AZ 85138

$289,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,532 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 99 Days on market

Built 2008 5,206 sqft lot $189/sqft · 11% below area Est $326k · 11% under $75/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This inviting 3-bedroom home with a versatile den sits on a desirable corner lot and features a bright split floorplan designed for both privacy and connection. Vaulted ceilings create an open, airy feel throughout the main living spaces, while the kitchen comes fully equipped with all appliances for an easy move-in. The den offers the perfect flex space for a home office, playroom, or guest area. Located in a growing Maricopa community, this home blends comfort, convenience, and everyday livability.

Key facts

• Split floorplan
• Flex space
• Vaulted ceilings

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• SPLIT FLOORPLAN
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• FLEX SPACE
• GROWING COMMUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $289k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-371 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $223k (22.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (35.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (35.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.7% in Maricopa — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#28 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Maricopa Unified School District (4441) (town): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #128 of 249 in AZ (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 845 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,052 (35.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.50%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $326,141
• List price: $289,000
• Delta: -11.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37635 W Capri Ave	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,525 (-0%)	1mo	$295,000	$193	84
18570 N Toledo Ave	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,571 (+2%)	3mo	$295,000	$188	72
36618 W San Sisto Ave	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,434 (-6%)	1mo	$285,000	$199	70
38031 W San Alvarez Ave	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,573 (+3%)	1mo	$309,000	$196	69
36796 W Mondragone Ln	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,381 (-10%)	2mo	$260,000	$188	66
38149 W Isabella Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,542 (+1%)	1mo	$299,000	$194	66
36797 W Nina St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,593 (+4%)	1mo	$309,990	$195	61
38135 W Cannataro Ln	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,572 (+3%)	1mo	$312,000	$198	60
36795 W Santa Maria St	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,705 (+11%)	3mo	$309,990	$182	45
18953 N Avelino Dr	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,705 (+11%)	0mo	$332,990	$195	44
17490 N Salerno Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,317 (-14%)	1mo	$324,990	$247	41
17580 N Salerno Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,317 (-14%)	2mo	$316,000	$240	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.89% appreciation · 1.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-46,241
• Equity at exit: $71,322

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-54,954
• Equity at exit: $76,232

Cash invested: $80,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85138

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 845
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,871 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax from tax record: −$138 /mo · $1,650/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $-371

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,340

Max offer price $223,498

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,250
• Closing costs: $8,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
37154 W Amalfi Ave Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.5	2223	$1,695	$0.76	24d	1	0.02mi
37144 W Amalfi Ave Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1516	$1,669	$1.10	1d	1	0.03mi
37144 W Amalfi Ave Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1516	$1,839	$1.21	24d	1	0.03mi
37088 W Amalfi Ave Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1516	$1,735	$1.14	43d	1	0.06mi
17936 N Lettere Cir Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.5	2012	$1,800	$0.89	5d	1	0.17mi
37392 W Capri Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1764	$1,695	$0.96	16d	1	0.22mi
37392 W Capri Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1764	$1,695	$0.96	15d	1	0.22mi
37078 W Mondragone Ln Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1409	$1,600	$1.14	1d	1	0.34mi
37128 W Mondragone Ln Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1409	$1,450	$1.03	43d	1	0.36mi
36837 W Mediterranean Way Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1278	$1,695	$1.33	43d	1	0.44mi
36837 W Mediterranean Way Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1278	$1,595	$1.25	1d	1	0.44mi
17878 N Pietra Rd Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1555	$1,625	$1.05	43d	1	0.44mi
36822 W Maddaloni Ave Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1825	$1,775	$0.97	1d	1	0.46mi
36605 W Mondragone Ln Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1170	$1,595	$1.36	10d	1	0.48mi
36419 W San Ildefanso Ave Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1849	$1,795	$0.97	15d	1	0.54mi
36990 W Nola Way Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1769	$1,639	$0.93	10d	1	0.58mi
38128 W San Sisto Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1593	$1,995	$1.25	43d	1	0.59mi
38060 W Frascati Ave Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1790	$1,995	$1.11	43d	1	0.60mi
38105 W Isabella Ln Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1795	$1,736	$0.97	5d	1	0.63mi
17589 N Del Mar Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1177	$1,895	$1.61	44d	1	0.63mi
36355 W Mediterranean Way Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1411	$2,050	$1.45	1d	1	0.63mi
38165 W Excussare Way Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1572	$1,995	$1.27	5d	1	0.66mi
36085 W San Sisto Ave Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1605	$2,500	$1.56	1d	1	0.70mi
18853 N Vemto St Maricopa, AZ	4.0	3.0	2233	$1,895	$0.85	24d	1	0.70mi
38248 W Santa Clara Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,150	$1.26	24d	1	0.75mi
36043 W Santa Clara Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,895	$1.11	1d	1	0.77mi
35963 W San Alvarez Ave Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1922	$1,995	$1.04	24d	1	0.78mi
36033 W San Clemente Ave Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1775	$1,700	$0.96	43d	1	0.86mi
37014 W Prado St Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,700	$1.08	16d	1	0.87mi
36972 W Prado St Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,700	$1.08	16d	1	0.87mi
37043 W Vera Cruz Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1832	$2,300	$1.26	1d	1	0.89mi
19270 N Costa Verdez Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,610	$1.32	43d	1	0.92mi
19270 N Costa Verdez Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,730	$1.42	1d	1	0.92mi
18392 N Los Gabrieles Way Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,785	$1.07	4d	1	0.99mi
35579 W San Capistrano Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,650	$0.99	5d	1	1.03mi
36635 W Honeycutt Rd Maricopa, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	972	$2,259	$2.32	1d	82	1.04mi
18099 N Los Gabrieles Way Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,000	$1.18	43d	1	1.05mi
35423 W San Sisto Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1571	$1,950	$1.24	4d	1	1.11mi
35420 W San Alvarez Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1571	$1,800	$1.15	24d	1	1.12mi
35408 W San Alvarez Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,599	$1.05	24d	1	1.13mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,000 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,000 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,000 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,000 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,000 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,000 Active 93 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,000 Active 90 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,000 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $289,000 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $289,000 Active 85 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,000 Active 84 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $289,000 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-03-26
    price $299,000 505-char remark

    Show marketing remark (505 chars)

    This inviting 3-bedroom home with a versatile den sits on a desirable corner lot and features a bright split floorplan designed for both privacy and connection. Vaulted ceilings create an open, airy feel throughout the main living spaces, while the kitchen comes fully equipped with all appliances for an easy move-in. The den offers the perfect flex space for a home office, playroom, or guest area. Located in a growing Maricopa community, this home blends comfort, convenience, and everyday livability.

16. 2026-03-11
    listed $309,000 Active 505-char remark

    Show marketing remark (505 chars)

    This inviting 3-bedroom home with a versatile den sits on a desirable corner lot and features a bright split floorplan designed for both privacy and connection. Vaulted ceilings create an open, airy feel throughout the main living spaces, while the kitchen comes fully equipped with all appliances for an easy move-in. The den offers the perfect flex space for a home office, playroom, or guest area. Located in a growing Maricopa community, this home blends comfort, convenience, and everyday livability.

17. 2023-10-27
    historical
18. 2023-09-01
    listed $327,900 Active
19. 2022-07-01
    soldstatus $345,000
20. 2022-06-30
    soldstatus $345,000 Closed
21. 2022-06-14
    status Pending
22. 2022-06-03
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
23. 2022-05-18
    listed $350,000 Active
24. 2005-06-15
    soldstatus $7,608,250

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,650 · $138/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,907 · $159/mo
• Expected delta: +$257/yr (+$21/mo · 15.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,446
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,188
• − Property taxes: −$1,650
• − Insurance: −$1,445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,796
• − Management: −$1,796
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$8,407
• Taxable loss: −$9,736
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,337
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,113/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Maricopa Unified School District (4441)
• NCES district ID: 0404720
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $63,725
• Composite: 22.92/100
• National rank: #7993
• State rank: #128 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Maricopa

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #28
• US rank: #5943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Maricopa, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 76,044
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 55,260
• Household income: $95,867
• Rent vs Own: 17.7% rent · 82.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 432.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 17% Black 13% Native American 3% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.89%
• Current HPI: 258.1461
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.78%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-96.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $299,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $309,000 ARMLS
• 2023-10-27 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2023-09-01 Listed $327,900 ARMLS
• 2022-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $345,000 Public Records
• 2022-06-30 Sold (MLS) $345,000 ARMLS
• 2022-06-14 Pending — ARMLS
• 2022-06-03 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2022-05-18 Listed $350,000 ARMLS
• 2005-06-15 Sold (Public Records) $7,608,250 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,650 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.