435 Horseshoe Dr · Kingsland, TX 78639

$99,200

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured public records · 143 Days on market

Built 2005 0.59 ac lot $59/sqft · 53% below area ↓ 37% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come see this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home on over a half acre with nice, large shop in back! Kitchen with plenty of cabinets and island, breakfast nook and Dining area. Lots of space to enjoy with plenty of trees.

Key facts

• Breakfast nook
• Dining area
• Plenty of cabinets

Tags

• PLENTY OF CABINETS
• BREAKFAST NOOK
• DINING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $526 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,161 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Llano ISD (town): math 40% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #359 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 435 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 121 units permitted in Llano County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $686 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Llano County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $56k (36%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,296 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.72%
• DSCR: 2.01
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $211,954
• List price: $99,200
• Delta: -53.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
495 Horseshoe Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,736 (+3%)	22mo	$315,000	$181	72
761 Horseshoe Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,566 (-7%)	12mo	$190,000	$121	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $17,502
• Equity at exit: $14,791

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.11×
• Total profit: $58,699
• Equity at exit: $8,577

Cash invested: $27,776 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78639

• Active inventory: 435
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,649 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$520
• Tax from tax record: −$215 /mo · $2,579/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $526

Break-even live

Break-even rent $983

Max offer price $99,200

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,800
• Closing costs: $2,976
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1636 Navajo Trl Kingsland, TX	3.0	2.0	1385	$1,550	$1.12	21d	1	0.26mi
1636 Navajo Trl Kingsland, TX	3.0	2.0	1385	$1,550	$1.12	14d	1	0.26mi
1749 Bluebonnet Ln Kingsland, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,800	$1.33	43d	1	0.36mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $99,200 Pending 143 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $99,200 Active 143 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $99,200 Active 142 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $99,200 Active 141 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $99,200 Active 140 DOM
6. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 208-char remark

   Show marketing remark (208 chars)

   Come see this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home on over a half acre with nice, large shop in back! Kitchen with plenty of cabinets and island, breakfast nook and Dining area. Lots of space to enjoy with plenty of trees.

7. 2026-05-05
   price $99,200 208-char remark

   Show marketing remark (208 chars)

   Come see this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home on over a half acre with nice, large shop in back! Kitchen with plenty of cabinets and island, breakfast nook and Dining area. Lots of space to enjoy with plenty of trees.

8. 2026-04-03
   price $117,800 208-char remark

   Show marketing remark (208 chars)

   Come see this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home on over a half acre with nice, large shop in back! Kitchen with plenty of cabinets and island, breakfast nook and Dining area. Lots of space to enjoy with plenty of trees.

9. 2026-03-03
   price $136,400 208-char remark

   Show marketing remark (208 chars)

   Come see this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home on over a half acre with nice, large shop in back! Kitchen with plenty of cabinets and island, breakfast nook and Dining area. Lots of space to enjoy with plenty of trees.

10. 2026-02-06
    status Active 208-char remark

    Show marketing remark (208 chars)

    Come see this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home on over a half acre with nice, large shop in back! Kitchen with plenty of cabinets and island, breakfast nook and Dining area. Lots of space to enjoy with plenty of trees.

11. 2025-11-15
    status Pending 208-char remark

    Show marketing remark (208 chars)

    Come see this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home on over a half acre with nice, large shop in back! Kitchen with plenty of cabinets and island, breakfast nook and Dining area. Lots of space to enjoy with plenty of trees.

12. 2025-10-10
    listed $155,000 Active 208-char remark

    Show marketing remark (208 chars)

    Come see this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home on over a half acre with nice, large shop in back! Kitchen with plenty of cabinets and island, breakfast nook and Dining area. Lots of space to enjoy with plenty of trees.

13. 2023-03-23
    soldstatus 544-char remark

    Show marketing remark (544 chars)

    Well maintained manufactured home with great porches on both the front and back on over one-half acre in Kingsland! One owner that has taken great care of this property. Nice shed with loft and power at back of property for all of your storage and hobby needs. Lot has many nice trees. FLOORING ALLOWANCE of $4200.00 offered with acceptable Contract. Open plan with split bedrooms. Island kitchen open to dining and living; good countertop space and cabinets, additional breakfast area in kitchen. 2-car carport. Metal roof. Take a look today!!

14. 2020-09-21
    soldstatus
15. 2020-07-25
    listed $157,000 544-char remark

    Show marketing remark (544 chars)

    Well maintained manufactured home with great porches on both the front and back on over one-half acre in Kingsland! One owner that has taken great care of this property. Nice shed with loft and power at back of property for all of your storage and hobby needs. Lot has many nice trees. FLOORING ALLOWANCE of $4200.00 offered with acceptable Contract. Open plan with split bedrooms. Island kitchen open to dining and living; good countertop space and cabinets, additional breakfast area in kitchen. 2-car carport. Metal roof. Take a look today!!

16. 2007-05-24
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,579 · $215/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,579 · $215/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 26% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,784
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,557
• − Property taxes: −$2,579
• − Insurance: −$496
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,583
• − Management: −$1,583
• − Depreciation: −$2,886
• Taxable income: $5,100
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,224
• After-tax cash flow: $5,087/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Llano ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827810
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,746
• Composite: 35.42/100
• National rank: #4940
• State rank: #359 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kingsland

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1161
• US rank: #20293

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kingsland, TX
• County: Llano County · 16,310 people
• City population: 8,719
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 8,719
• Household income: $57,742
• Rent vs Own: 26.0% rent · 74.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 202.0

Population outlook (Llano County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,847 people
• By 2030: 21,350 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 22,281 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 23,173 · +11.2%
• By 2075: 25,526 · +22.4%
• By 2100: 25,866 · +24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 15%

Political lean MEDSL · Llano

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.9) · D 19.2% · R 80.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -52.2pp · 2024: -60.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.9 2020: R+60.1 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+60.4 2008: R+52.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -123.30%
• Current HPI: 219.8651
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-36.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $99,200 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $117,800 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $136,400 Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-06 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2025-11-15 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2025-10-10 Listed $155,000 Unlock MLS
• 2023-03-23 Sold (MLS) — HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2020-09-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-07-25 Listed $157,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2007-05-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,579 · -4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.