20515 Forest Stream Dr · Atascocita, TX 77346

$352,500

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,673 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1994 8,258 sqft lot $132/sqft · 19% below area Est $438k · 19% under $52/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you're looking for a home that stands out from the rest, you've found it! This fabulous, 5 bedroom, 3.5 bathroom master down (4th bedroom upstairs is perfect office or guest room with its own bathroom) home in Atascocita Shores is a must see. This gorgeous two-story brick home is just what you have been waiting for. A spa like master bathroom is what you need in your life. The pool and backyard will host birthday parties and weekend bbq's over the years. .. but most importantly, it will give you a place to call a piece of this world your own. Hang out by the water with friends, weekends spent in this backyard will ensure years of wonderful memories to come.

Key facts

• Lake houston access
• Large game room
• 8,258 sq ft lot

Tags

• WELL APPOINTED KITCHEN
• GROUND FLOOR PRIMARY SUITE
• LARGE GAME ROOM
• FRESHLY SERVICED POOL
• LAKE HOUSTON ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Disclosures: Municipal Utility District Disclosure, Seller Disclosure
• Financial info: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Part of Atascocita CIA; Annual association fee ($625); Community amenities include clubhouse, pool, tennis courts, pickleball, basketball and sport courts, playground, dog park, trails, park, picnic area, marina/boat dock/boat ramp, beach access/rights

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces); Driveway parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1994; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Private pool (gunite) and access to association pool amenities; Near golf course; Located in a subdivision; Smoke detectors

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (16x14); Four additional bedrooms on the second floor (approx. 13x12, 12x11, 12x10, 12x1)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom; Double vanity in primary or shared bath(s); Separate shower
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; High ceilings; Vaulted ceilings; Kitchen open to family room; Separate shower; Double vanity; Loft/bonus room
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $352k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-116 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $332k (5.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $337k (4.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $332k (5.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.1% in Atascocita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pineforest El (math 32% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 609 students, 49% FRL); Atascocita Middle (math 35% / reading 40%, grade F, #736 of 1,662 statewide, top 45%, 1,027 students, 50% FRL); Atascocita H S (math 41% / reading 52%, grade D-, #621 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 3,829 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 669 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($122k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($342k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $331,985 (5.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.60%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $437,611
• List price: $352,500
• Delta: -19.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20403 Atascocita Shores Dr	0.20mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,805 (+5%)	2mo	$344,900	$123	73
8219 Magnolia Glen Dr	0.17mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,855 (+7%)	5mo	$359,900	$126	70
20307 Atascocita Shores Dr	0.42mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,737 (+2%)	6mo	$349,900	$128	62
20334 Spoonwood Dr	0.21mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,016 (+13%)	4mo	$399,900	$133	60
20402 Dawnmist Ct	0.51mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,722 (+2%)	10mo	$290,000	$107	60
8218 Magnolia Glen Dr	0.20mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,332 (-13%)	7mo	$440,000	$189	59
20322 Acapulco Cove Dr	0.39mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,448 (-8%)	6mo	$429,900	$176	58
8518 Rebawood Dr	0.69mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,832 (+6%)	4mo	$300,000	$106	50
7627 Water Wood Trl	0.60mi	5/3.5	3,028 (+13%)	1mo	$519,000	$171	45
20118 Magnolia Bend Dr	0.65mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,456 (-8%)	12mo	$245,000	$100	41
8002 17th Green Dr	0.74mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,784 (+4%)	11mo	$448,400	$161	40
8519 Rebawood Dr	0.66mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,014 (+13%)	10mo	$339,900	$113	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 0.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-42,538
• Equity at exit: $85,865

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-53,168
• Equity at exit: $90,828

Cash invested: $98,700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77346

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 669
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,371 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,849
• Tax from tax record: −$665 /mo · $7,984/yr
• Insurance: −$147
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$52
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$708
• Net cashflow: $-116

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,518

Max offer price $331,985

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $88,125
• Closing costs: $10,575
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19706 Water Point Trl Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2753	$2,550	$0.93	24d	1	0.81mi
19603 Fairway Island Dr Humble, TX	5.0	2.5	3329	$6,500	$1.95	24d	1	0.93mi
20823 Water Point Trl Humble, TX	4.0	3.5	2550	$2,525	$0.99	22d	1	1.39mi
20906 Greenfield Trl Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2603	$2,200	$0.85	43d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $52 · $624/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $352,500 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $352,500 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $352,500 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   price $352,500 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $375,400 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $375,400 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $375,400 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $375,400 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $375,400 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $375,400 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $375,400 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $375,400 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $375,400 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $375,400 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $375,400 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    listed $382,900 Active 814-char remark
17. 2026-03-22
    historical $3,449
18. 2026-03-19
    listed $3,449
19. 2025-04-08
    historical $2,759
20. 2025-04-05
    historical $2,759
21. 2025-04-03
    price $2,759
22. 2025-04-02
    price $2,759
23. 2025-03-27
    price $2,899
24. 2025-03-26
    price $2,899
25. 2025-03-23
    price $3,049
26. 2025-03-22
    price $3,049
27. 2025-03-19
    price $3,199
28. 2025-03-06
    price $3,299
29. 2025-03-05
    price $3,299
30. 2025-02-27
    price $3,399
31. 2025-02-26
    price $3,399
32. 2025-02-25
    price $3,499
33. 2025-02-22
    price $3,499
34. 2025-02-20
    listed $4,499
35. 2025-02-19
    listed $4,499
36. 2025-02-07
    historical $3,269
37. 2025-01-31
    historical $3,269
38. 2025-01-31
    listed $3,269
39. 2025-01-29
    price $3,269
40. 2025-01-28
    listed $3,265
41. 2019-02-05
    soldstatus
42. 2019-02-04
    soldstatus Sold 668-char remark

    Show marketing remark (668 chars)

    If you're looking for a home that stands out from the rest, you've found it! This fabulous, 5 bedroom, 3.5 bathroom master down (4th bedroom upstairs is perfect office or guest room with its own bathroom) home in Atascocita Shores is a must see. This gorgeous two-story brick home is just what you have been waiting for. A spa like master bathroom is what you need in your life. The pool and backyard will host birthday parties and weekend bbq's over the years. .. but most importantly, it will give you a place to call a piece of this world your own. Hang out by the water with friends, weekends spent in this backyard will ensure years of wonderful memories to come.

43. 2019-01-24
    status Pending 668-char remark

    Show marketing remark (668 chars)

    If you're looking for a home that stands out from the rest, you've found it! This fabulous, 5 bedroom, 3.5 bathroom master down (4th bedroom upstairs is perfect office or guest room with its own bathroom) home in Atascocita Shores is a must see. This gorgeous two-story brick home is just what you have been waiting for. A spa like master bathroom is what you need in your life. The pool and backyard will host birthday parties and weekend bbq's over the years. .. but most importantly, it will give you a place to call a piece of this world your own. Hang out by the water with friends, weekends spent in this backyard will ensure years of wonderful memories to come.

44. 2019-01-18
    status Option Pending 668-char remark

    Show marketing remark (668 chars)

    If you're looking for a home that stands out from the rest, you've found it! This fabulous, 5 bedroom, 3.5 bathroom master down (4th bedroom upstairs is perfect office or guest room with its own bathroom) home in Atascocita Shores is a must see. This gorgeous two-story brick home is just what you have been waiting for. A spa like master bathroom is what you need in your life. The pool and backyard will host birthday parties and weekend bbq's over the years. .. but most importantly, it will give you a place to call a piece of this world your own. Hang out by the water with friends, weekends spent in this backyard will ensure years of wonderful memories to come.

45. 2018-12-11
    price $298,000 668-char remark

    Show marketing remark (668 chars)

    If you're looking for a home that stands out from the rest, you've found it! This fabulous, 5 bedroom, 3.5 bathroom master down (4th bedroom upstairs is perfect office or guest room with its own bathroom) home in Atascocita Shores is a must see. This gorgeous two-story brick home is just what you have been waiting for. A spa like master bathroom is what you need in your life. The pool and backyard will host birthday parties and weekend bbq's over the years. .. but most importantly, it will give you a place to call a piece of this world your own. Hang out by the water with friends, weekends spent in this backyard will ensure years of wonderful memories to come.

46. 2018-12-10
    listed $325,000 Active 668-char remark

    Show marketing remark (668 chars)

    If you're looking for a home that stands out from the rest, you've found it! This fabulous, 5 bedroom, 3.5 bathroom master down (4th bedroom upstairs is perfect office or guest room with its own bathroom) home in Atascocita Shores is a must see. This gorgeous two-story brick home is just what you have been waiting for. A spa like master bathroom is what you need in your life. The pool and backyard will host birthday parties and weekend bbq's over the years. .. but most importantly, it will give you a place to call a piece of this world your own. Hang out by the water with friends, weekends spent in this backyard will ensure years of wonderful memories to come.

47. 2018-08-13
    soldstatus
48. 2018-08-09
    soldstatus
49. 2018-07-23
    historical
50. 2018-07-21
    price $249,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,984 · $665/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,984 · $665/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,452
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,745
• − Property taxes: −$7,984
• − Insurance: −$2,560
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,236
• − Management: −$3,236
• − HOA: −$624
• − Depreciation: −$10,255
• Taxable loss: −$7,188
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,725
• After-tax cash flow: $332/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 79,538
• Household income: $122,241
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1072.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 218.0478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+3.7% since first listed

49 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $352,500 HARMLS
• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $375,400 HARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $382,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-22 Rental Removed $3,449 Tricon
• 2026-03-19 Listed for Rent $3,449 Tricon
• 2025-04-08 Rental Removed $2,759 HARMLS
• 2025-04-05 Rental Removed $2,759 RENT.
• 2025-04-03 Price Changed $2,759 HARMLS
• 2025-04-02 Price Changed $2,759 RENT.
• 2025-03-27 Price Changed $2,899 HARMLS
• 2025-03-26 Price Changed $2,899 RENT.
• 2025-03-23 Price Changed $3,049 HARMLS
• 2025-03-22 Price Changed $3,049 RENT.
• 2025-03-19 Price Changed $3,199 RENT.
• 2025-03-06 Price Changed $3,299 HARMLS
• 2025-03-05 Price Changed $3,299 RENT.
• 2025-02-27 Price Changed $3,399 HARMLS
• 2025-02-26 Price Changed $3,399 RENT.
• 2025-02-25 Price Changed $3,499 HARMLS
• 2025-02-22 Price Changed $3,499 RENT.
• 2025-02-20 Listed for Rent $4,499 HARMLS
• 2025-02-19 Listed for Rent $4,499 RENT.
• 2025-02-07 Rental Removed $3,269 HARMLS
• 2025-01-31 Rental Removed $3,269 RENT.
• 2025-01-31 Listed for Rent $3,269 HARMLS
• 2025-01-29 Price Changed $3,269 RENT.
• 2025-01-28 Listed for Rent $3,265 RENT.
• 2019-02-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-02-04 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2019-01-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-01-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-12-11 Price Changed $298,000 HARMLS
• 2018-12-10 Listed $325,000 HARMLS
• 2018-08-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-08-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-07-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2018-07-21 Price Changed $249,500 HARMLS
• 2018-04-26 Price Changed $295,000 HARMLS
• 2018-03-10 Listed $309,000 HARMLS
• 2018-01-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2017-11-19 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2017-11-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2017-10-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-10-26 Listed $179,998 HARMLS
• 2017-01-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2016-09-02 Price Changed $299,000 HARMLS
• 2016-07-20 Listed $340,000 HARMLS
• 1994-12-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,984 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.