639 La 1204 Hwy · Ball, LA 71405

$193,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,397 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 120 Days on market

Built 2014 0.28 ac lot Est $190k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• ARV discount +6.8/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

100% MOVE IN READY 100% FINANCING AVAILABLE BEAUTIFULLY UPDATED THROUGHOUT, THIS 3 BEDROOM, 2 BATHROOM HOME HAS NEW FLOORING, NEW FIXTURES, NEW CUSTOM APPLIANCES, NEW PAINT AND IS AWAITING ITS NEW OWNER. CALL FOR A SHOWING TODAY!!

Key facts

• 0.28 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 2014

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $193k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $16 ($189/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (22.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#87 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Rapides Parish (urban): math 29% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #31 of 98 in LA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 239 units permitted in Rapides Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rapides County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,136 (22.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.35%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $189,992
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
639 La 1204 Hwy	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,364 (-2%)	1mo	$185,000	$136	96
6600 Longleaf Trce	0.23mi	3/1.5	1,321 (-5%)	5mo	$158,000	$120	74
6209 Ball Loop	0.29mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,540 (+10%)	1mo	$219,000	$142	59
6606 Eastbrook Trce	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-7%)	20mo	$169,900	$131	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-30,354
• Equity at exit: $28,777

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-25,477
• Equity at exit: $16,687

Cash invested: $54,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71405

• Home prices YoY: -23.3%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,491 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,012
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $839/yr
• Insurance: −$80
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $16

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,471

Max offer price $193,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $125	-5% $70	+0% $16	+5% $-39	+10% $-94
Rent	-10% $-102	-5% $-43	+0% $16	+5% $75	+10% $134
Rate	-1.0pp $113	-0.5pp $65	base $16	+0.5pp $-34	+1.0pp $-85

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,250
• Closing costs: $5,790
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-13
   price $193,000
3. 2026-01-30
   price $195,500
4. 2025-12-15
   listed $199,500 Active
5. 2025-03-19
   listed $154,995 Active
6. 2020-06-27
   listed $145,000
7. 2015-03-09
   listed $135,900
8. 2014-10-01
   listed $139,900
9. 2014-01-22
   listed $139,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $839 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,062 · $88/mo
• Expected delta: +$223/yr (+$19/mo · 26.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,896
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,811
• − Property taxes: −$839
• − Insurance: −$965
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,432
• − Management: −$1,432
• − Depreciation: −$5,615
• Taxable loss: −$3,196
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$767
• After-tax cash flow: $956/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rapides Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201290
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -29.00%
• Median HH income: $41,057
• Composite: 30.68/100
• National rank: #6179
• State rank: #31 of 98 in LA

Livability — Ball

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #87
• US rank: #9588

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ball, LA
• City population: 5,384
• Population (ZIP): 5,384

Population outlook (Rapides County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 133,047 people
• By 2030: 132,333 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 129,355 · -2.8%
• By 2050: 124,535 · -6.4%
• By 2075: 110,338 · -17.1%
• By 2100: 88,641 · -33.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 5% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Italian 2% English 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Rapides

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.8) · D 31.0% · R 67.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.1pp toward R · 2008: -28.7pp · 2024: -36.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.8 2020: R+32.1 2016: R+32.5 2012: R+29.6 2008: R+28.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -63.75%
• Current HPI: 209.5849
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+38.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Pending — AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $193,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $195,500 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-12-15 Listed $199,500 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-03-19 Listed $154,995 AcadianaMLS
• 2020-06-27 Listed $145,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2015-03-09 Listed $135,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2014-10-01 Listed $139,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2014-01-22 Listed $139,900 AcadianaMLS

Property tax history

+15.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $839 · -52.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.