3300 E Fry Blvd #3 · Sierra Vista, AZ 85635

$79,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Manufactured · 65 Days on market

Built 1986 Fair condition 3,900 sqft lot $53/sqft · 13% above area Est $70k · 13% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• ARV discount +1.6/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come home to an oasis in town! Upon entering Thunderbird MH Park, Follow the red arrows to your new home! Just past the office, take the first left, then follow the road to the end where house #3 is located. The cul-de-sac is quiet and peaceful. Home rests on a solid block foundation. Beautifully landscaped lot in a secluded location and yard that is enclosed by a chainlink fence. There are large shade trees, a peach tree and a fig tree that produce amazing fruit! A huge jasmine vine shades the carport. The covered front porch leads to a large addition - this could be used as an office or an extra bedroom. New hot water heater in 2025. All major AC components have been replaced. Sprinkler system in front yard. Two sheds to store tools and extras.

Key facts

• 3,900 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1986

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $607 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.5% vs local median 4.3% in Sierra Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#5 in AZ, #1,805 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Sierra Vista Unified District (4175) (urban): math 27% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #93 of 249 in AZ (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 176 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 437 units permitted in Cochise County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $550 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cochise County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,730 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.73%
• DSCR: 2.46
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $70,300
• List price: $79,500
• Delta: 13.09%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $21,520
• Equity at exit: $11,854

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.34×
• Total profit: $52,042
• Equity at exit: $6,874

Cash invested: $22,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85635

• Home prices YoY: -32.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 176
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,464 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$417
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$99 /mo · $1,192/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $607

Break-even live

Break-even rent $695

Max offer price $79,500

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,875
• Closing costs: $2,385
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
165 Park Pl Sierra Vista, AZ	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,350	$1.12	44d	1	0.27mi
3733 Sparrow Dr Sierra Vista, AZ	3.0	2.0	1866	$1,550	$0.83	44d	1	0.28mi
3865 Redwing Pl Sierra Vista, AZ	3.0	2.0	1775	$1,550	$0.87	44d	1	0.44mi
3547 Briarwood Dr Sierra Vista, AZ	3.0	2.0	1686	$2,100	$1.25	44d	1	0.47mi
4196 Calle Ladero Sierra Vista, AZ	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,500	$1.15	44d	1	1.02mi
4933 Marconi Dr Sierra Vista, AZ	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,325	$1.06	44d	1	1.26mi
4420 Buena Loma Way Apt D Sierra Vista, AZ	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,100	$0.94	44d	1	1.27mi
4410 Buena Loma Way Unit D Sierra Vista, AZ	2.0	2.0	1070	$1,025	$0.96	44d	1	1.27mi
800 N Lenzner Ave Sierra Vista, AZ	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,070	$1.02	44d	1	1.29mi
1205 Cottonwood Dr Sierra Vista, AZ	3.0	2.0	1051	$1,400	$1.33	44d	1	1.38mi
1201 Colombo Ave Sierra Vista, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	893	$1,592	$1.78	44d	15	1.47mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $79,500 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,500 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,500 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,500 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,500 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $79,500 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $79,500 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,500 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,500 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,500 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $79,500 Active 50 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,500 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,500 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,500 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,500 Active 46 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $79,500 Active 45 DOM
17. 2026-04-14
    listed $79,500 Active 762-char remark

    Show marketing remark (762 chars)

    Come home to an oasis in town! Upon entering Thunderbird MH Park, Follow the red arrows to your new home! Just past the office, take the first left, then follow the road to the end where house #3 is located. The cul-de-sac is quiet and peaceful. Home rests on a solid block foundation. Beautifully landscaped lot in a secluded location and yard that is enclosed by a chainlink fence. There are large shade trees, a peach tree and a fig tree that produce amazing fruit! A huge jasmine vine shades the carport. The covered front porch leads to a large addition - this could be used as an office or an extra bedroom. New hot water heater in 2025. All major AC components have been replaced. Sprinkler system in front yard. Two sheds to store tools and extras.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,568
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,453
• − Property taxes: −$1,192
• − Insurance: −$398
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,405
• − Management: −$1,405
• − Depreciation: −$2,313
• Taxable income: $6,401
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,536
• After-tax cash flow: $5,750/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home requires moderate repairs and maintenance, with a focus on exterior siding, interior walls, and flooring. Landscaping also needs attention. Updates to these areas would significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Exterior siding — Weathered and stained
• Minor Interior flooring — Worn
• Minor Interior walls — Peeling paint

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace exterior siding — New siding improves curb appeal and durability
• Both Replace flooring — New flooring enhances interior aesthetics and comfort
• Both Landscaping — Trimmed and maintained landscaping improves curb appeal and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior siding · Weathered and stained	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Interior flooring · Worn	Minor	$500–3,000
Interior walls · Peeling paint	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$4,000–21,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace exterior siding — New siding improves curb appeal and durability ↑
• Both Replace flooring — New flooring enhances interior aesthetics and comfort ↑
• Both Landscaping — Trimmed and maintained landscaping improves curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sierra Vista Unified District (4175)
• NCES district ID: 0401460
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,463
• Composite: 29.17/100
• National rank: #6573
• State rank: #93 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Sierra Vista

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #1805

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sierra Vista, AZ
• County: Cochise County · 49,069 people
• City population: 49,069
• Metro: Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 34,193
• Household income: $61,580
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1129.0

Population outlook (Cochise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 113,402 people
• By 2030: 106,197 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 92,166 · -18.7%
• By 2050: 79,805 · -29.6%
• By 2075: 56,831 · -49.9%
• By 2100: 35,103 · -69.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 17% Black 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 14% Korean 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cochise

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 37.8% · R 61.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: -20.7pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+24.0 2008: R+20.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.93%
• Current HPI: 175.5821
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.00%
• Metro: Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $79,500 ARMLS