13 Orchard Dr #73 · Crestwood Village, NJ 08759

$164,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,192 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1983 0.25 ac lot $138/sqft · 34% below area Est $250k · 34% under $170/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into a home with a layout ready for your vision. As you enter, you're welcomed into the main living room, with two bedrooms and a full bathroom positioned off to the right, creating a practical setup for everyday living. Offering just under 1,200 square feet of single-level living, laminate flooring is featured through much of the main living area, leading into a dedicated dining space and adjoining kitchen with solid cabinet storage and room ready for updates and personalization. The layout provides a strong foundation for improvements, offering flexibility to refresh finishes while maintaining a functional flow. An attached one-car garage adds everyday convenience along with additional storage options. Out back, a private patio framed by mature arborvitaes creates a quiet outdoor setting, an ideal place to relax and enjoy a bit of added privacy. Located in the sought-after 55+ community of Crestwood Village 7, this home offers convenient access to shopping, dining, and major roadways. Whether you're looking to update a home to match your style or take on a rewarding improvement project, the potential here is hard to ignore.

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1983

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $144 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 5.5% in Crestwood Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#422 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A, housing A, health & safety B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 658 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $165k implies a 84% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.75%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $249,542
• List price: $164,900
• Delta: -33.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7 Eaton Ln #73	0.17mi	2/1.5	1,192 (0%)	1mo	$317,000	$266	90
14 Berry Hill Rd #72	0.27mi	2/1.5	1,192 (0%)	0mo	$214,000	$180	85
6 Orchard Dr #73	0.09mi	2/1.0	1,120 (-6%)	2mo	$160,000	$143	84
53 Central Avenue 72	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,192 (0%)	3mo	$160,000	$134	80
13 S Chestnut Ave #70	0.44mi	2/1.0	1,192 (0%)	1mo	$305,000	$256	79
8 Hummingbird Ln	0.19mi	2/1.5	1,120 (-6%)	1mo	$235,000	$210	78
55 Chelsea Dr #70	0.26mi	2/1.0	1,120 (-6%)	2mo	$150,000	$134	76
56 S Chestnut Ave	0.46mi	2/1.5	1,192 (0%)	2mo	$242,200	$203	75
10 Hartford Rd	0.29mi	2/1.5	1,120 (-6%)	2mo	$230,000	$205	73
51 S Chestnut Ave #72	0.42mi	2/1.0	1,120 (-6%)	1mo	$273,000	$244	70
14 Churchill Rd #71	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,120 (-6%)	3mo	$284,900	$254	57
21 Churchill Rd #71	0.67mi	2/1.5	1,120 (-6%)	2mo	$235,000	$210	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-17,363
• Equity at exit: $24,587

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-2,614
• Equity at exit: $14,258

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 658
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,904 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$257 /mo · $3,080/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$170
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $144

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,722

Max offer price $164,900

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $238	-5% $191	+0% $144	+5% $98	+10% $51
Rent	-10% $-6	-5% $69	+0% $144	+5% $220	+10% $295
Rate	-1.0pp $227	-0.5pp $186	base $144	+0.5pp $102	+1.0pp $58

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
49 Westport Dr #71 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.5	1192	$1,995	$1.67	45d	1	0.73mi
50 Westport Dr #71 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.0	1120	$2,200	$1.96	0d	1	0.73mi
1 Morning Glory Ln Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.5	1312	$1,200	$0.91	5d	1	1.27mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $170 · $2,040/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 1148-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1148 chars)

   Step into a home with a layout ready for your vision. As you enter, you're welcomed into the main living room, with two bedrooms and a full bathroom positioned off to the right, creating a practical setup for everyday living. Offering just under 1,200 square feet of single-level living, laminate flooring is featured through much of the main living area, leading into a dedicated dining space and adjoining kitchen with solid cabinet storage and room ready for updates and personalization. The layout provides a strong foundation for improvements, offering flexibility to refresh finishes while maintaining a functional flow. An attached one-car garage adds everyday convenience along with additional storage options. Out back, a private patio framed by mature arborvitaes creates a quiet outdoor setting, an ideal place to relax and enjoy a bit of added privacy. Located in the sought-after 55+ community of Crestwood Village 7, this home offers convenient access to shopping, dining, and major roadways. Whether you're looking to update a home to match your style or take on a rewarding improvement project, the potential here is hard to ignore.

2. 2026-04-30
   listed $164,900 Active 1148-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1148 chars)

   Step into a home with a layout ready for your vision. As you enter, you're welcomed into the main living room, with two bedrooms and a full bathroom positioned off to the right, creating a practical setup for everyday living. Offering just under 1,200 square feet of single-level living, laminate flooring is featured through much of the main living area, leading into a dedicated dining space and adjoining kitchen with solid cabinet storage and room ready for updates and personalization. The layout provides a strong foundation for improvements, offering flexibility to refresh finishes while maintaining a functional flow. An attached one-car garage adds everyday convenience along with additional storage options. Out back, a private patio framed by mature arborvitaes creates a quiet outdoor setting, an ideal place to relax and enjoy a bit of added privacy. Located in the sought-after 55+ community of Crestwood Village 7, this home offers convenient access to shopping, dining, and major roadways. Whether you're looking to update a home to match your style or take on a rewarding improvement project, the potential here is hard to ignore.

3. 2026-04-23
   historical $164,900 1148-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1148 chars)

   Step into a home with a layout ready for your vision. As you enter, you're welcomed into the main living room, with two bedrooms and a full bathroom positioned off to the right, creating a practical setup for everyday living. Offering just under 1,200 square feet of single-level living, laminate flooring is featured through much of the main living area, leading into a dedicated dining space and adjoining kitchen with solid cabinet storage and room ready for updates and personalization. The layout provides a strong foundation for improvements, offering flexibility to refresh finishes while maintaining a functional flow. An attached one-car garage adds everyday convenience along with additional storage options. Out back, a private patio framed by mature arborvitaes creates a quiet outdoor setting, an ideal place to relax and enjoy a bit of added privacy. Located in the sought-after 55+ community of Crestwood Village 7, this home offers convenient access to shopping, dining, and major roadways. Whether you're looking to update a home to match your style or take on a rewarding improvement project, the potential here is hard to ignore.

4. 2015-07-20
   soldstatus $89,500
5. 2014-04-11
   soldstatus $61,100
6. 2004-03-02
   soldstatus $117,000
7. 1984-10-01
   soldstatus $66,102

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,080 · $257/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,593 · $299/mo
• Expected delta: +$513/yr (+$43/mo · 16.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,853
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$3,080
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,828
• − Management: −$1,828
• − HOA: −$2,040
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable loss: −$782
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$188
• After-tax cash flow: $1,920/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Crestwood Village

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #422
• US rank: #15006

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 34,290
• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+149.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $164,900 MOMLS
• 2026-04-23 Coming Soon $164,900 MOMLS
• 2015-07-20 Sold (Public Records) $89,500 Public Records
• 2014-04-11 Sold (Public Records) $61,100 Public Records
• 2004-03-02 Sold (Public Records) $117,000 Public Records
• 1984-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $66,102 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,080 · +35.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.