2942 Sierra St · Riverbank, CA 95367

$2,995,000

12 bd · 6.0 ba · 4,404 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1987 0.72 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 18 units. confirmed

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks

Original owner is offering this well maintained 18 unit apartment complex featuring 2 bedrooms 1 bath units. Property includes covered parking for tenant convenience and consistant rental appeal. Investment opportunity with solid income potential!

Key facts

• Covered parking
• 0.72 acre lot
• 28 parking spots

Tags

• COVERED PARKING
• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• SOLID INCOME POTENTIAL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 18 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $3.00M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $10k ($120k/yr) — positive. Per door: $557/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($36k rent vs $3.00M).
• Recommended offer: $2.91M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 3.0% in Riverbank — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#757 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+, employment B; Watch: schools F, amenities D-, commute F.
• Riverbank Unified (suburban): math 16% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #424 of 517 in CA (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 123 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $36,141/mo this rent would consume 496% of the median local household income ($87k/yr) (locally 615% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $21k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $90k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $839k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($2.91M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $64k; list at $3.00M implies a 4580% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,905,150 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.36%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $152,923
• Equity at exit: $446,564

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $952,798
• Equity at exit: $258,953

Cash invested: $838,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95367

• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 124.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $36,141 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$15,706
• Tax from tax record: −$1,564 /mo · $18,767/yr
• Insurance: −$1,248
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$7,590
• Net cashflow: $10,033

Break-even live

Break-even rent $23,440

Max offer price $2,995,000

Occupancy floor 67%

18-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 18× units	2	1	$36,144
Total (18 units)			$36,141

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $748,750
• Closing costs: $89,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 1979-08-01
   soldstatus $64,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $18,767 · $1,564/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $22,762 · $1,897/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,995/yr (+$333/mo · 21.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 36 unhealthy d/yr today · 39 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $433,692
• − Mortgage interest: −$167,767
• − Property taxes: −$18,767
• − Insurance: −$14,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$34,695
• − Management: −$34,695
• − Depreciation: −$87,127
• Taxable income: $75,666
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$18,160
• After-tax cash flow: $102,242/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverbank Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600061
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $46,066
• Composite: 20.79/100
• National rank: #8511
• State rank: #424 of 517 in CA

Livability — Riverbank

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #757
• US rank: #22107

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Riverbank, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 25,593
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 25,593
• Household income: $87,487
• Rent vs Own: 27.8% rent · 72.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 615.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% White 31% Two or more races 29% Asian 5% Native American 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 55% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Russian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 50% English-only · Spanish 43% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -218.95%
• Current HPI: 310.4493
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 1979-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $18,767 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.