Kimbell Plan · Magnolia, TX 77354

$289,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,960 sqft · SingleFamily · 246 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

4-5 Bedrooms | 2-3 Bathrooms | Approx. 1,960 Sq. Ft. Designed with intention and built for connection, the Kimbell offers a bright, open single-story layout that makes everyday living feel effortless and inviting. From the welcoming foyer, you're drawn into the heart of the home where the kitchen, casual dining area, and great room flow together in one wide, comfortable space, perfect for quiet weeknights or lively gatherings. The kitchen features a central island, generous pantry storage, and clear sightlines to the main living area, while the covered patio just beyond creates an easy extension for outdoor relaxing or entertaining and can be extended for even more space. The primary suite is thoughtfully tucked along the rear of the home for added privacy, offering a peaceful retreat with a spacious bath, large walk-in closet, and options such as an extended closet, shower seat, or optional soaking tub. Three secondary bedrooms are grouped toward the front of the home near a shared full bath, creating a comfortable and functional layout for family members or guests. A central flex room adds versatility and may serve as a study, creative workspace, or convert into an optional fifth bedroom with a third bath for expanded living needs. With its open gathering spaces, private bedroom retreat, and flexible design options, the Kimbell adapts beautifully to every stage of life, offering comfort, functionality, and an easy, welcoming flow throughout.

Key facts

• Casual dining area
• Covered patio
• Great room

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• CASUAL DINING AREA
• GREAT ROOM
• COVERED PATIO
• OWNER'S SUITE
• SPACIOUS BATH

🏗️ New construction. The $289,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $273,116.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-123 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $255k (12.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (23.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (23.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 246 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $223,286 (23.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 246 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.94%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $273,116
• List price: $289,990
• Delta: 6.18%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12751 Dina Springs Ln	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,978 (+1%)	0mo	$269,990	$136	96
12735 Dina Springs Ln	0.08mi	4/3.0	2,026 (+3%)	3mo	$319,990	$158	84
40716 Pessi Rd	0.23mi	4/2.5	1,889 (-4%)	2mo	$268,990	$142	80
12743 Dina Springs Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,810 (-8%)	1mo	$254,990	$141	79
12871 Hannah Springs Ln	0.07mi	4/2.5	2,140 (+9%)	1mo	$299,990	$140	79
12706 Dina Springs Ln	0.15mi	4/2.0	2,087 (+6%)	6mo	$288,990	$138	77
40639 Mostyn Lake Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,748 (-11%)	5mo	$282,990	$162	74
40756 Mostyn Lake Dr	0.26mi	4/3.5	2,035 (+4%)	4mo	$309,000	$152	72
12428 Southern Trail Ct	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,902 (-3%)	7mo	$275,000	$145	69
40696 Pessi Rd	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,748 (-11%)	6mo	$282,990	$162	67
40728 Pessi Dr	0.24mi	4/2.5	2,140 (+9%)	9mo	$292,990	$137	64
40656 Pessi Rd	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,676 (-14%)	8mo	$249,990	$149	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.77×
• Total profit: $135,051
• Equity at exit: $246,044

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.14×
• Total profit: $393,311
• Equity at exit: $530,604

Cash invested: $76,472 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,233 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,432
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$341 /mo · $4,097/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $-123

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,389

Max offer price $255,248

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,279
• Closing costs: $8,193
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
40700 Pessi Rd Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1240	$2,100	$1.69	43d	1	0.24mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,990 Active 246 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,990 Active 245 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,990 Active 244 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,990 Active 243 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,990 Active 241 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,990 Active 237 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,990 Active 236 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $289,990 Active 235 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $289,990 Active 232 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,990 Active 231 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $289,990 Active 230 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,990 Active 229 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,990 Active 228 DOM
14. 2026-03-22
    price $279,990 1467-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1467 chars)

    4-5 Bedrooms | 2-3 Bathrooms | Approx. 1,960 Sq. Ft. Designed with intention and built for connection, the Kimbell offers a bright, open single-story layout that makes everyday living feel effortless and inviting. From the welcoming foyer, you're drawn into the heart of the home where the kitchen, casual dining area, and great room flow together in one wide, comfortable space, perfect for quiet weeknights or lively gatherings. The kitchen features a central island, generous pantry storage, and clear sightlines to the main living area, while the covered patio just beyond creates an easy extension for outdoor relaxing or entertaining and can be extended for even more space. The primary suite is thoughtfully tucked along the rear of the home for added privacy, offering a peaceful retreat with a spacious bath, large walk-in closet, and options such as an extended closet, shower seat, or optional soaking tub. Three secondary bedrooms are grouped toward the front of the home near a shared full bath, creating a comfortable and functional layout for family members or guests. A central flex room adds versatility and may serve as a study, creative workspace, or convert into an optional fifth bedroom with a third bath for expanded living needs. With its open gathering spaces, private bedroom retreat, and flexible design options, the Kimbell adapts beautifully to every stage of life, offering comfort, functionality, and an easy, welcoming flow throughout.

15. 2026-01-31
    price $284,990 1467-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1467 chars)

    4-5 Bedrooms | 2-3 Bathrooms | Approx. 1,960 Sq. Ft. Designed with intention and built for connection, the Kimbell offers a bright, open single-story layout that makes everyday living feel effortless and inviting. From the welcoming foyer, you're drawn into the heart of the home where the kitchen, casual dining area, and great room flow together in one wide, comfortable space, perfect for quiet weeknights or lively gatherings. The kitchen features a central island, generous pantry storage, and clear sightlines to the main living area, while the covered patio just beyond creates an easy extension for outdoor relaxing or entertaining and can be extended for even more space. The primary suite is thoughtfully tucked along the rear of the home for added privacy, offering a peaceful retreat with a spacious bath, large walk-in closet, and options such as an extended closet, shower seat, or optional soaking tub. Three secondary bedrooms are grouped toward the front of the home near a shared full bath, creating a comfortable and functional layout for family members or guests. A central flex room adds versatility and may serve as a study, creative workspace, or convert into an optional fifth bedroom with a third bath for expanded living needs. With its open gathering spaces, private bedroom retreat, and flexible design options, the Kimbell adapts beautifully to every stage of life, offering comfort, functionality, and an easy, welcoming flow throughout.

16. 2026-01-09
    price $281,990 1467-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1467 chars)

    4-5 Bedrooms | 2-3 Bathrooms | Approx. 1,960 Sq. Ft. Designed with intention and built for connection, the Kimbell offers a bright, open single-story layout that makes everyday living feel effortless and inviting. From the welcoming foyer, you're drawn into the heart of the home where the kitchen, casual dining area, and great room flow together in one wide, comfortable space, perfect for quiet weeknights or lively gatherings. The kitchen features a central island, generous pantry storage, and clear sightlines to the main living area, while the covered patio just beyond creates an easy extension for outdoor relaxing or entertaining and can be extended for even more space. The primary suite is thoughtfully tucked along the rear of the home for added privacy, offering a peaceful retreat with a spacious bath, large walk-in closet, and options such as an extended closet, shower seat, or optional soaking tub. Three secondary bedrooms are grouped toward the front of the home near a shared full bath, creating a comfortable and functional layout for family members or guests. A central flex room adds versatility and may serve as a study, creative workspace, or convert into an optional fifth bedroom with a third bath for expanded living needs. With its open gathering spaces, private bedroom retreat, and flexible design options, the Kimbell adapts beautifully to every stage of life, offering comfort, functionality, and an easy, welcoming flow throughout.

17. 2025-11-04
    price $279,990 1467-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1467 chars)

    4-5 Bedrooms | 2-3 Bathrooms | Approx. 1,960 Sq. Ft. Designed with intention and built for connection, the Kimbell offers a bright, open single-story layout that makes everyday living feel effortless and inviting. From the welcoming foyer, you're drawn into the heart of the home where the kitchen, casual dining area, and great room flow together in one wide, comfortable space, perfect for quiet weeknights or lively gatherings. The kitchen features a central island, generous pantry storage, and clear sightlines to the main living area, while the covered patio just beyond creates an easy extension for outdoor relaxing or entertaining and can be extended for even more space. The primary suite is thoughtfully tucked along the rear of the home for added privacy, offering a peaceful retreat with a spacious bath, large walk-in closet, and options such as an extended closet, shower seat, or optional soaking tub. Three secondary bedrooms are grouped toward the front of the home near a shared full bath, creating a comfortable and functional layout for family members or guests. A central flex room adds versatility and may serve as a study, creative workspace, or convert into an optional fifth bedroom with a third bath for expanded living needs. With its open gathering spaces, private bedroom retreat, and flexible design options, the Kimbell adapts beautifully to every stage of life, offering comfort, functionality, and an easy, welcoming flow throughout.

18. 2025-10-15
    listed $290,990 Active 1467-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1467 chars)

    4-5 Bedrooms | 2-3 Bathrooms | Approx. 1,960 Sq. Ft. Designed with intention and built for connection, the Kimbell offers a bright, open single-story layout that makes everyday living feel effortless and inviting. From the welcoming foyer, you're drawn into the heart of the home where the kitchen, casual dining area, and great room flow together in one wide, comfortable space, perfect for quiet weeknights or lively gatherings. The kitchen features a central island, generous pantry storage, and clear sightlines to the main living area, while the covered patio just beyond creates an easy extension for outdoor relaxing or entertaining and can be extended for even more space. The primary suite is thoughtfully tucked along the rear of the home for added privacy, offering a peaceful retreat with a spacious bath, large walk-in closet, and options such as an extended closet, shower seat, or optional soaking tub. Three secondary bedrooms are grouped toward the front of the home near a shared full bath, creating a comfortable and functional layout for family members or guests. A central flex room adds versatility and may serve as a study, creative workspace, or convert into an optional fifth bedroom with a third bath for expanded living needs. With its open gathering spaces, private bedroom retreat, and flexible design options, the Kimbell adapts beautifully to every stage of life, offering comfort, functionality, and an easy, welcoming flow throughout.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,794
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,299
• − Property taxes: −$4,097
• − Insurance: −$1,366
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,144
• − Management: −$2,144
• − Depreciation: −$7,945
• Taxable loss: −$6,199
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,488
• After-tax cash flow: $6/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It has a modern kitchen and bathrooms, and the landscaping is well-maintained. Some updates, such as painting the exterior siding and replacing the carpet, can increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Carpet can be replaced with hardwood or tile to increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient for potential buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Carpet can be replaced with hardwood or tile to increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient for potential buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-22 Price Changed $279,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-31 Price Changed $284,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $281,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $279,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-15 Listed $290,990 Zillow