603 N Rachel St · Falls City, TX 78113

$299,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,453 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 99 Days on market

Built 1977 0.50 ac lot $122/sqft · 20% below area Est $374k · 20% under ↓ 25% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +6.7/10.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this nice two-story home with plenty of space on a 0.5 acre lot. This home is located within walking distance of Falls City Schools and has two spacious living areas, four bedrooms and two and a half baths. The Primary bedroom and bath are on the main level with the other three bedrooms upstairs. The kitchen opens up to a nice family room with a brick fireplace. The kitchen and primary bath were remodeled back in 2018 with new counter tops and custom cabinets. This property is graced with mature trees and plenty of space in the front and back yards. Detached shop offers extra storage or can be converted into a nice workshop. Don't miss this chance to own a lovely home in the heart of Falls City and become part of this great community. Schedule a viewing today before this one is gone.

Key facts

• New counter tops
• 0.5 acre lot
• Brick fireplace

Tags

• 0.5 ACRE LOT
• TWO SPACIOUS LIVING AREAS
• BRICK FIREPLACE
• REMODELED KITCHEN
• REMODELED PRIMARY BATH
• NEW COUNTER TOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-638 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $186k (37.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (48.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $155k (48.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#64 in TX, #2,356 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Falls City ISD (rural): math 82% / reading 74% proficiency, ranked #6 of 826 in TX (top 1%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Falls City El (math 82% / reading 67%, grade A, #82 of 4,322 statewide, top 2%, 258 students, 19% FRL); Falls City H S (math 77% / reading 82%, grade A-, #40 of 1,632 statewide, top 3%, 184 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools at 19% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 78 units permitted in Karnes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Karnes County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,696 (48.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 48% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.52% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.15%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 16.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $373,675
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: -19.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
825 Chambord	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,505 (+2%)	3mo	$435,000	$174	73

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-4,720
• Equity at exit: $134,443

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $40,050
• Equity at exit: $207,193

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78113

• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 16.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,547 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$168 /mo · $2,011/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $-638

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,355

Max offer price $186,291

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-469	-5% $-553	+0% $-638	+5% $-723	+10% $-807
Rent	-10% $-760	-5% $-699	+0% $-638	+5% $-577	+10% $-516
Rate	-1.0pp $-487	-0.5pp $-562	base $-638	+0.5pp $-716	+1.0pp $-794

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-05-19
   historical Active Option 805-char remark

   Show marketing remark (805 chars)

   Welcome to this nice two-story home with plenty of space on a 0.5 acre lot. This home is located within walking distance of Falls City Schools and has two spacious living areas, four bedrooms and two and a half baths. The Primary bedroom and bath are on the main level with the other three bedrooms upstairs. The kitchen opens up to a nice family room with a brick fireplace. The kitchen and primary bath were remodeled back in 2018 with new counter tops and custom cabinets. This property is graced with mature trees and plenty of space in the front and back yards. Detached shop offers extra storage or can be converted into a nice workshop. Don't miss this chance to own a lovely home in the heart of Falls City and become part of this great community. Schedule a viewing today before this one is gone.

2. 2026-05-07
   price $299,000 805-char remark

   Show marketing remark (805 chars)

   Welcome to this nice two-story home with plenty of space on a 0.5 acre lot. This home is located within walking distance of Falls City Schools and has two spacious living areas, four bedrooms and two and a half baths. The Primary bedroom and bath are on the main level with the other three bedrooms upstairs. The kitchen opens up to a nice family room with a brick fireplace. The kitchen and primary bath were remodeled back in 2018 with new counter tops and custom cabinets. This property is graced with mature trees and plenty of space in the front and back yards. Detached shop offers extra storage or can be converted into a nice workshop. Don't miss this chance to own a lovely home in the heart of Falls City and become part of this great community. Schedule a viewing today before this one is gone.

3. 2026-03-10
   price $319,000 805-char remark

   Show marketing remark (805 chars)

   Welcome to this nice two-story home with plenty of space on a 0.5 acre lot. This home is located within walking distance of Falls City Schools and has two spacious living areas, four bedrooms and two and a half baths. The Primary bedroom and bath are on the main level with the other three bedrooms upstairs. The kitchen opens up to a nice family room with a brick fireplace. The kitchen and primary bath were remodeled back in 2018 with new counter tops and custom cabinets. This property is graced with mature trees and plenty of space in the front and back yards. Detached shop offers extra storage or can be converted into a nice workshop. Don't miss this chance to own a lovely home in the heart of Falls City and become part of this great community. Schedule a viewing today before this one is gone.

4. 2026-02-14
   listed $339,000 New 805-char remark

   Show marketing remark (805 chars)

   Welcome to this nice two-story home with plenty of space on a 0.5 acre lot. This home is located within walking distance of Falls City Schools and has two spacious living areas, four bedrooms and two and a half baths. The Primary bedroom and bath are on the main level with the other three bedrooms upstairs. The kitchen opens up to a nice family room with a brick fireplace. The kitchen and primary bath were remodeled back in 2018 with new counter tops and custom cabinets. This property is graced with mature trees and plenty of space in the front and back yards. Detached shop offers extra storage or can be converted into a nice workshop. Don't miss this chance to own a lovely home in the heart of Falls City and become part of this great community. Schedule a viewing today before this one is gone.

5. 2025-12-31
   historical
6. 2025-12-31
   historical
7. 2025-10-28
   price $329,000
8. 2025-10-27
   price $329,000
9. 2025-05-30
   price $339,000
10. 2025-05-29
    price $339,000
11. 2025-04-12
    price $349,000
12. 2025-04-11
    price $349,000
13. 2025-01-28
    price $359,000
14. 2025-01-27
    price $359,000
15. 2025-01-06
    price $365,000
16. 2025-01-06
    price $365,000
17. 2024-11-09
    price $375,000
18. 2024-11-09
    price $375,000
19. 2024-08-26
    price $379,900
20. 2024-08-26
    price $379,900
21. 2024-08-23
    listed $399,900 Active
22. 2024-08-09
    listed $399,900 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,011 · $168/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,472 · $456/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,461/yr (+$288/mo · 172.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,564
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$2,011
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,485
• − Management: −$1,485
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$13,359
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,206
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,450/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Falls City ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819020
• Math proficiency: 82% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 74% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,959
• Composite: 67.09/100
• National rank: #392
• State rank: #6 of 826 in TX

Livability — Falls City

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #64
• US rank: #2356

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Falls City, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,258

Population outlook (Karnes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,734 people
• By 2030: 18,027 · +7.7%
• By 2040: 20,893 · +24.9%
• By 2050: 23,689 · +41.6%
• By 2075: 31,064 · +85.6%
• By 2100: 34,752 · +107.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 17%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 32% Lithuanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 12% Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Karnes

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.1) · D 20.7% · R 78.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.6pp toward R · 2008: -21.6pp · 2024: -58.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.1 2020: R+52.1 2016: R+43.4 2012: R+35.9 2008: R+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-25.2% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Contingent — LERA
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $299,000 LERA
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $319,000 LERA
• 2026-02-14 Listed $339,000 LERA
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $329,000 LERA
• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $329,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-05-30 Price Changed $339,000 LERA
• 2025-05-29 Price Changed $339,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-04-12 Price Changed $349,000 LERA
• 2025-04-11 Price Changed $349,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-01-28 Price Changed $359,000 LERA
• 2025-01-27 Price Changed $359,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-01-06 Price Changed $365,000 LERA
• 2025-01-06 Price Changed $365,000 CTXMLS
• 2024-11-09 Price Changed $375,000 LERA
• 2024-11-09 Price Changed $375,000 CTXMLS
• 2024-08-26 Price Changed $379,900 LERA
• 2024-08-26 Price Changed $379,900 CTXMLS
• 2024-08-23 Listed $399,900 CTXMLS
• 2024-08-09 Listed $399,900 LERA

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,011 · -12.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.