111 Church Pkwy · North Syracuse, NY 13212

$189,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,395 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1950 9,500 sqft lot Est $266k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming three-bedroom Cape Cod located in the desirable North Syracuse School District. After 27 years filled with cherished memories, this home is ready for its next chapter with new owners. Situated on a flat lot, the property features a fully fenced backyard—perfect for outdoor enjoyment, pets, or entertaining. The one-car attached garage provides convenient access directly into the updated kitchen, which offers ample counter space and cabinetry for all your cooking and storage needs. The dining room is an inviting space, ideal for family meals or casual conversation. The freshly painted first floor is filled with natural light, creating a bright and welcoming atmo

Key facts

• Finished attic
• Attached garage
• Laundry area

Tags

• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• ATTACHED GARAGE
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• COVERED SCREENED IN PORCH
• FINISHED ATTIC
• LAUNDRY AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $327 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $189k).
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 5.1% in North Syracuse — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#379 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, crime D, amenities F.
• North Syracuse Central School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #402 of 590 in NY (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $189,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.42%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $266,445
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
111 Church Pkwy	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,395 (0%)	0mo	$249,900	$179	100
902 Leroy Rd	0.52mi	3/1.5	1,392 (-0%)	0mo	$290,000	$208	73
206 Church Pkwy	0.09mi	3/1.0	1,188 (-15%)	3mo	$240,000	$202	68
111 Randall Ter	0.14mi	3/1.5	1,199 (-14%)	2mo	$185,000	$154	66
101 Augusta Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,416 (+2%)	5mo	$264,000	$186	66
207 Church St	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,344 (-4%)	1mo	$235,000	$175	64
100 Keith Dr	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,340 (-4%)	0mo	$250,000	$187	64
7297 Greenbriar Rd	0.65mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,442 (+3%)	3mo	$275,000	$191	55
107 Colonial Dr	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,307 (-6%)	4mo	$260,000	$199	54
16 Bellewood Cir	0.32mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,200 (-14%)	5mo	$230,000	$192	52
907 Leroy Rd	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (+8%)	2mo	$229,000	$151	50
110 Oakley Dr	0.55mi	3/1.5	1,222 (-12%)	3mo	$250,000	$205	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-9,692
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $18,795
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13212

• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,206 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$346 /mo · $4,149/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $327

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,792

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
107 Stephen Pl Syracuse, NY	2.0	1.0	1199	$2,250	$1.88	43d	1	0.10mi
5548 Bear Rd Syracuse, NY	2.0	1.0–1.5	1100	$1,560	$1.42	13d	2	1.35mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-04
   listed $189,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,149 · $346/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,149 · $346/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,472
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$4,149
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,118
• − Management: −$2,118
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable income: $1,057
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$254
• After-tax cash flow: $3,671/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Syracuse Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3621210
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $62,904
• Composite: 41.93/100
• National rank: #3356
• State rank: #402 of 590 in NY

Livability — North Syracuse

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #379
• US rank: #6513

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime D Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 20,185
• Population (ZIP): 20,185

Population outlook (Onondaga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 467,894 people
• By 2030: 463,381 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 447,697 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 426,399 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 373,661 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 307,967 · -34.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Onondaga

• 2024 margin: D (+17.3) · D 58.6% · R 41.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: 17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.3 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -210.93%
• Current HPI: 317.7322
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-04-04 Listed $189,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,149 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.