2463 Virden Ridge Rd · Clay City, KY 40312

$45,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 816 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

0.27 ac lot Est $77k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks

Another investor opportunity awaits! This 2-bedroom, 1-bath property situated on a . 27-acre lot has been used as a rental and is ready for its next chapter as the sellers prepare for retirement. Whether you're looking to expand your portfolio, renovate, or create additional income potential, this property offers a great opportunity. Buyer to confirm all aspects of the property. Being sold as-is, with inspections welcome. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• 0.27 acre lot
• Listed 15 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Septic tank sewer
• Home design: One-story property; Total building area about 816
• Construction: Built with wood siding; Block foundation; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Block foundation; Shingle roof; Wood siding; Lot approximately 0.27 acres (public records); Public water; Not waterfront

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Total of 4 rooms; No fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $436 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($946 rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.9% vs local median 3.2% in Clay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#428 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Powell County (rural): math 14% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #156 of 165 in KY (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Clay City Elementary School (math 16% / reading 23%, grade F, #572 of 676 statewide, top 88%, 442 students, 68% FRL); Powell County Middle School (math 14% / reading 35%, grade F, #189 of 217 statewide, top 89%, 462 students, 68% FRL); Powell County Academy (11 students, 73% FRL).
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Powell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Powell County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $44,325 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.56%
• DSCR: 2.85
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $76,704
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
175 Red Bird Dr	0.21mi	2/1.0	900 (+10%)	9mo	$85,000	$94	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.63×
• Total profit: $20,518
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.26×
• Total profit: $53,715
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40312

• Home prices YoY: -4.4%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $946 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$56 /mo · $675/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$199
• Net cashflow: $436

Break-even live

Break-even rent $394

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $468	-5% $452	+0% $436	+5% $421	+10% $405
Rent	-10% $362	-5% $399	+0% $436	+5% $474	+10% $511
Rate	-1.0pp $459	-0.5pp $448	base $436	+0.5pp $425	+1.0pp $413

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-03
   statusdays on market $45,000 Pending 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $45,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $45,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $45,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $45,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-04-30
   listed $45,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥102°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,353
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$675
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$908
• − Management: −$908
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $4,807
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,154
• After-tax cash flow: $4,083/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Powell County
• NCES district ID: 2104890
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -19.00%
• Median HH income: $31,309
• Composite: 18.13/100
• National rank: #8967
• State rank: #156 of 165 in KY

Livability — Clay City

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #428
• US rank: #20794

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,156

Population outlook (Powell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,535 people
• By 2030: 11,076 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 10,174 · -11.8%
• By 2050: 9,307 · -19.3%
• By 2075: 7,369 · -36.1%
• By 2100: 5,806 · -49.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Powell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.4) · D 21.9% · R 76.3% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -38.9pp toward R · 2008: -15.5pp · 2024: -54.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.4 2020: R+48.6 2016: R+45.2 2012: R+24.9 2008: R+15.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.83%
• Current HPI: 192.7678
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Listed $45,000 ImagineMLS

Property tax history

-4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $63 · -42.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.