4242 Ashton Meadows Way · Wesley Chapel, FL 33543

$210,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,442 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 2007 6,043 sqft lot Est $275k · 24% under $239/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3 bedroom 2 bathroom 2 car garage attached villa has the view of a canal from the back of the home. Conveniently located close to I-75 and close to the Tampa Bay area. This home will not last!

Key facts

• 6,043 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Partially furnished
• Financial info: Total monthly fees: $239; Total annual fees: $2,868; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Qualified Property Management; Monthly HOA fee of $239 (pool included); Deed restrictions; Community sidewalks; Cats and dogs allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Water view: retention canal (canal view)
• Home design: Residential villa; Single-story (one level); Faces west; MPUD zoning; Homesteaded property
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as a villa
• Exterior features: Covered rear porch; Screened porch; Sliding doors; Sidewalk

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Garbage disposal; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Split bedroom floor plan; Inside utility/additional room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $255 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $210k).
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.7% in Wesley Chapel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#143 in FL, #2,137 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Double Branch Elementary School (math 58% / reading 62%, grade B-, #680 of 2,144 statewide, top 32%, 847 students, 31% FRL); Wesley Chapel High School (math 52% / reading 58%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 1,826 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 638 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $81k; list at $210k implies a 159% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.21%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $275,422
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4242 Ashton Meadows Way	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,442 (0%)	1mo	$211,500	$147	100
4247 Ashton Meadows Way	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,442 (0%)	14mo	$264,000	$183	87
4452 Ashton Meadows Way	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,436 (-0%)	10mo	$295,000	$205	81
4357 Ashton Meadows Way	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,596 (+11%)	8mo	$295,000	$185	69
4548 White Bay Cir	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,321 (-8%)	0mo	$309,000	$234	55
4508 Redcoat Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-10%)	2mo	$395,000	$304	50
4016 Fox Ridge Blvd	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,466 (+2%)	21mo	$269,000	$183	48
3749 Loury Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,572 (+9%)	14mo	$299,999	$191	44
3166 Malta Ave	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,599 (+11%)	8mo	$537,304	$336	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-24,417
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-25,998
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33543

• Home prices YoY: -24.0%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 638
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,304 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$137 /mo · $1,649/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$239
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $255

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,981

Max offer price $210,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4255 Ashton Meadows Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1545	$2,050	$1.33	24d	1	0.03mi
4013 Constantine Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	1574	$2,050	$1.30	12d	1	0.24mi
4729 White Bay Cir Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	1438	$2,000	$1.39	24d	1	0.63mi
4637 Fox Ridge Blvd Wesley Chapel, FL	2.0	2.0	924	$1,700	$1.84	24d	1	0.68mi
4416 Redcoat Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1658	$2,130	$1.28	12d	1	0.71mi
32132 Levering St Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1463	$2,034	$1.39	1d	9	0.74mi
4966 Avalon Park Blvd Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1608	$2,350	$1.46	24d	1	0.84mi
32437 Fish Hook Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	1648	$2,249	$1.36	10d	1	0.92mi
5227 Little Stream Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1601	$2,369	$1.48	16d	1	0.99mi
34002 Painthorse Way Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1022	$2,945	$2.88	2d	46	1.14mi
33780 Charleston Club Cir Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	977	$2,135	$2.19	2d	11	1.20mi
3060 Mountain Spruce Ter Wesley Chapel, FL	2.0	2.0	1831	$2,900	$1.58	24d	1	1.23mi
5699 Chorleywood Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,195	$1.46	24d	1	1.27mi
31810 Inkley Ct Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1617	$2,100	$1.30	17d	1	1.36mi
33976 Lusitano Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1251	$2,895	$2.31	12d	71	1.36mi
32942 Tulip Petal Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	3.0	1758	$2,400	$1.37	24d	1	1.43mi
32952 Tulip Petal Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,100	$1.26	4d	1	1.44mi
3587 Bellmeade Ct Wesley Chapel, FL	2.0	3.0	1541	$2,050	$1.33	24d	1	1.44mi
3587 Bellmeade Ct Unit 3587 Wesley Chapel, FL	2.0	2.5	1541	$2,050	$1.33	24d	1	1.44mi
32978 Tulip Petal Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1758	$1,975	$1.12	10d	1	1.45mi
4338 Fennwood Ct Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1649	$2,250	$1.36	24d	1	1.49mi
4350 Fennwood Ct Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1777	$2,000	$1.13	24d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $239 · $2,868/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-30
   listed $210,000 Active
3. 2011-09-22
   soldstatus $81,000
4. 2011-09-20
   soldstatus $81,000 197-char remark

   Show marketing remark (197 chars)

   This 3 bedroom 2 bathroom 2 car garage attached villa has the view of a canal from the back of the home. Conveniently located close to I-75 and close to the Tampa Bay area. This home will not last!

5. 2011-03-05
   listed $80,919 197-char remark

   Show marketing remark (197 chars)

   This 3 bedroom 2 bathroom 2 car garage attached villa has the view of a canal from the back of the home. Conveniently located close to I-75 and close to the Tampa Bay area. This home will not last!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,649 · $137/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,743 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$94/yr (+$8/mo · 5.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,653
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$1,649
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,212
• − Management: −$2,212
• − HOA: −$2,868
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$211
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$51
• After-tax cash flow: $3,114/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wesley Chapel

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #143
• US rank: #2137

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wesley Chapel, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 100,771
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,648
• Household income: $107,349
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 407.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 15% Black 12% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.13%
• Current HPI: 263.2513
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.37%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+159.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Listed $210,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-09-22 Sold (Public Records) $81,000 Public Records
• 2011-09-20 Sold (MLS) $81,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-03-05 Listed $80,919 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,649 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.