8300 Kateel Dr · Fairbanks, AK 99712

$85,000

1 bd · None ba · 456 sqft · Other public records · 228 Days on market

Built 2006 22 ac lot ↓ 47% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.4/30.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Recreational living at its best! This dry cabin sits on almost 22 acres and has a beautiful view of the Chatanika area. Located only 46 miles up the Steese Hwy in an established subdivision, this cabin can be accessible year round with the right vehicles, snowmachines, ATVs etc.

Key facts

• Chatanika area
• 22 acres
• 21.98 acre lot

Tags

• 22 ACRES
• CHATANIKA AREA
• ESTABLISHED SUBDIVISION
• ACCESSIBLE YEAR ROUND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/?-bath other listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $158 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($858 rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 4.9% in Fairbanks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#95 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Fairbanks North Star Borough School District (urban): math 33% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #10 of 21 in AK (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 149 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Fairbanks North Star Borough in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fairbanks North Star County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 228 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 228 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.95%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-3,759
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $9,544
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99712

• Home prices YoY: -24.2%
• Active inventory: 149
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $858 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $466/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$180
• Net cashflow: $158

Break-even live

Break-even rent $658

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $206	-5% $182	+0% $158	+5% $134	+10% $110
Rent	-10% $90	-5% $124	+0% $158	+5% $192	+10% $225
Rate	-1.0pp $200	-0.5pp $179	base $158	+0.5pp $136	+1.0pp $113

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $85,000 Active 228 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $85,000 Active 226 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 225 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 224 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 223 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 222 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $85,000 Active 220 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 219 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $85,000 Active 217 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $85,000 Active 216 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $85,000 Active 215 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $85,000 Active 211 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 210 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 209 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 208 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 207 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $85,000 Active 206 DOM
18. 2025-11-05
    listed $85,000 Active 279-char remark

    Show marketing remark (279 chars)

    Recreational living at its best! This dry cabin sits on almost 22 acres and has a beautiful view of the Chatanika area. Located only 46 miles up the Steese Hwy in an established subdivision, this cabin can be accessible year round with the right vehicles, snowmachines, ATVs etc.

19. 2025-07-30
    price $85,000
20. 2025-02-13
    listed $90,000 Active
21. 2024-03-28
    price $142,000
22. 2024-01-08
    status Active
23. 2023-07-05
    listed $160,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $466 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $739 · $62/mo
• Expected delta: +$273/yr (+$23/mo · 58.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,294
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$466
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$824
• − Management: −$824
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $522
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$125
• After-tax cash flow: $1,767/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairbanks North Star Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200600
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,697
• Composite: 35.5/100
• National rank: #4915
• State rank: #10 of 21 in AK

Livability — Fairbanks

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #95
• US rank: #21394

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 47,612
• Population (ZIP): 12,070

Population outlook (Fairbanks North Star County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,607 people
• By 2030: 102,796 · +1.2%
• By 2040: 104,748 · +3.1%
• By 2050: 107,598 · +5.9%
• By 2075: 118,829 · +16.9%
• By 2100: 127,151 · +25.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Native American 9% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Portuguese 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fairbanks North Star

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.35%
• Current HPI: 148.2472
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-46.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-05 Listed $85,000 GFBR
• 2025-07-30 Price Changed $85,000 GFBR
• 2025-02-13 Listed $90,000 GFBR
• 2024-03-28 Price Changed $142,000 AKMLS
• 2024-01-08 Relisted — AKMLS
• 2023-07-05 Listed $160,000 AKMLS

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $466 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.