118 Paradise Ln · Auburndale, FL 33823

$114,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1973 $66/mo HOA ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to easy Florida living in the desirable Ariana Shores 55+ Co-Op community! This charming 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath home offers comfort, convenience, and a peaceful setting to enjoy the best of lakefront community living. The home also features an irrigation system for added convenience. Residents of Ariana Shores enjoy wonderful community amenities, including a heated pool, shuffleboard courts, fishing dock, private boat ramp with direct access to beautiful Lake Arietta, community clubhouse, and laundry facility. The clubhouse hosts planned social activities and events throughout the year, making it easy to stay active and connected with neighbors and friends. This is a co-op community, a

Key facts

• Fishing dock
• Shuffleboard courts
• Private boat ramp

Tags

• LAKEFRONT COMMUNITY LIVING
• IRRIGATION SYSTEM
• HEATED POOL
• SHUFFLEBOARD COURTS
• FISHING DOCK
• PRIVATE BOAT RAMP

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Total living area reported as approximately 1,100 square feet; Lot about 0.09 acres (under 1/4 acre)
• HOA & community: HOA with annual fee ($800); Monthly HOA approximately $66.67; Buyer approval required for association; Association amenities: clubhouse, laundry, pool, shuffleboard court; Senior community; Pets allowed with limits (max ~20 lbs)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 1-car carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Residential mobile home (single wide); One story; Southwest facing; Crawlspace foundation
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Lake access (Lake Arietta / Lake Ariana); Irrigation equipment; Asphalt road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Split bedroom layout; 6 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: No laundry hook-ups inside

🏢 Co-op / cooperative unit. The $114,900 price buys shares in the cooperative corporation, not the real estate itself — so it isn't comparable to a fee-simple sale price, and the cashflow / cap-rate / 1%-rule cards below (which assume you own the property and can rent it out) don't apply here. Expect board approval and a monthly maintenance fee on top of the price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $294 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#48 in FL, #905 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute C-.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 476 active listings in the ZIP; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $794 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,176 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.96%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $384
• Equity at exit: $17,132

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $25,613
• Equity at exit: $9,934

Cash invested: $32,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33823

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 476
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$96 /mo · $1,149/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$66
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $294

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,028

Max offer price $114,900

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $359	-5% $326	+0% $294	+5% $261	+10% $229
Rent	-10% $183	-5% $239	+0% $294	+5% $349	+10% $404
Rate	-1.0pp $352	-0.5pp $323	base $294	+0.5pp $264	+1.0pp $234

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,725
• Closing costs: $3,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $66 · $792/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $114,900 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $114,900 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $114,900 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $114,900 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $114,900 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $114,900 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $114,900 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $114,900 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $114,900 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $114,900 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $114,900 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $114,900 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $114,900 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $114,900 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-20
    listed $114,900 Active
16. 2025-12-31
    historical
17. 2025-11-25
    price $85,000
18. 2025-09-17
    price $110,000
19. 2025-07-17
    price $124,000
20. 2025-02-24
    listed $128,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,149 · $96/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,149 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,801
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,436
• − Property taxes: −$1,149
• − Insurance: −$574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,344
• − Management: −$1,344
• − HOA: −$792
• − Depreciation: −$3,343
• Taxable income: $1,818
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$436
• After-tax cash flow: $3,090/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Auburndale

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #48
• US rank: #905

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Auburndale, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 41,779
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,779
• Household income: $71,485
• Rent vs Own: 24.8% rent · 75.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 821.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 13% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Philippines
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.70%
• Current HPI: 316.9436
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.18%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-10.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $114,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $85,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $110,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-17 Price Changed $124,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-24 Listed $128,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,149 · +7.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.