737 N 15th Ave · Elgin, OR 97827

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured public records · 106 Days on market

Built 1985 Fair condition 10,018 sqft lot $138/sqft · 18% below area Est $202k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to something you can create some equity in. Three bedrooms with an open floor plan. Nice quiet location, with a creek running next to it.Financeable through some lenders cash or conventional.

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Built 1985
• Listed 106 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $157 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#98 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, employment D+.
• Elgin SD 23 (rural): math 30% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #114 of 183 in OR (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 38 units permitted in Union County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Union County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,150 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.32%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $201,785
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -18.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
601 N 15th Ave	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+8%)	18mo	$155,000	$120	68
150 S 15th Ave	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-4%)	3mo	$175,000	$152	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-16,665
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,252
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97827

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Active inventory: 35
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $157

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,602

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
625 N 13th Ave Elgin, OR	3.0	1.0	1142	$1,800	$1.58	3d	1	0.11mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $165,000 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 97 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $165,000 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $165,000 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-03-03
    listed $165,000 Active 199-char remark

    Show marketing remark (199 chars)

    Welcome to something you can create some equity in. Three bedrooms with an open floor plan. Nice quiet location, with a creek running next to it.Financeable through some lenders cash or conventional.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone A · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥94°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$2,328
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,728
• − Management: −$1,728
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$701
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$168
• After-tax cash flow: $2,046/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires significant repairs and updates to improve its condition and value. The exterior, interior, and systems all need attention to bring the property up to a fair condition.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exterior siding — Significant damage and wear
• Major Roof — Missing shingles
• Major Paint — Chipped and peeling
• Major Bathroom fixtures — Outdated and worn
• Major Kitchen cabinets and countertops — Dated and worn

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting and repainting — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both New exterior siding — New siding can significantly improve the home's appearance and value
• Both New roof — A new roof will improve the home's structural integrity and curb appeal
• Both New bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can increase the home's appeal and value
• Both New kitchen cabinets and countertops — Up-to-date kitchen can attract more buyers and renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior siding · Significant damage and wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
Roof · Missing shingles	Major	$15,000–50,000
Paint · Chipped and peeling	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathroom fixtures · Outdated and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
Kitchen cabinets and countertops · Dated and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting and repainting — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both New exterior siding — New siding can significantly improve the home's appearance and value ↑
• Both New roof — A new roof will improve the home's structural integrity and curb appeal ↑
• Both New bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can increase the home's appeal and value ↑
• Both New kitchen cabinets and countertops — Up-to-date kitchen can attract more buyers and renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin SD 23
• NCES district ID: 4104590
• Math proficiency: 30% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $41,951
• Composite: 36.11/100
• National rank: #9488
• State rank: #114 of 183 in OR

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #5083

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elgin, OR
• Population (ZIP): 2,557

Population outlook (Union County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 25,207 people
• By 2030: 24,794 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 23,658 · -6.1%
• By 2050: 22,897 · -9.2%
• By 2075: 20,885 · -17.1%
• By 2100: 17,841 · -29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Union

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.6) · D 28.1% · R 68.7% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.6pp · 2024: -40.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.6 2020: R+40.4 2016: R+41.4 2012: R+30.8 2008: R+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.14%
• Current HPI: 212.464
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-03 Listed $165,000 RMLS

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $286 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.