47 Cuernavaca Dr · Sonoma, CA 95476

$230,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Manufactured · 127 Days on market

Built 1972 Good condition $213/sqft · 37% above area Est $168k · 37% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 55+ Sonoma Living in Pueblo Serena. Discover the best of Wine Country living in this immaculate, well-maintained manufactured home located in the desirable Pueblo Serena 55+ community. Situated on a quiet cul-de-sac in the heart of Sonoma, this 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence offers the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and low-maintenance living. Key Features: Light-Filled Interior: Featuring 1,080 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space with newer carpet, a reliable Trane furnace/AC unit and fresh, neutral paint. Spacious Floorplan: Features a comfortable layout, including a master bedroom with a large walk-in closet. Outdoor Living: Relax on your private, covered patio or tend to the low-maintenance yard, perfect for potted plants and gardening. Convenience & Amenities: Includes a dedicated covered carport for parking, an interior laundry room, and a storage shed. Location, Location, Location: Situated in a peaceful senior park, you are just minutes from the historic Sonoma Plaza, world-class dining, boutique shopping, parks, and the local hospital. Enjoy a serene, active community setting while being moments away from the heart of Sonoma's culture and charm. LOW RENT! Turnkey Condition - A Must See! This home is ready for you to move in and start enjoying the Sonoma lifestyle immediately.

Key facts

• Low-maintenance yard
• Quiet cul-de-sac
• Parking

Tags

• PUEBLO SERENA COMMUNITY
• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• LIGHT-FILLED INTERIOR
• PRIVATE COVERED PATIO
• LOW-MAINTENANCE YARD
• DEDICATED COVERED CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $230k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $972 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $230k).
• Recommended offer: $202k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 1.4% in Sonoma — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#146 in CA, #4,943 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Sonoma Valley Unified (town): math 27% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #849 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 265 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.8% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.11%
• DSCR: 1.81
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $167,500
• List price: $230,000
• Delta: 37.31%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
160 Chiquita Camino	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,120 (+4%)	1mo	$199,000	$178	89
270 Manuella Ln	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,040 (-4%)	2mo	$160,000	$154	83
341 El Castillo Vista Way #341	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,080 (0%)	10mo	$199,000	$184	81
148 Chiquita Camino	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,140 (+6%)	11mo	$140,000	$123	78
122 Paseo Palencia	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,000 (-7%)	9mo	$215,000	$215	74
314 Janero Pl	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,200 (+11%)	2mo	$190,000	$158	70
298 La Serena Dr	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,000 (-7%)	10mo	$145,000	$145	70
185 Pas Pajaros Calle	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,200 (+11%)	10mo	$145,000	$121	68
180 Pas Pajaros Calle	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,200 (+11%)	12mo	$215,000	$179	67
171 Chiquita Camino	0.09mi	2/1.5	1,160 (+7%)	18mo	$155,500	$134	67
213 Cazares Cir #213	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,160 (+7%)	19mo	$120,000	$103	64
312 Janero Pl	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,150 (+6%)	17mo	$115,000	$100	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.79% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $17,624
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $67,559
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95476

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,242 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$288 /mo · $3,450/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$681
• Net cashflow: $972

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,012

Max offer price $230,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,131	-5% $1,051	+0% $972	+5% $892	+10% $813
Rent	-10% $716	-5% $844	+0% $972	+5% $1,100	+10% $1,228
Rate	-1.0pp $1,088	-0.5pp $1,030	base $972	+0.5pp $912	+1.0pp $852

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
655 W Spain St Sonoma, CA	2.0	2.5	1349	$3,525	$2.61	15d	1	0.49mi
434 Bernice Ln Unit 1546207P Sonoma, CA	2.0	2.0	979	$4,564	$4.66	15d	1	0.52mi
790 2nd St W Sonoma, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	975	$2,660	$2.73	15d	3	0.58mi
342 Church St Sonoma, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$2,600	$3.71	45d	1	0.62mi
340 Church St Sonoma, CA	3.0	2.5	1282	$3,750	$2.93	45d	1	0.63mi
663 Spring Ln Sonoma, CA	2.0	1.0	1050	$3,200	$3.05	45d	1	0.64mi
210 Tuscany Pl Sonoma, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1200	$2,750	$2.29	15d	1	0.76mi
208 Todd Ave Sonoma, CA	3.0	2.5	1384	$3,800	$2.75	15d	1	0.79mi
1211 Broadway Unit 1213 Sonoma, CA	2.0	2.5	1200	$3,600	$3.00	24d	1	0.82mi
1207 Broadway Unit 1209 Sonoma, CA	2.0	2.5	1200	$3,750	$3.12	45d	1	0.82mi
1207 Broadway Sonoma, CA	2.0	2.5	1200	$3,600	$3.00	24d	1	0.82mi
21 Ramon St Sonoma, CA	2.0	2.0	1440	$2,250	$1.56	24d	1	0.85mi
19019 5th St W Sonoma, CA	3.0	2.0	1286	$3,400	$2.64	15d	1	1.02mi
336 Las Casitas Ct Sonoma, CA	2.0	1.5	1158	$2,500	$2.16	45d	1	1.21mi
126 Blue Wing Dr Sonoma, CA	2.0	2.0	1156	$2,975	$2.57	15d	2	1.23mi
126 Blue Wing Dr #11 Sonoma, CA	2.0	2.0	1156	$3,200	$2.77	15d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $230,000 Active 127 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $230,000 Active 124 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $230,000 Active 123 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $230,000 Active 122 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $230,000 Active 121 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $230,000 Active 119 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $230,000 Active 118 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $230,000 Active 116 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $230,000 Active 115 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $230,000 Active 114 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $230,000 Active 113 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $230,000 Active 110 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $230,000 Active 109 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $230,000 Active 108 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $230,000 Active 107 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $230,000 Active 106 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $230,000 Active 105 DOM
18. 2026-02-15
    listed $230,000 Active 1364-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1364 chars)

    Charming 55+ Sonoma Living in Pueblo Serena. Discover the best of Wine Country living in this immaculate, well-maintained manufactured home located in the desirable Pueblo Serena 55+ community. Situated on a quiet cul-de-sac in the heart of Sonoma, this 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence offers the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and low-maintenance living. Key Features: Light-Filled Interior: Featuring 1,080 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space with newer carpet, a reliable Trane furnace/AC unit and fresh, neutral paint. Spacious Floorplan: Features a comfortable layout, including a master bedroom with a large walk-in closet. Outdoor Living: Relax on your private, covered patio or tend to the low-maintenance yard, perfect for potted plants and gardening. Convenience & Amenities: Includes a dedicated covered carport for parking, an interior laundry room, and a storage shed. Location, Location, Location: Situated in a peaceful senior park, you are just minutes from the historic Sonoma Plaza, world-class dining, boutique shopping, parks, and the local hospital. Enjoy a serene, active community setting while being moments away from the heart of Sonoma's culture and charm. LOW RENT! Turnkey Condition - A Must See! This home is ready for you to move in and start enjoying the Sonoma lifestyle immediately.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,907
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$3,450
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,113
• − Management: −$3,113
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable income: $8,507
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,042
• After-tax cash flow: $9,621/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained manufactured home in Sonoma offers a comfortable and low-maintenance living experience with a good condition score and minimal repairs needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and property value.
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition and prevents water damage.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition and prevents water damage. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sonoma Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0637200
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $63,880
• Composite: 33.88/100
• National rank: #10355
• State rank: #849 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Sonoma

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #146
• US rank: #4943

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sonoma, CA
• County: Sonoma County · 449,805 people
• City population: 35,196
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• Population (ZIP): 35,196
• Household income: $105,374
• Rent vs Own: 32.8% rent · 67.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1218.0

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1116.03%
• Current HPI: 236.6408
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.79%
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-15 Listed $230,000 BAREIS