Discovery Plan · Richmond, TX 77469

$318,790

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,121 sqft · SingleFamily · 806 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

From the covered porch, you enter into the foyer, where stairs to the second floor are immediately in view. Continuing through, you arrive at the open family room, dining area, and kitchen. A powder bath is conveniently located off the kitchen and family room. Also off the kitchen are a pantry, a coat closet, and access to the two-car garage. Upstairs, a central loft leads to the primary bedroom, which includes a primary bath and a spacious walk-in closet. Three additional bedrooms-each with its own walk-in closet-share a full bath. A laundry room is also located on the second floor for added convenience.

Key facts

• Private backyard
• Granite countertops
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• PRIVATE BACKYARD

🏗️ New construction. The $318,790 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $319,100.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $319k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-391 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $262k (17.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (28.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (28.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.6% in Richmond — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#363 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Needville ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #95 of 826 in TX (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Needville El (math 58% / reading 53%, grade C, #587 of 4,322 statewide, top 14%, 1,129 students, 49% FRL); Needville Middle (math 56% / reading 56%, grade B-, #234 of 1,662 statewide, top 14%, 819 students, 45% FRL); Needville H S (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C-, #437 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 1,067 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 2204 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 120d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 82% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 806 days — a 12% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $229,598 (28.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 806 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.26%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $319,100
• List price: $318,790
• Delta: -0.10%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8311 Vacek Crossing Way	0.04mi	4/2.5	2,121 (0%)	2mo	$319,800	$151	95
8323 Vacek Crossing Way	0.03mi	4/2.5	2,121 (0%)	4mo	$320,800	$151	93
8819 Vacek Crossing Way	0.14mi	4/2.5	2,121 (0%)	2mo	$322,500	$152	89
8826 Vacek Crossing Way	0.14mi	4/2.5	2,121 (0%)	4mo	$320,500	$151	88
10714 Gossypium Ct	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,095 (-1%)	4mo	$299,900	$143	81
8346 Vacek Crossing Way	0.05mi	4/3.0	2,260 (+7%)	3mo	$337,300	$149	80
10707 Gossypium Ct	0.22mi	4/2.5	2,174 (+2%)	5mo	$280,000	$129	79
8319 Vacek Crossing Way	0.03mi	4/3.0	2,260 (+7%)	5mo	$332,600	$147	79
8303 Vacek Crossing Way	0.04mi	4/3.0	2,260 (+7%)	5mo	$336,300	$149	79
8830 Vacek Crossing Way	0.15mi	4/3.0	2,260 (+7%)	6mo	$335,000	$148	73
8543 Alma Lily Dr	0.25mi	4/3.0	2,260 (+7%)	2mo	$284,990	$126	72
8435 Vacek Crossing Way	0.12mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,826 (-14%)	2mo	$305,300	$167	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-83,331
• Equity at exit: $47,579

10-year hold

• IRR: -45.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.46×
• Total profit: $-130,525
• Equity at exit: $27,590

Cash invested: $89,348 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 21 active · 11 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.2 mo (19%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $284,990 ($146/sqft)
• Median days on market: 86 d
• This list price: 67% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +3.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77469

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 2204
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,296 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,673
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$399 /mo · $4,786/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $-391

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,791

Max offer price $262,463

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-171	-5% $-281	+0% $-391	+5% $-502	+10% $-612
Rent	-10% $-573	-5% $-482	+0% $-391	+5% $-301	+10% $-210
Rate	-1.0pp $-231	-0.5pp $-310	base $-391	+0.5pp $-474	+1.0pp $-558

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,775
• Closing costs: $9,573
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10714 Gossypium Ct Richmond, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1727	$2,300	$1.33	128d	1	0.16mi
7650 Tipton Meadow Way Richmond, TX	4.0	2.5	2339	$2,260	$0.97	48d	1	0.60mi
7646 Tipton Meadow Way Richmond, TX	4.0	2.5	2339	$2,330	$1.00	65d	1	0.60mi
7642 Tipton Meadow Way Richmond, TX	4.0	2.0	1778	$2,040	$1.15	128d	1	0.61mi
7638 Tipton Meadow Way Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,905	$1.34	130d	1	0.62mi
7630 Tipton Meadow Way Richmond, TX	4.0	2.0	1778	$2,040	$1.15	121d	1	0.64mi
7626 Tipton Meadow Way Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1620	$1,955	$1.21	121d	1	0.65mi
7622 Tipton Meadow Way Richmond, TX	4.0	2.5	2339	$2,215	$0.95	119d	1	0.66mi
7618 Tipton Meadow Way Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,815	$1.28	119d	1	0.67mi
7619 Tipton Meadow Way Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,905	$1.34	65d	1	0.67mi
7614 Tipton Meadow Way Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1620	$1,955	$1.21	119d	1	0.68mi
7615 Tipton Meadow Way Richmond, TX	4.0	2.5	2339	$2,330	$1.00	78d	1	0.68mi
7610 Tipton Meadow Way Richmond, TX	4.0	2.0	1778	$2,040	$1.15	93d	1	0.69mi
7606 Tipton Meadow Way Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,905	$1.34	94d	1	0.69mi
7622 Thrips Ln Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1620	$1,895	$1.17	21d	1	0.69mi
7602 Tipton Meadow Way Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1620	$1,955	$1.21	96d	1	0.71mi
7603 Tipton Meadow Way Richmond, TX	4.0	2.0	1778	$2,040	$1.15	140d	1	0.71mi
7539 Tipton Meadow Way Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,885	$1.33	25d	1	0.73mi
7523 Tipton Meadow Way Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,850	$1.30	184d	1	0.76mi
10718 Millet Ct Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1862	$1,900	$1.02	163d	1	0.80mi
8018 Vacek Meadows Loop Richmond, TX	5.0	2.5	2593	$2,985	$1.15	10d	1	0.82mi
10711 Anthonomus Way Richmond, TX	3.0	2.5	1957	$2,125	$1.09	0d	1	0.88mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $318,790 Active 806 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $318,790 Active 805 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $318,790 Active 804 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $318,790 Active 803 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   pricedays on market $318,790 Active 802 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $318,540 Active 800 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $318,540 Active 799 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $318,540 Active 798 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $318,540 Active 797 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $318,540 Active 796 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $318,540 Active 795 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $318,540 Active 794 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $318,540 Active 793 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $318,540 Active 792 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $318,540 Active 791 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    price $318,540 Active 790 DOM
17. 2026-10-23
    days on market $318,290 Active 790 DOM
18. 2026-10-22
    days on market $318,290 Active 789 DOM
19. 2026-10-21
    days on market $318,290 Active 788 DOM
20. 2026-10-20
    days on market $318,290 Active 787 DOM
21. 2026-10-19
    days on market $318,290 Active 786 DOM
22. 2026-10-18
    days on market $318,290 Active 785 DOM
23. 2026-10-17
    days on market $318,290 Active 784 DOM
24. 2026-10-16
    days on market $318,290 Active 783 DOM
25. 2026-10-15
    days on market $318,290 Active 782 DOM
26. 2026-10-14
    days on market $318,290 Active 781 DOM
27. 2026-10-13
    days on market $318,290 Active 780 DOM
28. 2026-10-12
    days on market $318,290 Active 779 DOM
29. 2026-10-11
    days on market $318,290 Active 778 DOM
30. 2026-10-10
    days on market $318,290 Active 777 DOM
31. 2026-10-09
    days on market $318,290 Active 776 DOM
32. 2026-10-08
    days on market $318,290 Active 775 DOM
33. 2026-10-07
    days on market $318,290 Active 774 DOM
34. 2026-10-06
    days on market $318,290 Active 773 DOM
35. 2026-10-05
    days on market $318,290 Active 772 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $318,290 Active 771 DOM
37. 2026-10-04
    days on market $318,290 Active 770 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $318,290 Active 769 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $318,290 Active 768 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $318,290 Active 767 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $318,290 Active 766 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $318,290 Active 765 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $318,290 Active 764 DOM
44. 2026-09-26
    days on market $318,290 Active 763 DOM
45. 2026-09-25
    days on market $318,290 Active 762 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $318,290 Active 761 DOM
47. 2026-09-23
    days on market $318,290 Active 760 DOM
48. 2026-09-22
    days on market $318,290 Active 759 DOM
49. 2026-09-21
    days on market $318,290 Active 758 DOM
50. 2026-09-20
    days on market $318,290 Active 757 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,552
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,875
• − Property taxes: −$4,786
• − Insurance: −$1,596
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,204
• − Management: −$2,204
• − Depreciation: −$9,283
• Taxable loss: −$10,396
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,495
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,202/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Fairchilds, TX, is in good condition with a modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and marketability.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A more efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more tenants or buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the property's appeal and marketability, especially for younger buyers or renters. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 55/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Needville El C TX #587/4,322 Nat'l #9,513/41,679 Middle Needville Middle B- TX #234/1,662 Nat'l #2,362/14,009 High Needville H S C- TX #437/1,632 Nat'l #4,893/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Needville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832310
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,900
• Composite: 48.17/100
• National rank: #2176
• State rank: #95 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Richmond

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #363
• US rank: #7780

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
• City population: 115,151
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,826
• Household income: $102,125
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.76)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 29% White 27% Black 25% Two or more races 15% Asian 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.66%
• Current HPI: 234.9892
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.81%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+7.2% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $317,290 Zillow
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $316,290 Zillow
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $316,040 Zillow
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $313,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $316,590 Zillow
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $315,040 Zillow
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $313,490 Zillow
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $313,240 Zillow
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $312,240 Zillow
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $313,240 Zillow
• 2025-11-01 Price Changed $312,240 Zillow
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $311,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $311,740 Zillow
• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $311,490 Zillow
• 2025-08-06 Price Changed $303,240 Zillow
• 2025-07-31 Price Changed $302,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-02 Price Changed $311,490 Zillow
• 2025-06-04 Price Changed $310,490 Zillow
• 2025-05-13 Price Changed $310,240 Zillow
• 2025-05-02 Price Changed $309,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-15 Price Changed $308,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-01 Price Changed $307,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-20 Price Changed $304,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-01 Price Changed $303,990 Zillow
• 2025-02-01 Price Changed $302,990 Zillow
• 2024-11-09 Price Changed $301,990 Zillow
• 2024-11-02 Price Changed $296,990 Zillow
• 2024-08-24 Listed $295,990 Zillow