6 Frontier Trl · Murphy, MO 63026

$239,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1973 8,515 sqft lot Est $225k · 7% over $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• ARV discount +4.4/15.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Don't miss this beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home in the sought-after Northwest School District! From the moment you walk in, you'll appreciate the fresh, move-in-ready feel with luxury vinyl flooring throughout, white 6-panel doors and trim, and a charming bay window that brings in abundant natural light. The stylish kitchen is sure to impress with white shaker cabinetry, quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a clean, modern look buyers love. The updated hall bath features a white vanity, updated fixtures, and a tub/shower surround, while the primary bedroom offers the convenience of its own private half bath with white vanity and laminate flooring. All bedrooms in

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Private half bath
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• FINISHED LOWER LEVEL
• COZY FIREPLACE
• PRIVATE HALF BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Frontier Estates HOA; Annual association fee of $200 (covers grounds maintenance); Association management

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage facing front (1-car)
• Utilities: Community water / shared well; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Multi/split levels; Private ownership
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Patio; Balcony; Chain link fencing; Shed(s); Corner lot; Concrete road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Stainless steel appliances; Dishwasher; Microwave; Electric oven; Electric range; Breakfast room
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on main level)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Bay windows; Storm windows; Finished basement; Fireplace in basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-98 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $223k (7.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (26.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (26.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.2% in Murphy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#461 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Northwest R-I (suburban): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #128 of 324 in MO (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Murphy Elem. (math 47% / reading 42%, grade F, #413 of 1,115 statewide, top 42%, 463 students, 48% FRL); Northwest High (math 26% / reading 56%, grade F, #236 of 521 statewide, top 45%, 1,841 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.7%/yr); 150 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 807 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,194 (26.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.74%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $224,640
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4 Dixie Dr	0.51mi	3/1.0	912 (-5%)	4mo	$199,000	$218	62
46 Frontier Trl	0.11mi	3/1.5	864 (-10%)	23mo	$205,000	$237	59
25 Rainbow Dr	0.34mi	2/1.0 (-1)	896 (-7%)	13mo	$189,900	$212	55
1019 Clark Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,026 (+7%)	21mo	$240,000	$234	50
65 Patricia Pl	0.75mi	3/1.5	1,026 (+7%)	19mo	$254,900	$248	38
26 W Lakewood Dr	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,104 (+15%)	3mo	$285,000	$258	34
27 Georgia Spur	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,092 (+14%)	15mo	$129,900	$119	32
6 Glen Oaks Dr	0.53mi	2/1.0 (-1)	816 (-15%)	18mo	$155,000	$190	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-36,405
• Equity at exit: $35,770

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-359
• Equity at exit: $20,742

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63026

• Rents YoY: 7.7%
• Active inventory: 150
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,762 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,375/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $-98

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,886

Max offer price $222,650

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $38	-5% $-30	+0% $-98	+5% $-166	+10% $-233
Rent	-10% $-237	-5% $-167	+0% $-98	+5% $-28	+10% $42
Rate	-1.0pp $23	-0.5pp $-37	base $-98	+0.5pp $-160	+1.0pp $-223

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
63 Patricia Pl Fenton, MO	3.0	1.0	1091	$1,995	$1.83	12d	1	0.79mi
1054 Green Mountain Ct Fenton, MO	2.0	1.0	793	$1,140	$1.44	0d	12	0.97mi
301 Clay Creek Trl Fenton, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1071	$2,081	$1.94	0d	17	1.11mi
832 Briny Ln Fenton, MO	2.0	2.0	924	$1,245	$1.35	0d	1	1.17mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $239,900 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,900 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,900 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,900 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,900 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,900 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $239,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,375 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,327 · $194/mo
• Expected delta: +$952/yr (+$79/mo · 69.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,143
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$1,375
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,691
• − Management: −$1,691
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable loss: −$5,435
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,304
• After-tax cash flow: $133/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northwest R-I
• NCES district ID: 2922890
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $55,998
• Composite: 35.05/100
• National rank: #5034
• State rank: #128 of 324 in MO

Livability — Murphy

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #461
• US rank: #18506

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Murphy, MO
• County: Jefferson County · 108,544 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 45,354
• Household income: $97,553
• Rent vs Own: 19.7% rent · 80.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 513.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 235,088 people
• By 2030: 238,365 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 240,156 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 234,651 · -0.2%
• By 2075: 214,569 · -8.7%
• By 2100: 179,697 · -23.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.7) · D 31.0% · R 67.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.3pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -36.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.7 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+35.3 2012: R+12.7 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -300.59%
• Current HPI: 211.8944
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.72%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $239,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-02-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,375 · +8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.