5126 Reeves Cir · Midland, TX 79703

$300,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,742 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 90 Days on market

Built 1985 6,360 sqft lot $172/sqft · 27% above area Est $290k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• ARV discount +5.9/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home equipped with solar panels and a Vivint Security system installed. Spacious Layout with open kitchen and dinning area. Located in Western Hills and ready for its next owner. Interior photos coming soon. Showings begin March 9th.

Key facts

• Dining area
• Solar panels
• Open kitchen

Tags

• SOLAR PANELS
• VIVINT SECURITY SYSTEM
• OPEN KITCHEN
• DINING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $130 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $268k (10.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $268k (10.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.7% in Midland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in TX, #2,192 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute D+, amenities D.
• Midland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Henderson El (math 42% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 491 students, 79% FRL); Goddard J H (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 1,024 students, 58% FRL, charter); Midland H S (math 37% / reading 7%, grade F, #1,366 of 1,632 statewide, top 84%, 2,492 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 65 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $267,819 (10.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.86%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $289,651
• List price: $300,000
• Delta: 3.57%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-48,199
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-61,701
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79703

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,678 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$288 /mo · $3,451/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$562
• Net cashflow: $130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,514

Max offer price $300,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $300	-5% $215	+0% $130	+5% $45	+10% $-40
Rent	-10% $-82	-5% $24	+0% $130	+5% $236	+10% $342
Rate	-1.0pp $281	-0.5pp $206	base $130	+0.5pp $52	+1.0pp $-27

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5205 Blue Haven Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1539	$6,000	$3.90	45d	1	0.17mi
4515 Monty Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1853	$2,400	$1.30	45d	1	0.87mi
4317 Tanner Dr Unit A Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	2220	$2,650	$1.19	23d	1	1.02mi
303 Koufax Ct Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	2096	$2,950	$1.41	23d	1	1.17mi
3811 Cedar Spring Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,600	$1.73	45d	1	1.35mi
509 Wagner Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$3,000	$1.44	45d	1	1.37mi
6020 Spahn St Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1849	$2,800	$1.51	45d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $300,000 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $300,000 Active 88 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $300,000 Active 87 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $300,000 Active 86 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $300,000 Active 85 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $300,000 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $300,000 Active 82 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $300,000 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $300,000 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $300,000 Active 78 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $300,000 Active 77 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $300,000 Active 76 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $300,000 Active 72 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $300,000 Active 71 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $300,000 Active 70 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $300,000 Active 69 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $300,000 Active 68 DOM
18. 2026-02-25
    listed $300,000 Active 233-char remark

    Show marketing remark (233 chars)

    Home equipped with solar panels and a Vivint Security system installed. Spacious Layout with open kitchen and dinning area. Located in Western Hills and ready for its next owner. Interior photos coming soon. Showings begin March 9th.

19. 2019-03-19
    soldstatus
20. 2019-03-18
    soldstatus 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    Big Family? Need Space? THIS IS IT!!!This expansive home has much to offer starting with a formal dining and living room featuring a wood burning fireplace, 5 bedrooms and 3 full baths. Sits in a quiet cul-de-sac. Home has been fully renovated. Granite countertops throughout. Immaculate home like new. AC and roof are less than 2 years old. Too many upgrades to list. Schedule a showing today!

21. 2019-01-30
    listed $275,000 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    Big Family? Need Space? THIS IS IT!!!This expansive home has much to offer starting with a formal dining and living room featuring a wood burning fireplace, 5 bedrooms and 3 full baths. Sits in a quiet cul-de-sac. Home has been fully renovated. Granite countertops throughout. Immaculate home like new. AC and roof are less than 2 years old. Too many upgrades to list. Schedule a showing today!

22. 2002-04-02
    soldstatus
23. 2002-03-28
    soldstatus
24. 2001-07-11
    listed $75,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,451 · $288/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,490 · $458/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,039/yr (+$170/mo · 59.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,138
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$3,451
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,571
• − Management: −$2,571
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$3,487
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$837
• After-tax cash flow: $2,396/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830570
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,457
• Composite: 31.63/100
• National rank: #5938
• State rank: #477 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midland

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #2192

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midland, TX
• County: Midland County · 168,494 people
• City population: 168,494
• Metro: Midland, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,419
• Household income: $77,285
• Rent vs Own: 37.9% rent · 62.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 417.0

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,895 people
• By 2030: 253,667 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 325,498 · +47.4%
• By 2050: 404,168 · +83.0%
• By 2075: 609,802 · +176.1%
• By 2100: 760,172 · +244.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 34% Two or more races 16% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 38% Arabic 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.3% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -57.3pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+57.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -250.72%
• Current HPI: 224.6222
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.33%
• Metro: Midland, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+295.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-25 Listed $300,000 PBBOR
• 2019-03-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-03-18 Sold (MLS) — ODMLS
• 2019-01-30 Listed $275,000 ODMLS
• 2002-04-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-03-28 Sold (MLS) — ODMLS
• 2001-07-11 Listed $75,900 ODMLS

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,451 · -6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.