295 Black River Rd · East Nassau, NY 12169

$69,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,728 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 2003 6.83 ac lot $40/sqft · 79% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Minutes to NY/MA Border! Opportunity knocks! This 4BR, 1BA shell is a full renovation and ready for your vision. Nestled on 6.83 peaceful, wooded acres with a setting worth the look. Total privacy, room to roam, and endless possibilities, create a country retreat, weekend getaway, or year round residence. Located in the Berlin School District and just minutes to the Massachusetts border for easy commuting and access to nearby amenities. Serious upside potential here. Cash Only.

Key facts

• Total privacy
• Country retreat
• Full renovation

Tags

• FULL RENOVATION
• PEACEFUL WOODED ACRES
• TOTAL PRIVACY
• COUNTRY RETREAT
• BERLIN SCHOOL DISTRICT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $798 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.0% vs local median 2.1% in East Nassau — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,099 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-, cost of living B; Watch: schools D+, crime D-, amenities F.
• Berlin Central School District (rural): math 45% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #412 of 590 in NY (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 405 units permitted in Rensselaer County in 2024 (224 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($483 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (8.9% local appreciation)).
• Rensselaer County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (8.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $70k implies a 218% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $65,706 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 48.92%
• DSCR: 3.18
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $338,876
• List price: $69,900
• Delta: -79.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

8.93% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 61.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.29×
• Total profit: $83,871
• Equity at exit: $57,609

10-year hold

• IRR: 55.8%
• Equity multiple: 11.53×
• Total profit: $206,066
• Equity at exit: $118,939

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12169

• Home prices YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 7
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,621 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$87 /mo · $1,048/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $798

Break-even live

Break-even rent $611

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $846	-5% $822	+0% $798	+5% $774	+10% $750
Rent	-10% $670	-5% $734	+0% $798	+5% $862	+10% $926
Rate	-1.0pp $833	-0.5pp $816	base $798	+0.5pp $780	+1.0pp $761

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 482-char remark

   Show marketing remark (482 chars)

   Minutes to NY/MA Border! Opportunity knocks! This 4BR, 1BA shell is a full renovation and ready for your vision. Nestled on 6.83 peaceful, wooded acres with a setting worth the look. Total privacy, room to roam, and endless possibilities, create a country retreat, weekend getaway, or year round residence. Located in the Berlin School District and just minutes to the Massachusetts border for easy commuting and access to nearby amenities. Serious upside potential here. Cash Only.

2. 2026-04-20
   price $69,900 482-char remark

   Show marketing remark (482 chars)

   Minutes to NY/MA Border! Opportunity knocks! This 4BR, 1BA shell is a full renovation and ready for your vision. Nestled on 6.83 peaceful, wooded acres with a setting worth the look. Total privacy, room to roam, and endless possibilities, create a country retreat, weekend getaway, or year round residence. Located in the Berlin School District and just minutes to the Massachusetts border for easy commuting and access to nearby amenities. Serious upside potential here. Cash Only.

3. 2026-02-27
   listed $89,900 Active 482-char remark

   Show marketing remark (482 chars)

   Minutes to NY/MA Border! Opportunity knocks! This 4BR, 1BA shell is a full renovation and ready for your vision. Nestled on 6.83 peaceful, wooded acres with a setting worth the look. Total privacy, room to roam, and endless possibilities, create a country retreat, weekend getaway, or year round residence. Located in the Berlin School District and just minutes to the Massachusetts border for easy commuting and access to nearby amenities. Serious upside potential here. Cash Only.

4. 2025-08-08
   historical
5. 2025-07-18
   listed $80,000 Active
6. 1996-04-08
   soldstatus $22,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥91°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,457
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$1,048
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,557
• − Management: −$1,557
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $8,997
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,159
• After-tax cash flow: $7,415/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Berlin Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3604620
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,335
• Composite: 41.5/100
• National rank: #3455
• State rank: #412 of 590 in NY

Livability — East Nassau

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1099
• US rank: #22410

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime D- Employment C+ Housing A- Health & safety D- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,723
• Population (ZIP): 407

Population outlook (Rensselaer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 162,400 people
• By 2030: 161,746 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 158,095 · -2.7%
• By 2050: 152,966 · -5.8%
• By 2075: 140,767 · -13.3%
• By 2100: 124,727 · -23.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 17%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 38% Lithuanian 14% Danish 8%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rensselaer

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.7% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.0pp toward R · 2008: 9.3pp · 2024: 1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.4 2020: D+5.6 2016: R+2.9 2012: D+11.8 2008: D+9.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.93%
• Current HPI: 290.2192
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+217.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $69,900 Global MLS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $89,900 Global MLS
• 2025-08-08 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2025-07-18 Listed $80,000 Global MLS
• 1996-04-08 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,014 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.