2908 Hilldale Ave · Baltimore, MD 21215

$149,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · Townhouse · 119 Days on market

Built 1920 2,004 sqft lot $135/sqft · 26% below area Est $202k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Completely rehabbed 4-bedroom, 1-bath home — perfect for a first-time homebuyer or an investor looking to expand their portfolio. This move-in-ready property offers updated finishes, spacious bedrooms, and strong rental potential in a growing area.

Key facts

• Built 1920
• Listed 118 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $533 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 351 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.4% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 18 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $120k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,590 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.34%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $202,453
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -26.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3912 Reisterstown Rd	0.42mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,100 (0%)	1mo	$55,000	$50	72
3823 Cottage Ave	0.43mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,140 (+4%)	3mo	$118,000	$104	66
2546 Druid Park Dr	0.24mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,002 (-9%)	4mo	$190,000	$190	65
2542 Druid Park Dr	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,200 (+9%)	20mo	$204,000	$170	53
3109 Sequoia Ave	0.26mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,190 (+8%)	23mo	$130,000	$109	48
3906 Grantley Rd	0.72mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,178 (+7%)	1mo	$127,000	$108	47
3118 Sequoia Ave	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,190 (+8%)	21mo	$215,000	$181	47
2126 Druid Park Dr	0.68mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,144 (+4%)	15mo	$199,000	$174	42
3621 Malden Ave	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,157 (+5%)	14mo	$308,000	$266	40
3926 Cedardale Rd	0.65mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,178 (+7%)	17mo	$195,000	$166	36
3606 Malden Ave	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,183 (+8%)	16mo	$225,000	$190	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $8,698
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $46,752
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21215

• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 351
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,827 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $799/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $533

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,152

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $618	-5% $575	+0% $533	+5% $491	+10% $449
Rent	-10% $389	-5% $461	+0% $533	+5% $605	+10% $678
Rate	-1.0pp $608	-0.5pp $571	base $533	+0.5pp $495	+1.0pp $455

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3822 Pall Mall Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1320	$1,875	$1.42	44d	1	0.46mi
2910 Reisterstown Rd Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0	950	$1,414	$1.49	15d	4	0.49mi
4037 Cedardale Rd Baltimore, MD	5.0	3.0	1500	$2,800	$1.87	15d	1	0.63mi
4230 Towanda Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	18d	1	0.75mi
3001 Carlisle Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,300	$1.27	44d	1	0.75mi
2415 Loyola Southway Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1200	$2,033	$1.69	44d	1	0.75mi
2738 N Longwood St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,399	$1.37	44d	1	0.75mi
3632 Parkdale Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1400	$3,000	$2.14	44d	1	0.76mi
2742 N Rosedale St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,350	$1.32	44d	2	0.80mi
2619 Loyola Northway Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,995	$1.43	24d	1	0.83mi
3401 Woodbrook Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	900	$1,199	$1.33	24d	1	0.86mi
3028 Hanlon Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,711	$1.43	24d	1	0.88mi
2454 W Cold Spring Ln Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,650	$1.38	24d	1	0.96mi
2915 Oakford Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1102	$1,600	$1.45	18d	1	0.99mi
2216 Whittier Ave Baltimore, MD	5.0	1.5	1392	$1,975	$1.42	24d	1	1.00mi
2231 Orem Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1140	$1,750	$1.54	18d	1	1.05mi
2530 Edgecombe Cir N Baltimore, MD	2.0–3.0	1.0	920	$1,325	$1.44	3d	4	1.10mi
2204 Clifton Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,450	$1.04	5d	1	1.11mi
2636 W North Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,475	$1.51	5d	1	1.19mi
3784 Columbus Dr Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1250	$2,200	$1.76	24d	1	1.25mi
3534 Poole St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,600	$1.79	24d	1	1.28mi
1816 N Bentalou St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,700	$1.26	24d	1	1.29mi
1816 N Bentalou St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,700	$1.26	11d	1	1.29mi
2001 W Cold Spring Ln Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1154	$3,505	$3.04	2d	31	1.32mi
2505 Woodbrook Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1256	$1,745	$1.39	2d	1	1.38mi
2614 Pennsylvania Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	982	$1,141	$1.16	5d	4	1.39mi
1201 Union Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1410	$2,575	$1.83	44d	1	1.41mi
1515 Retreat St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1098	$1,800	$1.64	24d	1	1.42mi
1507 Retreat St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.0	1098	$2,500	$2.28	44d	1	1.43mi
1722 N Monroe St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,350	$1.35	24d	1	1.45mi
3016 Thorndale Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0	700	$1,200	$1.71	5d	14	1.46mi
4119 Falls Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1316	$2,500	$1.90	44d	1	1.48mi
2511 Madison Ave #2 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,650	$1.50	44d	1	1.49mi
1806 N Mount St Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.0	1200	$1,700	$1.42	20d	1	1.50mi
1729 N Fulton Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1081	$1,795	$1.66	44d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 119 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 117 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 116 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 114 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,000 Active 110 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,000 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,000 Active 108 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $149,000 Active 105 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,000 Active 104 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 103 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 102 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 101 DOM
14. 2026-02-20
    listed $149,000 Active 254-char remark

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    Completely rehabbed 4-bedroom, 1-bath home — perfect for a first-time homebuyer or an investor looking to expand their portfolio. This move-in-ready property offers updated finishes, spacious bedrooms, and strong rental potential in a growing area.

15. 2026-02-16
    historical $149,000 254-char remark

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    Completely rehabbed 4-bedroom, 1-bath home — perfect for a first-time homebuyer or an investor looking to expand their portfolio. This move-in-ready property offers updated finishes, spacious bedrooms, and strong rental potential in a growing area.

16. 2025-07-10
    historical
17. 2025-07-01
    historical $2,000
18. 2025-05-31
    listed $2,000
19. 2025-04-04
    price $165,000
20. 2025-02-07
    price $169,000
21. 2025-01-17
    listed $175,000 Active
22. 2024-12-06
    historical
23. 2024-11-02
    listed $175,000 Active
24. 2024-10-31
    historical
25. 2024-10-19
    historical $2,000
26. 2024-09-21
    listed $2,000
27. 2023-07-18
    soldstatus $120,000
28. 2023-06-03
    soldstatus $120,000 Closed
29. 2023-05-19
    historical Active Under Contract
30. 2023-04-24
    price $125,000
31. 2023-03-15
    status Active
32. 2023-03-06
    historical
33. 2023-03-06
    listed $145,000 Active
34. 2023-02-14
    historical $145,000
35. 2019-12-16
    soldstatus $45,500
36. 2009-07-29
    soldstatus $22,000 Sold
37. 2009-07-29
    soldstatus $22,000
38. 2009-06-10
    historical
39. 2009-06-10
    historical
40. 2009-06-05
    listed $25,900
41. 2009-06-05
    listed $25,900
42. 2008-08-16
    historical
43. 2008-07-28
    status
44. 2008-07-16
    historical
45. 2008-05-23
    price
46. 2008-05-06
    listed
47. 2008-03-01
    historical
48. 2008-01-18
    historical
49. 2008-01-18
    historical
50. 2008-01-17
    listed

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $799 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,211 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: +$413/yr (+$34/mo · 51.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,924
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$799
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,754
• − Management: −$1,754
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $4,191
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,006
• After-tax cash flow: $5,394/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 52,229
• Household income: $51,587
• Rent vs Own: 45.2% rent · 54.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 3644.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 73% White 17% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 2% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -318.58%
• Current HPI: 291.4926
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+325.7% since first listed

51 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-20 Listed $149,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-16 Coming Soon $149,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-10 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-01 Rental Removed $2,000 TURBOTENANT
• 2025-05-31 Listed for Rent $2,000 TURBOTENANT
• 2025-04-04 Price Changed $165,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-02-07 Price Changed $169,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-01-17 Listed $175,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-12-06 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-11-02 Listed $175,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-10-31 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-10-19 Rental Removed $2,000 RENTALBEAST
• 2024-09-21 Listed for Rent $2,000 RENTALBEAST
• 2023-07-18 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2023-06-03 Sold (MLS) $120,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-05-19 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-04-24 Price Changed $125,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-03-15 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-03-06 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-03-06 Listed $145,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-02-14 Coming Soon $145,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $45,500 Public Records
• 2009-07-29 Sold (MLS) $22,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-07-29 Sold (MLS) $22,000 MRIS
• 2009-06-10 Delisted — MRIS
• 2009-06-10 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-06-05 Listed $25,900 MRIS
• 2009-06-05 Listed $25,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2008-08-16 Delisted — MRIS
• 2008-07-28 Relisted — MRIS
• 2008-07-16 Delisted — MRIS
• 2008-05-23 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2008-05-06 Listed — MRIS
• 2008-03-01 Delisted — MRIS
• 2008-01-18 Delisted — MRIS
• 2008-01-18 Delisted — MRIS
• 2008-01-17 Listed — MRIS
• 2008-01-17 Listed — MRIS
• 2008-01-17 Listed — MRIS
• 2007-12-07 Delisted — MRIS
• 2007-06-08 Listed — MRIS
• 2005-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2005-10-27 Sold (MLS) $90,000 MRIS
• 2005-09-27 Listed $90,000 MRIS
• 2005-09-27 Delisted — MRIS
• 2005-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $34,000 Public Records
• 2000-05-11 Delisted — MRIS
• 2000-01-11 Listed — MRIS
• 1999-09-29 Delisted — MRIS
• 1999-04-01 Listed — MRIS
• 1994-02-25 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $799 · +17.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.