Dover Plan · Balm, FL 33598

$308,400

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,555 sqft · SingleFamily · 59 Days on market

Good condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Appreciation +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0

Listing remarks

This single-story home optimizes space and prioritizes ease of living. An open concept design includes the family room and dining room as well as the kitchen with a center island to promote seamless transitions between activities. An attached patio provides outdoor space. Nearby is the cozy owner's suite with a private bathroom and spacious walk-in closet, while two bedrooms are located down the hall.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open concept design
• Private bathroom

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT DESIGN
• ATTACHED PATIO
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 13606 Fenwick Stream Dr, Wimauma, FL 33598; Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $306,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: New construction plan named Dover; Single-family home (plan inventory)
• Construction: Built as part of 2026 inventory (modification timestamp May 24, 2026)
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,555 (interior size provided)

Interior

• Kitchen: Standard kitchen (appliances not specified)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area
• Laundry & utility: Laundry/utility room (details not specified)

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $308k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-58 ($-696/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $300k (2.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $262k (14.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $262k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#742 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wimauma Elementary School (math 31% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,882 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 543 students, 81% FRL); Shields Middle School (math 29% / reading 27%, grade F, #486 of 571 statewide, top 86%, 1,867 students, 68% FRL); Lennard High School (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #328 of 667 statewide, top 50%, 2,404 students, 47% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 689 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.4%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($299k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $262,441 (14.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.81%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.35% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-52,806
• Equity at exit: $55,041

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-72,842
• Equity at exit: $42,487

Cash invested: $86,352 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33598

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 689
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,624 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,617
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$386 /mo · $4,626/yr
• Insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$551
• Net cashflow: $-58

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,698

Max offer price $300,007

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $155	-5% $49	+0% $-58	+5% $-165	+10% $-271
Rent	-10% $-265	-5% $-162	+0% $-58	+5% $46	+10% $149
Rate	-1.0pp $97	-0.5pp $20	base $-58	+0.5pp $-138	+1.0pp $-219

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,100
• Closing costs: $9,252
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15007 Coltman Hill Pl Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.5	1924	$2,550	$1.33	26d	1	0.33mi
13181 Garnet Raspberry Ave Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,500	$1.29	26d	1	0.90mi
13095 Calcite Blue Ave Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.0	1936	$2,300	$1.19	20d	1	1.03mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $308,400 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $308,400 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $308,400 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $308,400 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   price $308,400 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $308,300 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $308,300 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $308,100 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $308,100 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    pricedays on market $308,100 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $307,900 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $307,800 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $307,800 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $307,800 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    price $307,800 Active 39 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    pricedays on market $307,600 Active 39 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $307,400 Active 38 DOM
18. 2026-05-17
    price $306,700 404-char remark
19. 2026-05-16
    price $306,400 404-char remark
20. 2026-05-10
    price $306,200 404-char remark
21. 2026-05-09
    price $305,700 404-char remark
22. 2026-05-08
    price $305,450 404-char remark
23. 2026-05-01
    price $328,735 404-char remark
24. 2026-04-25
    price $328,485 404-char remark
25. 2026-04-23
    listed $327,985 Active 404-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,493
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,275
• − Property taxes: −$4,626
• − Insurance: −$1,542
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,519
• − Management: −$2,519
• − Depreciation: −$8,972
• Taxable loss: −$5,961
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,431
• After-tax cash flow: $735/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story home is in good condition with a modern design and well-maintained interior and exterior. It is ready for a fresh coat of paint and carpet replacement to further enhance its curb appeal and interior comfort.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace carpet in living room — Freshens the interior and improves comfort
• Both Clean and maintain HVAC system — Ensures efficient heating and cooling, improving comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet in living room — Freshens the interior and improves comfort ↑
• Both Clean and maintain HVAC system — Ensures efficient heating and cooling, improving comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Balm

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #742
• US rank: #16016

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Balm, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 196
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,820
• Household income: $97,520
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 149.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 39% Black 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.35%
• Current HPI: 271.8552
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.50%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B