45 Gardenia · Casper, WY 82604

$239,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,035 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1959 5,820 sqft lot Est $249k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 5,820 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1959

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Oven; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Vinyl
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Dryer; Refrigerator; Range; Oven; Washer
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-135 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $215k (10.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (32.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $161k (32.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.0% in Casper — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#8 in WY, #2,629 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, health & safety F.
• Natrona County School District #1 (urban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 41 in WY (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 203 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 310 units permitted in Natrona County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Natrona County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,428 (32.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.42%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $249,435
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
42 Honeysuckle St	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-3%)	1mo	$245,000	$243	81
13 Gardenia St	0.10mi	3/1.0	1,056 (+2%)	19mo	$195,000	$185	76
11 Jonquil	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-3%)	1mo	$240,000	$240	74
25 Marigold St	0.20mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,040 (+0%)	15mo	$230,000	$221	72
50 Honeysuckle	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-3%)	13mo	$245,000	$243	72
16 Honeysuckle St	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-3%)	14mo	$265,000	$263	71
93 Honeysuckle St	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-3%)	9mo	$245,000	$245	69
38 Riverbend Rd	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-3%)	12mo	$243,000	$241	65
102 Honeysuckle St	0.42mi	3/1.0	980 (-5%)	15mo	$220,000	$224	59
78 Jasmine St	0.47mi	3/1.2	1,142 (+10%)	12mo	$279,900	$245	50
2202 Jonquil St	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,104 (+7%)	16mo	$259,900	$235	48
126 Honeysuckle	0.49mi	3/1.0	960 (-7%)	21mo	$209,900	$219	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-47,460
• Equity at exit: $35,636

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-52,914
• Equity at exit: $20,664

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Wyoming: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+25
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable; small market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 82604

• Active inventory: 203
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,614 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $690/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $-135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,785

Max offer price $215,125

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,750
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $239,000 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $239,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $239,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $239,000 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $239,000 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $239,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,000 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,000 Active 3 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,000 Active 2 DOM
17. 2026-05-17
    price $245,000 347-char remark
18. 2026-05-10
    price $249,000 347-char remark
19. 2026-05-01
    listed $255,000 Active 347-char remark
20. 2021-07-16
    soldstatus
21. 2021-07-16
    soldstatus
22. 2021-05-10
    listed $176,000
23. 2014-12-11
    soldstatus
24. 2013-06-22
    listed $139,500
25. 2006-06-02
    soldstatus
26. 2005-01-19
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $690 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,458 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: +$768/yr (+$64/mo · 111.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,371
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,388
• − Property taxes: −$690
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,550
• − Management: −$1,550
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable loss: −$5,954
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,429
• After-tax cash flow: $-193/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Natrona County School District #1
• NCES district ID: 5604510
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $55,217
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3437
• State rank: #32 of 41 in WY

Livability — Casper

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #2629

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Casper, WY
• County: Natrona County · 72,922 people
• City population: 72,922
• Metro: Casper, WY
• Population (ZIP): 27,487
• Household income: $79,118
• Rent vs Own: 16.7% rent · 83.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 396.0

Population outlook (Natrona County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,530 people
• By 2030: 107,084 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 124,838 · +26.7%
• By 2050: 143,617 · +45.8%
• By 2075: 192,378 · +95.2%
• By 2100: 228,435 · +131.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Natrona

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.6) · D 24.8% · R 73.5% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.3pp toward R · 2008: -34.4pp · 2024: -48.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.6 2020: R+47.6 2016: R+52.2 2012: R+41.1 2008: R+34.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -238.49%
• Current HPI: 180.7072
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Casper, WY
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+71.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $239,000 WMLS
• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $240,000 WMLS
• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $245,000 WMLS
• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $249,000 WMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $255,000 WMLS
• 2021-07-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-07-16 Sold (MLS) — WMLS
• 2021-05-10 Listed $176,000 WMLS
• 2014-12-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-06-22 Listed $139,500 WMLS
• 2006-06-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-01-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $690 · -20.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.