1622 Grand Park Dr · Missouri City, TX 77489

$160,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,159 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1981 6,599 sqft lot Est $223k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Centrally located to major highways. Ready to move in. New gas range. Room sizes are approximate.

Key facts

• 6,599 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1981

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (living areas on first floor); Built in 1981
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Cleared lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms total; Primary bedroom on the first floor; Two additional first-floor bedrooms
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (gas)
• Interior features: One fireplace; Seller disclosure available

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $128 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.5% in Missouri City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#526 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Missouri City Middle (math 19% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,177 of 1,662 statewide, top 72%, 963 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 35% district-wide (53 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-22 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fort Bend ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 186 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $224 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-882 appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.44%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $222,528
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1739 Grand Park Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,244 (+7%)	5mo	$244,500	$197	75
1115 Blocker Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,214 (+5%)	3mo	$180,000	$148	70
1926 Retriever Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,244 (+7%)	11mo	$255,000	$205	69
2047 Greencrest Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,150 (-1%)	20mo	$250,000	$217	56
1219 Pecan Glen Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,323 (+14%)	0mo	$244,900	$185	53
1907 Eastmont Ln	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,214 (+5%)	14mo	$224,900	$185	53
1814 Pine Hollow Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,301 (+12%)	14mo	$250,000	$192	51
2026 Hickory Glen Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+15%)	8mo	$249,000	$187	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.55% appreciation · 0.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-5,233
• Equity at exit: $42,099

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $4,470
• Equity at exit: $47,244

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77489

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,836 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$416 /mo · $4,996/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $128

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,673

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1215 New Tree Ln Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1323	$1,725	$1.30	12d	1	0.52mi
3102 Texas Pkwy Missouri City, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,301	$1.45	1d	3	1.40mi
3302 Texas Pkwy Missouri City, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$1,302	$1.63	1d	7	1.49mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-06-18
   listed $160,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,996 · $416/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,996 · $416/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,031
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$4,996
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,762
• − Management: −$1,762
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$907
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$218
• After-tax cash flow: $1,757/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Missouri City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #526
• US rank: #10308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Missouri City, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 123,513
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,292
• Household income: $74,689
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1121.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 13% White 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.55%
• Current HPI: 288.1306
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.34%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+128.6% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $160,000 HARMLS
• 2015-03-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-03-27 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2015-03-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-03-05 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2015-02-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-01-29 Listed $98,500 HARMLS
• 2013-08-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2013-08-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-07-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-07-21 Listed $69,990 HARMLS
• 2005-05-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-02-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,996 · -1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.