321 Sperry St · Rexland Acres, CA 93307

$199,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 821 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1947 8,276 sqft lot $243/sqft · 23% below area Est $259k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great opportunity at 321 Sperry St, Bakersfield, CA 93307. This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home features newer windows, a 2-car garage with alley access, and a convenient location near local parks and schools. The kitchen has been updated with granite countertops, giving the home a nice head start for the next owner. Property could use some TLC, but offers plenty of potential for a buyer looking to add their own personal touch.

Key facts

• Alley access
• Near schools
• Near local parks

Tags

• NEWER WINDOWS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• ALLEY ACCESS
• CONVENIENT LOCATION
• NEAR LOCAL PARKS
• NEAR SCHOOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Occupied by tenant

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Carport
• Utilities: Septic tank; Public water
• Home design: Zoned R1
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Neighborhood: Rexland Acres; Cross street at Garber Way

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Formal living room; Evaporative cooling

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-118 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (10.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (17.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kern High (urban): math 21% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #860 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Golden Valley High (reading 77%, 2,533 students, 91% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 314 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,078 (17.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.53%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $259,140
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -22.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
412 E Fairview Rd	0.11mi	2/1.0	891 (+8%)	3mo	$275,000	$309	78
333 Price St	0.07mi	2/1.0	884 (+8%)	14mo	$225,225	$255	72
521 Burchfield	0.28mi	3/1.0 (+1)	900 (+10%)	4mo	$180,000	$200	62
436 E Fairview Rd	0.17mi	2/1.0	936 (+14%)	11mo	$240,000	$256	59
342 Rexland Dr	0.42mi	1/1.0 (-1)	869 (+6%)	13mo	$228,000	$262	55
2732 Karen Pl	0.24mi	3/1.0 (+1)	728 (-11%)	13mo	$264,000	$363	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-35,237
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-20,106
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93307

• Rents YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 314
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,651 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$291 /mo · $3,487/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $-118

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,800

Max offer price $179,049

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-5	-5% $-61	+0% $-118	+5% $-175	+10% $-231
Rent	-10% $-248	-5% $-183	+0% $-118	+5% $-53	+10% $12
Rate	-1.0pp $-17	-0.5pp $-67	base $-118	+0.5pp $-170	+1.0pp $-223

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1050 E Panama Ln Bakersfield, CA	2.0	2.0	1015	$1,895	$1.87	45d	1	0.55mi
331 Pacheco Rd Bakersfield, CA	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	1147	$1,575	$1.37	4d	3	0.67mi
4519 Gordon St Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1051	$1,695	$1.61	4d	1	0.82mi
4412 Gordon St Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1039	$1,795	$1.73	4d	1	0.85mi
813 Karma Ct Apt D Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	862	$1,150	$1.33	16d	1	0.91mi
1000 Pacheco Rd Unit 131 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1095	$1,650	$1.51	4d	1	1.05mi
400 White Ln Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,399	$1.55	4d	1	1.13mi
5213 S H St Unit A Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,495	$1.76	5d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $199,900 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,900 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-05-12
   listed $209,900 Active 422-char remark
4. 2021-05-27
   soldstatus $175,000
5. 2020-10-22
   soldstatus $98,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,487 · $291/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,487 · $291/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,809
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$3,487
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,585
• − Management: −$1,585
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$4,859
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,166
• After-tax cash flow: $-250/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kern High
• NCES district ID: 0619540
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,686
• Composite: 33.68/100
• National rank: #10443
• State rank: #860 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Rexland Acres

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rexland Acres, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 85,945
• Household income: $56,446
• Rent vs Own: 53.0% rent · 47.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 3246.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 80% Two or more races 12% White 10% Black 6% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 73%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 0%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada
• Languages at home: 28% English-only · Spanish 69% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -263.59%
• Current HPI: 447.1746
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.71%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+102.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $199,900 GEMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $209,900 GEMLS
• 2021-05-27 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2020-10-22 Sold (Public Records) $98,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,487 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.