3079 Nutwood Ave · The Villages, FL 32163

$295,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,156 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 164 Days on market

Built 2013 3,848 sqft lot Est $286k · at est. $199/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.0/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Better Than New Patio Villa. This home comes with the much sought after laminate floors in the living room and dining room. Designer Colors brighten up the interior of this home. Beautiful Cherry Wood cabinets give this home the class and luxury of a much more expensive home. The location is great. .. just inside of the west Villages of Pinellas gate. Walking distance to Pinellas Plaza with all of its specialty restaurants, banks and shops. This is a must see home.

Key facts

• Access to pools
• No carpet
• Enclosed patio

Tags

• NO CARPET
• BACKYARD PRIVACY WALL
• ENCLOSED PATIO
• ACCESS TO GOLF COURSES
• ACCESS TO RECREATION CENTERS
• ACCESS TO POOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished; No lease restrictions; Public maintained road access
• Financial info: CDD present; Total monthly association fees listed as $199; Total annual association fees listed as $2,388
• HOA & community: HOA covers pool and recreational facilities; Community clubhouse; Community mailbox; Deed restrictions; Dog park; Fitness center; Golf; Park; Pool; Racquetball; Tennis courts; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Golf cart parking; Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Irrigation equipment
• Home design: Residential villa; One story; Faces west; Entry on main level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as 'Colony' model
• Exterior features: Covered, enclosed and screened front porch/patio; Patio; Sliding doors; Rain gutters; Stone fencing; Landscaped lot; Near golf course; Paved lot/driveway

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floorplan; Living room and dining room combo; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in kitchen; Indoor laundry; Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-135 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (8.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (12.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $258k (12.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 265 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $186k; list at $295k implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $258,313 (12.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.97%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $285,532
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3090 Loyola Ct	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,156 (0%)	6mo	$265,000	$229	88
3050 Gulfport Ct	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,161 (+0%)	11mo	$369,000	$318	88
3457 Carrabelle Ct	0.71mi	2/2.0	1,156 (0%)	5mo	$285,000	$247	62
3382 Carrabelle Ct	0.61mi	2/2.0	1,156 (0%)	12mo	$285,000	$247	62
2621 Margaret Pl	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,156 (0%)	20mo	$300,000	$260	55
3442 Carrabelle Ct	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,156 (0%)	22mo	$292,000	$253	50
3438 Alwyne Ave	0.72mi	2/2.0	1,188 (+3%)	19mo	$277,000	$233	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.84×
• Total profit: $152,171
• Equity at exit: $265,759

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.51×
• Total profit: $455,140
• Equity at exit: $573,120

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32163

• Home prices YoY: 9.8%
• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,583 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$307 /mo · $3,685/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$199
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$542
• Net cashflow: $-135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,754

Max offer price $271,099

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $32	-5% $-52	+0% $-135	+5% $-219	+10% $-302
Rent	-10% $-339	-5% $-237	+0% $-135	+5% $-33	+10% $69
Rate	-1.0pp $13	-0.5pp $-60	base $-135	+0.5pp $-212	+1.0pp $-290

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3025 Bartow Ln The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1415	$3,500	$2.47	22d	1	0.08mi
7011 Homestead Lp Wildwood, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	998	$1,469	$1.47	22d	22	0.38mi
5115 Spanish Harbor Dr Wildwood, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	990	$1,494	$1.51	22d	29	0.68mi
2577 Lindewood St The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1206	$2,495	$2.07	22d	1	0.81mi
7730 Wilds Loop Wildwood, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1084	$2,054	$1.89	22d	28	0.88mi
4980 Red Maple Ln Unit B1 Wildwood, FL	2.0	2.0	1095	$1,884	$1.72	22d	1	0.93mi
4980 Red Maple Ln Unit C1 Wildwood, FL	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,801	$1.25	22d	1	0.93mi
6629 Dan DiCiolla Dr Wildwood, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1075	$1,874	$1.74	22d	44	0.93mi
2290 Nackman Pl The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1427	$3,800	$2.66	22d	1	1.03mi
8118 Arrow Wood Loop Wildwood, FL	2.0	2.5	1317	$1,704	$1.29	22d	1	1.27mi
8168 Arrow Wood Loop Wildwood, FL	2.0	2.5	1317	$1,754	$1.33	22d	1	1.27mi
8128 Arrow Wood Loop Wildwood, FL	2.0	2.5	1317	$1,699	$1.29	22d	1	1.28mi
2280 Biscayne Ave The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$4,000	$2.86	22d	1	1.33mi
2272 Vassar Ln The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1416	$2,500	$1.77	22d	1	1.34mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $199 · $2,388/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $295,000 Active 164 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $295,000 Active 163 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $295,000 Active 162 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $295,000 Active 161 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $295,000 Active 160 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $295,000 Active 158 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $295,000 Active 157 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $295,000 Active 155 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $295,000 Active 154 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $295,000 Active 153 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $295,000 Active 152 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $295,000 Active 147 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $295,000 Active 146 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $295,000 Active 145 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $295,000 Active 144 DOM
16. 2026-01-06
    listed $295,000 Active
17. 2018-08-09
    soldstatus $186,000
18. 2017-08-03
    soldstatus $184,000
19. 2017-07-27
    soldstatus $184,000 Sold 469-char remark

    Show marketing remark (469 chars)

    Better Than New Patio Villa. This home comes with the much sought after laminate floors in the living room and dining room. Designer Colors brighten up the interior of this home. Beautiful Cherry Wood cabinets give this home the class and luxury of a much more expensive home. The location is great. .. just inside of the west Villages of Pinellas gate. Walking distance to Pinellas Plaza with all of its specialty restaurants, banks and shops. This is a must see home.

20. 2017-06-14
    status Pending 469-char remark

    Show marketing remark (469 chars)

    Better Than New Patio Villa. This home comes with the much sought after laminate floors in the living room and dining room. Designer Colors brighten up the interior of this home. Beautiful Cherry Wood cabinets give this home the class and luxury of a much more expensive home. The location is great. .. just inside of the west Villages of Pinellas gate. Walking distance to Pinellas Plaza with all of its specialty restaurants, banks and shops. This is a must see home.

21. 2017-06-09
    listed $189,900 Active 469-char remark

    Show marketing remark (469 chars)

    Better Than New Patio Villa. This home comes with the much sought after laminate floors in the living room and dining room. Designer Colors brighten up the interior of this home. Beautiful Cherry Wood cabinets give this home the class and luxury of a much more expensive home. The location is great. .. just inside of the west Villages of Pinellas gate. Walking distance to Pinellas Plaza with all of its specialty restaurants, banks and shops. This is a must see home.

22. 2015-05-04
    soldstatus $175,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,685 · $307/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,685 · $307/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,998
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$3,685
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,480
• − Management: −$2,480
• − HOA: −$2,388
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$6,616
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,588
• After-tax cash flow: $-36/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Villages, FL
• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 28,549
• Household income: $96,775
• Rent vs Own: 5.7% rent · 94.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 307.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 20.47%
• Current HPI: 229.0075
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+68.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-06 Listed $295,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-09 Sold (Public Records) $186,000 Public Records
• 2017-08-03 Sold (Public Records) $184,000 Public Records
• 2017-07-27 Sold (MLS) $184,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-06-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-06-09 Listed $189,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-05-04 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,685 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.