3207 Dodge St · Tampa, FL 33605

$338,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1961 7,875 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Welcome to 3207 Dodge St—a beautifully updated 4-bedroom, 2-bath home in the heart of Tampa! Situated on a generous 7,875 sq ft lot, this move-in-ready property blends modern finishes with everyday functionality, perfect for families or anyone seeking stylish comfort. The standout kitchen is a true centerpiece, featuring sleek two-tone cabinetry with rich dark lower cabinets and warm wood uppers, complemented by elegant quartz countertops and a marble-look backsplash. Stainless steel appliances, recessed lighting, and ample counter space make it ideal for cooking, entertaining, and gathering with loved ones. The open layout flows seamlessly, cre

Key facts

• Standout kitchen
• Quartz countertops
• Updated home

Tags

• UPDATED HOME
• STANDOUT KITCHEN
• TWO-TONE CABINETRY
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• MARBLE-LOOK BACKSPLASH
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Residential zoning RS-60; Corner lot; Lot dimensions approximately 75 x 105; Property size listed as less than 1/4 acre
• HOA & community: No association reported

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces west
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Other construction materials; Shingle and tile roof; Block and slab foundation; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Exterior lighting; Private mailbox; Sidewalk

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl; Other
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen open to family room; Open floor plan; Solid surface counters; Solid wood cabinets; Interior in-law suite with private entry
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room (other)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $338k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-426 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $263k (22.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (36.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (36.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#142 in FL, #2,135 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime D+.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 190 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,137/mo this rent would consume 69% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 1374% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $36k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$58k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($333k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $338k implies a 182% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,667 (36.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.40%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.58% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $151,757
• Equity at exit: $304,497

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.85×
• Total profit: $458,716
• Equity at exit: $656,660

Cash invested: $94,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33605

• Home prices YoY: 3.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 190
• Price-to-rent: 13.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,137 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,773
• Tax from tax record: −$201 /mo · $2,409/yr
• Insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $-426

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,676

Max offer price $262,717

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-235	-5% $-330	+0% $-426	+5% $-522	+10% $-617
Rent	-10% $-595	-5% $-511	+0% $-426	+5% $-342	+10% $-257
Rate	-1.0pp $-256	-0.5pp $-340	base $-426	+0.5pp $-514	+1.0pp $-603

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,500
• Closing costs: $10,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3212 N 50th St Unit B Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1005	$2,200	$2.19	16d	1	0.37mi
3417 Temple St Unit B Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	975	$1,600	$1.64	25d	1	0.45mi
3706 N 52nd St #1 Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	1334	$2,500	$1.87	4d	1	0.68mi
3517 Bishop Eddie Newkirk Way Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,500	$2.08	25d	1	0.69mi
3716 N 52nd St Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,650	$1.43	12d	1	0.70mi
3716 N 52nd St Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,650	$1.43	6d	1	0.70mi
3716 N 52nd St Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,650	$1.43	25d	1	0.70mi
3511 Bishop Eddie Newkirk Way Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	12d	1	0.72mi
3511 Bishop Eddie Newkirk Way Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	25d	1	0.72mi
3507 E 29th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	928	$1,700	$1.83	25d	1	0.76mi
3611 N 54th St Unit 3 Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1126	$1,895	$1.68	4d	1	0.81mi
3420 N 55th St Unit B Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1095	$1,500	$1.37	25d	1	0.82mi
4403 N 48th St Tampa, FL	4.0	2.0	1387	$2,500	$1.80	25d	1	0.84mi
3705 E North Bay St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	969	$1,850	$1.91	4d	1	0.84mi
3724 E 38th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,895	$1.60	25d	1	0.86mi
4506 N 42nd St Tampa, FL	3.0	1.5	792	$1,900	$2.40	0d	1	0.89mi
5318 E 18th Ave Tampa, FL	4.0	2.0	1270	$1,955	$1.54	25d	1	0.92mi
4501 N 39th St Tampa, FL	4.0	1.0	1072	$1,595	$1.49	23d	1	0.97mi
3107 Chipco St Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1268	$1,799	$1.42	25d	1	1.03mi
3716 N 31st St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,895	$1.58	6d	1	1.14mi
3101 E 18th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,750	$1.67	4d	1	1.16mi
3411 E 9th Ave Tampa, FL	4.0	1.0	1116	$1,700	$1.52	25d	1	1.20mi
3212 E Emma St Tampa, FL	4.0	2.0	1332	$2,300	$1.73	4d	1	1.25mi
3111 E Cayuga St Tampa, FL	4.0	2.0	1315	$2,250	$1.71	25d	1	1.31mi
3002 E 38th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1413	$2,600	$1.84	25d	1	1.31mi
2704 E 25th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	858	$1,595	$1.86	23d	1	1.31mi
4303 N 30th St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1260	$3,200	$2.54	3d	1	1.34mi
3413 E Louisiana Ave #2 Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	1489	$2,500	$1.68	25d	1	1.36mi
4204 N 29th St Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	957	$1,800	$1.88	25d	1	1.39mi
2607 Lindell Ave Tampa, FL	4.0	2.0	1448	$2,395	$1.65	4d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-04
   price $338,000
3. 2026-04-28
   status Active
4. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
5. 2026-04-14
   listed $339,000 Active
6. 2026-02-23
   soldstatus $120,000
7. 1979-04-01
   soldstatus $26,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,409 · $201/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,805 · $234/mo
• Expected delta: +$396/yr (+$33/mo · 16.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,640
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,933
• − Property taxes: −$2,409
• − Insurance: −$1,690
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,051
• − Management: −$2,051
• − Depreciation: −$9,833
• Taxable loss: −$11,328
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,719
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,395/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tampa

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #2135

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tampa, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 523,346
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,030
• Household income: $36,975
• Rent vs Own: 59.8% rent · 40.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1374.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 48% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 18% White 17% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 24% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.43%
• Current HPI: 494.1871
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.58%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1200.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $338,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Listed $339,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-23 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 1979-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $26,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,409 · +12.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.