23939 NE 121 Ln · Lake Kerr, FL 32134

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,212 sqft · Manufactured public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1985 0.34 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Freshly remodeled 3 bedroom 1 bath home in Salt Springs on an oversized lot! Features include updated interior finishes, a spacious yard, new roof, tankless water heater, and two storage buildings with power! Great opportunity for a vacation home, rental investment, or a full time residence. Plenty of room for boats, ATV's, and other outdoor equipment. Conveniently located near Lake Kerr, Lake George, and Salt Springs!

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Remodeled
• Room for boats

Tags

• REMODELED
• UPDATED INTERIOR FINISHES
• SPACIOUS YARD
• NEW ROOF
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER
• ROOM FOR BOATS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: No lease restrictions
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: No parking details provided
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity available; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One level; Faces east
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as manufactured home (double wide)
• Exterior features: Sliding doors; On-site storage / shed

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Tankless water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Parquet flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Thermostat; Sliding doors; Storage space / shed
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $22 ($270/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (18.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $135k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 299 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $6k; list at $165k implies a 2650% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,000 (18.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.58%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-25,343
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-20,381
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32134

• Home prices YoY: -24.4%
• Active inventory: 299
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,350 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$110 /mo · $1,320/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $22

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,322

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13260 NE 250th Ct Fort Mc Coy, FL	2.0	2.0	1494	$1,350	$0.90	12d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $165,000 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-26
    listed $165,000 Active
17. 2026-02-01
    historical
18. 2025-10-25
    price $175,000
19. 2025-08-05
    listed $189,000 Active
20. 2009-10-12
    historical
21. 2008-09-12
    listed $79,900
22. 1997-03-01
    soldstatus $6,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,320 · $110/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,370 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$50/yr (+$4/mo · 3.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,320
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,296
• − Management: −$1,296
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$2,579
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$619
• After-tax cash flow: $889/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Kerr

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Kerr, FL
• Population (ZIP): 7,400

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.45%
• Current HPI: 224.9549
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2650.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-25 Price Changed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-05 Listed $189,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-10-12 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-09-12 Listed $79,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $6,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,320 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.