121 N 9th St · Herrin, IL 62948

$95,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · SingleFamily · 146 Days on market

Built 1910 6,000 sqft lot Est $131k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Well maintained, move-in ready, and full of upgrades! This charming 3BR, 1 BA home on a corner lot makes this the perfect starter home. Updates in the last 5 years include new roof, siding, kitchen cabinets, bedroom & bath windows, HVAC, walk in shower and tankless water heater. Other features include hardwood floors, safety bars in shower, and in the backyard you will find 2 sheds for storage.

Key facts

• New siding
• Efficient furnace
• Kitchen cabinets

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW SIDING
• KITCHEN CABINETS
• BEDROOM WINDOWS
• BATH WINDOWS
• EFFICIENT FURNACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; other parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached single-family home; Over 100 years old; Zoned residential
• Construction: Vinyl siding over frame construction; Brick/mortar and concrete perimeter foundation; Built before 1978
• Exterior features: Front porch; Corner, level lot (50 x 120)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level, hardwood floors; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level): Master 13 x 15, Bedroom 10 x 12, Bedroom 8 x 10
• Flooring: Hardwood flooring in most main rooms; Carpet in one bedroom
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heat (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Partial, unfinished basement with crawl space and egress window
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room (5 x 9) with washer and dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $264 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#667 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: schools D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Herrin CUSD 4 (suburban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #364 of 620 in IL (top 59%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 130 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.91%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $131,144
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
201 S 9th St	0.16mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,344 (-1%)	3mo	$44,000	$33	84
320 N 9th St	0.13mi	3/1.0	1,162 (-14%)	1mo	$159,700	$137	70
221 S 10th St	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,546 (+14%)	3mo	$112,000	$72	64
616 N 9th St	0.32mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,250 (-8%)	8mo	$45,000	$36	61
716 N 13th St	0.45mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,232 (-9%)	0mo	$119,000	$97	59
617 N 10th St	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,508 (+12%)	4mo	$149,000	$99	58
917 S 11th St	0.69mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,291 (-4%)	1mo	$131,848	$102	55
911 E Stotlar St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,472 (+9%)	1mo	$215,000	$146	53
508 S 13th St	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,220 (-10%)	8mo	$90,000	$74	52
509 W Madison St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+8%)	5mo	$130,000	$89	48
621 S 4th St	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,485 (+10%)	5mo	$175,000	$118	46
912 N 13th St	0.55mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,207 (-11%)	6mo	$74,500	$62	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $1,386
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $22,702
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62948

• Home prices YoY: -34.1%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,050 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $334/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$221
• Net cashflow: $264

Break-even live

Break-even rent $716

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $318	-5% $291	+0% $264	+5% $237	+10% $210
Rent	-10% $181	-5% $223	+0% $264	+5% $306	+10% $347
Rate	-1.0pp $312	-0.5pp $288	base $264	+0.5pp $239	+1.0pp $214

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6 Court C Herrin, IL	2.0	1.0	900	$895	$0.99	44d	1	0.93mi
3 Ct D Herrin, IL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,195	$1.20	44d	1	0.96mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $95,000 Active 146 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 145 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $95,000 Active 144 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $98,900 Active 144 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $98,900 Active 143 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $98,900 Active 142 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $98,900 Active 140 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $98,900 Active 139 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $98,900 Active 137 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $98,900 Active 136 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $98,900 Active 135 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $98,900 Active 134 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $98,900 Active 130 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $98,900 Active 129 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $98,900 Active 128 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $98,900 Active 127 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $98,900 Active 126 DOM
18. 2026-05-23
    historical
19. 2026-05-23
    status Active
20. 2026-05-23
    price
21. 2026-05-14
    status Pending
22. 2026-04-17
    historical Contingent - Continue to Show
23. 2026-04-17
    historical
24. 2026-03-13
    price
25. 2026-01-28
    price
26. 2026-01-06
    historical
27. 2025-11-13
    listed Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $334 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,245 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$911/yr (+$76/mo · 273.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,603
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$334
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,008
• − Management: −$1,008
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $1,692
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$406
• After-tax cash flow: $2,763/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Herrin CUSD 4
• NCES district ID: 1718810
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $38,824
• Composite: 20.56/100
• National rank: #8558
• State rank: #364 of 620 in IL

Livability — Herrin

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #667
• US rank: #13670

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Herrin, IL
• City population: 12,728
• Population (ZIP): 12,728

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 69,553 people
• By 2030: 70,090 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 70,345 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 69,394 · -0.2%
• By 2075: 63,590 · -8.6%
• By 2100: 51,154 · -26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.8) · D 30.0% · R 68.8% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.0pp toward R · 2008: -14.8pp · 2024: -38.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.8 2020: R+37.3 2016: R+41.2 2012: R+25.0 2008: R+14.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.82%
• Current HPI: 131.1617
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Property tax history

+67.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $334 · +20.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.