40747 Barley Straw Dr · Magnolia, TX 77354

$279,990

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,252 sqft · SingleFamily · 40 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 6,060 sqft lot $124/sqft · 6% below area Est $298k · 6% under $63/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• ARV discount +10.3/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0

Listing remarks

WONDERFUL FIVE BEDROOM TWO STORY BRAND NEW D. R. HORTON HOME IN MILL CREEK! FANTASTIC COMMUNITY IN EXCELLENT LOCATION! Close to endless entertainment options! Great two story with gourmet island kitchen! Includes quartz counter tops, quality cabinets, stainless steel appliances and an open concept floorplan with the kitchen flowing seamlessly into the dining room and living room! The main bedroom has an attractive ensuite bathroom that features a quartz vanity countertop! Enjoy additional storage with a spacious walk-in closet located off of the primary bathroom. Spacious secondary bedrooms! Fantastic outdoor space with landscape package and sprinkler system! Hurry and Call Today! Move I

Key facts

• 6,060 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community managed by Inframark; HOA fee of $760 annually; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Prewired for security; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction (2026); Faces east; Slab foundation
• Construction: Built by D.R. Horton; Brick and cement siding exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Porch; Private yard; Sprinkler / irrigation; Back yard fencing; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Kitchen island; Breakfast bar; Pantry; Quartz counters
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 15 x 14); Bedroom on second floor (approx. 12 x 10); Bedroom on second floor (approx. 10 x 10); Bedroom on second floor (approx. 10 x 10); Bedroom on second floor (approx. 10 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank flooring; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric); Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen island; Kitchen and family room combined; Primary bedroom with en-suite bath; Pantry; Quartz countertops; Kitchen and dining area combined; Living and dining area combined; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Tankless water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $280k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $122 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $268k (4.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $268k (4.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1621 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $78k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $268,299 (4.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.86%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $298,332
• List price: $279,990
• Delta: -6.15%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15110 Rose Willow Ln	0.00mi	5/2.5	2,252 (0%)	2mo	$299,990	$133	98
40734 Barley Straw Dr	0.00mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,041 (-9%)	0mo	$314,990	$154	77
14522 Montclair Way	0.36mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,261 (+0%)	2mo	$285,000	$126	76
40475 Garden Heights Ln	0.62mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,325 (+3%)	3mo	$299,500	$129	56
15307 Mountain Plover Pl	0.53mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,064 (-8%)	1mo	$314,900	$153	56
15443 Park Perch Pl	0.54mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,064 (-8%)	2mo	$327,900	$159	54
15459 Park Perch Pl	0.57mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,061 (-8%)	2mo	$309,990	$150	53
15206 N Heron Heights Way	0.46mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,997 (-11%)	1mo	$335,000	$168	52
40610 Mill Creek Rd	0.59mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,082 (-8%)	2mo	$575,000	$276	51
15447 Park Perch Pl	0.55mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,502 (+11%)	1mo	$329,900	$132	50
40762 Rosemary Rain Ln	0.65mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,487 (+10%)	1mo	$300,000	$121	46
40603 Balsam Run Ln	0.72mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,041 (-9%)	1mo	$321,990	$158	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.96×
• Total profit: $153,269
• Equity at exit: $252,237

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.52×
• Total profit: $432,628
• Equity at exit: $543,959

Cash invested: $78,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1621
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,683 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$350 /mo · $4,200/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$563
• Net cashflow: $122

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,529

Max offer price $279,990

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $315	-5% $218	+0% $122	+5% $25	+10% $-72
Rent	-10% $-90	-5% $16	+0% $122	+5% $228	+10% $334
Rate	-1.0pp $263	-0.5pp $193	base $122	+0.5pp $49	+1.0pp $-25

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,998
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14727 Band Tailed Pigeon Ct Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	1942	$2,700	$1.39	44d	1	0.16mi
40547 Berylline Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1753	$2,300	$1.31	44d	1	0.43mi
14983 Clay Harvest Rdg Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2173	$2,375	$1.09	44d	1	0.55mi
15128 Lavender Mist Ct Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2561	$2,800	$1.09	20d	1	0.74mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,990 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,990 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $279,990 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $279,990 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $279,990 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $279,990 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $279,990 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $279,990 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-05-11
   price $279,990 706-char remark
10. 2026-05-06
    price $285,990 706-char remark
11. 2026-05-01
    price $292,990 706-char remark
12. 2026-04-30
    listed $307,990 Active 706-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,196
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$4,200
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,576
• − Management: −$2,576
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$3,140
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$754
• After-tax cash flow: $2,213/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This brand new, move-in-ready home in Magnolia, TX, offers a modern kitchen, two bathrooms with quartz countertops, and well-maintained exterior and interior features. It is in excellent condition and ready for immediate occupancy.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's appeal and market value.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Upgrading to more modern or energy-efficient appliances can increase the home's value and attract more buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's appeal and market value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Upgrading to more modern or energy-efficient appliances can increase the home's value and attract more buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $279,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $285,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $292,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $307,990 HARMLS