10144 Shamrock Lode · Alta Sierra, CA 95949

$185,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,416 sqft · Manufactured · 29 Days on market

Built 2016 2,823 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Immaculate and well maintained 3 bedroom 2 bath home plus office in the sought after Forest Springs Park. This home's location in the park is special, as it is on the paved walking path the leads to the clubhouse, not many homes have this feature. There is a beautiful wood privacy fence and cute backyard with garden. There is a cover back deck and covered front porch. Inside you are greeted with natural light and an open floor plan that is very inviting and laminate flooring throughout home. This is a 55+ park and approval is required prior to purchase.

Key facts

• Paved walking path
• Open floor plan
• Laminate flooring

Tags

• PAVED WALKING PATH
• WOOD PRIVACY FENCE
• BACK DECK
• FRONT PORCH
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LAMINATE FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Not a land lease property
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered parking
• Utilities: Natural gas connected; Electric service (other); Private sewer; Private water
• Home design: Manufactured home in a park; Double-wide; Built in 2016
• Construction: Wood skirting; Composition roof; Champion manufactured home
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Landscape features; Storage area; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Stone countertops; Free-standing refrigerator; Gas cook top; Free-standing gas oven; Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (including master bedroom)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Tubs with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Covered deck off the living area; Dual-pane windows; Covered deck; Storage area; Shed(s) on the property; Pets allowed
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry inside the home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $847 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $182k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 3.4% in Alta Sierra — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#662 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Nevada Joint Union High (town): math 25% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #201 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 252 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 215 units permitted in Nevada County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nevada County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,225 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.63%
• DSCR: 1.87
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $94,872
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10131 Shamrock Lode	0.03mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,488 (+5%)	1mo	$60,000	$40	84
10040 Stone Arch Dr	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+2%)	4mo	$85,000	$59	84
10042 Grinding Rock Dr	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+2%)	5mo	$90,000	$63	80
10150 Stone Arch Dr	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-5%)	1mo	$55,000	$41	80
14969 N Country Rd	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+3%)	1mo	$82,500	$57	76
14821 Hidden Rock Dr #282	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,337 (-6%)	1mo	$89,500	$67	74
10088 Dalewood Way	0.40mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+2%)	0mo	$138,000	$96	73
10024 Golden Shore Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,566 (+11%)	0mo	$210,000	$134	73
10046 Dalewood Way	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+2%)	2mo	$160,000	$111	73
10073 Dalewood Way	0.40mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+2%)	1mo	$115,000	$80	73
10086 Grinding Rock Dr #208	0.27mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+8%)	1mo	$75,000	$49	67
14338 St Hwy 49 #79	0.52mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+2%)	5mo	$120,000	$83	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $23,942
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $90,141
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95949

• Home prices YoY: -34.7%
• Active inventory: 252
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,511 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,065/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$527
• Net cashflow: $847

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,438

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15487 Kingsbury Cir Grass Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	3d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $185,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $185,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $185,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $185,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 11 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 10 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,065 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,406 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: +$341/yr (+$28/mo · 32.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,127
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$1,065
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,410
• − Management: −$2,410
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable income: $7,572
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,817
• After-tax cash flow: $8,351/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nevada Joint Union High
• NCES district ID: 0626880
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $57,336
• Composite: 37.53/100
• National rank: #4393
• State rank: #201 of 517 in CA

Livability — Alta Sierra

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #662
• US rank: #20497

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Nevada County · 85,339 people
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 20,552
• Household income: $98,181
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 181.0

Population outlook (Nevada County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,490 people
• By 2030: 97,295 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 92,041 · -6.5%
• By 2050: 85,164 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 68,436 · -30.5%
• By 2100: 49,536 · -49.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nevada

• 2024 margin: D (+12.2) · D 54.4% · R 42.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 5.3pp · 2024: 12.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.2 2020: D+14.8 2016: D+4.5 2012: R+4.7 2008: D+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.41%
• Current HPI: 230.2373
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,065 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.