1212 41st Avenue Dr E · Ellenton, FL 34222

$80,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · Manufactured public records · 448 Days on market

Built 1964 3,093 sqft lot Est $119k · 33% under $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

PRICE IMPROVEMENT! MOVE IN READY Welcome to Tidevue Estates, a vibrant 55+ community offering immediate occupancy in a fully furnished home. This charming residence features a front porch with new screens to be installed and a brand-new roof in 2025. The living room is open and spacious. The kitchen and dining room are perfect for gatherings, while the primary bedroom includes a walk-in closet and an ensuite bathroom with a walk-in shower. Enjoy the convenience of an inside laundry room. The extra-large carport provides ample space for an outdoor living room, golf cart parking, and cars. Don't miss this opportunity to join a welcoming community! Low HOA of only $600 annually. Pets are not p

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Front porch
• Walk-in shower

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• NEW ROOF
• ELECTRIC FIREPLACE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Tidevue Estates Civic Organization) with required approval; HOA fee $50 monthly ($600 annually); HOA includes pool and recreational facilities; Community amenities: fitness center, laundry, park, pickleball courts, pool, recreation facilities, shuffleboard, street lights; Senior community; Pets not allowed; Buyer approval required; Deed restrictions; Golf carts allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Residential mobile home (double wide); One level; Faces west
• Construction: Metal siding and frame construction; Membrane roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a double wide mobile home
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Rain gutters; Asphalt road access; Public maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer inside; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.7% vs local median 4.5% in Ellenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 182 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,478/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 313% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 448 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $80k implies a 181% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 448 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 72.76%
• DSCR: 4.24
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $119,232
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1204 43rd Ave E	0.13mi	2/2.0	903 (+4%)	4mo	$73,500	$81	79
1416 41st Ave E	0.16mi	2/2.0	800 (-7%)	3mo	$160,000	$200	74
4212 13th St E	0.09mi	2/2.0	960 (+11%)	2mo	$175,000	$182	72
1224 41st Avenue Dr E	0.05mi	2/2.0	963 (+12%)	4mo	$125,000	$130	71
4603 10th Street Ct E	0.33mi	2/1.5	780 (-10%)	3mo	$108,000	$138	64
1005 45th Ave E	0.24mi	2/2.0	960 (+11%)	4mo	$100,000	$104	63
1532 47th Avenue Dr E	0.47mi	2/1.0	784 (-9%)	1mo	$129,900	$166	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 72.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.29×
• Total profit: $73,605
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 76.4%
• Equity multiple: 8.85×
• Total profit: $175,747
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34222

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Active inventory: 182
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,478 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$96 /mo · $1,157/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$520
• Net cashflow: $1,358

Break-even live

Break-even rent $759

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 40%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,403	-5% $1,381	+0% $1,358	+5% $1,336	+10% $1,313
Rent	-10% $1,162	-5% $1,260	+0% $1,358	+5% $1,456	+10% $1,554
Rate	-1.0pp $1,398	-0.5pp $1,379	base $1,358	+0.5pp $1,337	+1.0pp $1,316

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4403 7th St E #4 Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1079	$2,700	$2.50	24d	1	0.45mi
1651 36th Ave E Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	804	$1,397	$1.74	4d	13	0.56mi
5021 US Highway 301 N Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.5	861	$3,900	$4.53	4d	1	0.58mi
4180 Yardly Dr Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1021	$2,498	$2.45	4d	15	0.62mi
5942 Factory Shops Blvd Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	953	$2,362	$2.48	2d	67	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 448 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 447 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 446 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 445 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 443 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 442 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $80,000 Active 440 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 439 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $80,000 Active 438 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $80,000 Active 437 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $80,000 Active 433 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $80,000 Active 432 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 431 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 430 DOM
15. 2026-02-26
    price $80,000
16. 2025-03-27
    listed $110,000 Active
17. 1989-06-01
    soldstatus $28,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,157 · $96/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,157 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,733
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$1,157
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,379
• − Management: −$2,379
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $16,010
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,843
• After-tax cash flow: $12,455/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ellenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ellenton, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 14,819
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,819
• Household income: $64,355
• Rent vs Own: 21.9% rent · 78.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 313.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Black 7% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.75%
• Current HPI: 293.2597
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+180.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $80,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-27 Listed $110,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1989-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $28,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,157 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.