2123 Fox Pl · Mendota Heights, MN 55120

$325,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,525 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1956 1,001 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.4/30.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Three bedroom rambler featuring all bedrooms on one level, a primary 3/4 bath, and main level laundry. New HVAC both AC and furnace in 2019, new oven in 2021.

Key facts

• 1,001 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1956

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No pool
• Financial info: Mortgages: Other

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Natural gas; Electric service with circuit breakers (Xcel Energy)
• Home design: Residential property; One story; Main-level primary bedroom; Above- and below-grade finished living areas present
• Construction: Block foundation; Block and steel siding construction; Asphalt roof (age over 8 years)
• Exterior features: Enclosed front and rear porches; Screened porch; Front porch; Rear porch; No fencing; Medium tree coverage on the lot; City street frontage; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Kitchen window
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: Main floor full bathroom; Main floor three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Hardwood floors; Kitchen window; Main-floor primary bedroom; Porch; Washer/dryer hookup; Separate/formal dining room; Screened porch; Brick wood-burning fireplace in the living room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement; Laundry in hall; Washer/dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $660 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $325k).
• Recommended offer: $315k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 1.3% in Mendota Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#26 in MN, #828 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• West St. Paul-Mendota Hts.-Eagan (suburban): math 42% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #125 of 301 in MN (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,134 units permitted in Dakota County in 2024 (898 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dakota County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $315,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.70%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-10,688
• Equity at exit: $48,459

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $44,649
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55120

• Home prices YoY: -22.3%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,499 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$265 /mo · $3,176/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$735
• Net cashflow: $660

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,664

Max offer price $325,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
720 S Plaza Way Saint Paul, MN	1.0–2.0	2.0	1102	$3,795	$3.44	3d	5	0.28mi
725 S Plaza Way Saint Paul, MN	1.0–2.0	2.0	1128	$3,295	$2.92	3d	5	0.31mi
710 Vikings Pkwy Eagan, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1259	$2,995	$2.38	1d	6	1.42mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-05
   historical Contingent - Inspection
3. 2026-05-03
   price $325,000
4. 2026-04-11
   listed $349,900 Active
5. 2026-03-28
   price $349,900
6. 2026-03-27
   historical $249,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,176 · $265/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,408 · $284/mo
• Expected delta: +$232/yr (+$19/mo · 7.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,985
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$3,176
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,359
• − Management: −$3,359
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable income: $2,807
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$674
• After-tax cash flow: $7,242/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West St. Paul-Mendota Hts.-Eagan
• NCES district ID: 2742270
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $63,769
• Composite: 42.4/100
• National rank: #3234
• State rank: #125 of 301 in MN

Livability — Mendota Heights

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #26
• US rank: #828

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mendota Heights, MN
• City population: 5,080
• Population (ZIP): 5,080

Population outlook (Dakota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 450,671 people
• By 2030: 465,068 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 486,770 · +8.0%
• By 2050: 498,743 · +10.7%
• By 2075: 533,865 · +18.5%
• By 2100: 550,133 · +22.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Two or more races 18% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 9% Romanian 4% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dakota

• 2024 margin: D (+12.9) · D 55.4% · R 42.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.5pp · 2024: 12.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+4.7 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.00%
• Current HPI: 222.5557
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+30.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-05 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $325,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-11 Listed $349,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $349,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Coming Soon $249,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,176 · +8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.