150 Pestana Ave #99 · Manteca, CA 95336

$93,999

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Manufactured · 134 Days on market

Built 1976 $94/sqft · 20% below area Est $118k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 150 Pestana Ave. Space 99 in Manteca, CA. A Charming Double Wide, 2 Bedroom/2 Bath, 1000 Sq. Ft. Mobile Home located in a welcoming 55+ Community with many amenities including a Clubhouse, Recreational Facilities and a Swimming Pool. Spacious Open Floor Plan with Brand New Oven, Wheel Chair Lift, Kitchen Nook and more.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Clubhouse
• Double wide

Tags

• DOUBLE WIDE
• 55 COMMUNITY
• CLUBHOUSE
• RECREATIONAL FACILITIES
• SWIMMING POOL
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $94k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $94k).
• Recommended offer: $83k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.9% vs local median 2.7% in Manteca — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#535 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, commute F.
• Manteca Unified (suburban): math 15% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #297 of 517 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 270 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $650 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 134 days — a 12% lower offer ($83k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $82,719 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 134 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 48.66%
• DSCR: 3.17
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $118,165
• List price: $93,999
• Delta: -20.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
150 Pestana Ave #24	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,042 (+4%)	8mo	$70,000	$67	84
1830 E Yosemite Ave #150	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,000 (0%)	7mo	$140,000	$140	79
150 Pestana Way #117	0.08mi	2/2.0	960 (-4%)	13mo	$55,000	$57	78
150 Pestana #50	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,120 (+12%)	8mo	$125,000	$112	69
1830 E Yosemite Ave #78	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,040 (+4%)	14mo	$134,900	$130	68
1830 E Yosemite Ave #10	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,040 (+4%)	15mo	$120,000	$115	67
1830 E Yosemite Ave #136	0.29mi	2/2.0	946 (-5%)	15mo	$149,500	$158	65
150 Pestana #43	0.08mi	2/1.0	896 (-10%)	12mo	$129,950	$145	64
1830 E Yosemite #22	0.26mi	2/1.0	880 (-12%)	7mo	$105,000	$119	58
1830 E Yosemite Ave #263	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,120 (+12%)	20mo	$145,000	$129	49
1830 E Yosemite Ave #283	0.33mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,117 (+12%)	20mo	$168,900	$151	44
1830 E Yosemite Ave #210	0.33mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,133 (+13%)	20mo	$164,000	$145	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $46,406
• Equity at exit: $14,016

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.93×
• Total profit: $103,458
• Equity at exit: $8,127

Cash invested: $26,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95336

• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 270
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,173 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$493
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$117 /mo · $1,410/yr
• Insurance: −$39
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $1,067

Break-even live

Break-even rent $822

Max offer price $93,999

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,132	-5% $1,100	+0% $1,067	+5% $1,035	+10% $1,002
Rent	-10% $896	-5% $981	+0% $1,067	+5% $1,153	+10% $1,239
Rate	-1.0pp $1,115	-0.5pp $1,091	base $1,067	+0.5pp $1,043	+1.0pp $1,018

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,500
• Closing costs: $2,820
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
150 Pestana Ave Apt Home Manteca, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$2,250	$3.21	44d	1	0.03mi
1815 Azure Ct Unit C Manteca, CA	2.0	2.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	19d	1	0.09mi
200 Northwoods Ave Manteca, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,675	$1.86	4d	1	0.36mi
1634 Sierra Creek Dr Manteca, CA	3.0	2.0	1411	$3,100	$2.20	19d	1	0.57mi
311 Charles Ave Manteca, CA	3.0	2.0	1092	$2,750	$2.52	24d	1	0.80mi
794 Button Ave Manteca, CA	2.0	2.0	1075	$2,300	$2.14	15d	1	0.87mi
794 Button Ave Manteca, CA	2.0	1.0	760	$2,100	$2.76	24d	1	0.87mi
225 N Fremont St Manteca, CA	2.0	2.0	926	$1,875	$2.02	44d	1	1.34mi
430 Sutter St Manteca, CA	2.0	1.0	804	$1,922	$2.39	3d	3	1.41mi
1005 E Atherton Dr Manteca, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1008	$2,495	$2.47	0d	6	1.41mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $93,999 Active 134 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $93,999 Active 133 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $93,999 Active 132 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $93,999 Active 131 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $93,999 Active 129 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $93,999 Active 128 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $93,999 Active 126 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,999 Active 125 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,999 Active 124 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,999 Active 123 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $95,999 Active 120 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,999 Active 119 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,999 Active 118 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,999 Active 117 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,999 Active 116 DOM
16. 2005-11-30
    soldstatus $85,000
17. 2005-11-22
    historical
18. 2005-10-07
    listed $85,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 31 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,079
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,265
• − Property taxes: −$1,410
• − Insurance: −$470
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,086
• − Management: −$2,086
• − Depreciation: −$2,735
• Taxable income: $12,026
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,886
• After-tax cash flow: $9,921/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manteca Unified
• NCES district ID: 0623610
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,426
• Composite: 28.5/100
• National rank: #6737
• State rank: #297 of 517 in CA

Livability — Manteca

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #535
• US rank: #17877

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime C Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Manteca, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 98,916
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 50,185
• Household income: $89,172
• Rent vs Own: 29.5% rent · 70.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 876.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 42% Two or more races 18% Asian 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 23% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -407.05%
• Current HPI: 268.5708
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.68%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2005-11-30 Sold (MLS) $85,000 MLSListings
• 2005-11-22 Listing Removed — MLSListings
• 2005-10-07 Listed $85,000 MLSListings