39015 Hillcrest Dr · Zephyrhills North, FL 33542

$59,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 552 sqft · Manufactured public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1967 3,920 sqft lot Est $47k · 26% over $83/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Own Your Piece of the Sunshine State! ?? Welcome to the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and affordability. Nestled in a peaceful 55+ community in the heart of Zephyrhills, this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom mobile home offers the ultimate Florida lifestyle without the burden of lot rent—you own your land! Step inside to discover a bright and airy open-concept floor plan. The seamless flow between the kitchen, dining area, and living room creates a spacious environment perfect for entertaining new friends or enjoying a quiet evening at home. Forget the stress of moving furniture! This home comes fully furnished, making it a truly "just bring your toothbrush" opportu

Key facts

• Sturdy storage shed
• Land ownership
• Fully furnished

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• FULLY FURNISHED
• LAND OWNERSHIP
• STURDY STORAGE SHED
• LOW MAINTENANCE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is approximately 0.09 acres on a paved, privately maintained road
• Financial info: Total annual fees listed as $1,000; Total monthly fees listed as $83.33; Property is offered furnished
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Hillcrest Estates) with required approval; HOA fee approximately $500 annually (about $41.67/month); Community clubhouse; Senior community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Private water; Septic tank; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Cable available
• Home design: Residential mobile home (single wide); One story; Faces south; Entry level: One
• Construction: Metal siding; Roof over; Crawlspace foundation; Approximately built area: 1,041 total building area
• Exterior features: Awning(s); Hurricane shutters; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Wall/window air conditioning unit(s)
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Exhaust fan
• Laundry & utility: Outside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $59k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $410 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $59k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.6% vs local median 7.7% in Zephyrhills North — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#787 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.6%/yr); 294 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $408 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $17k; list at $59k implies a 247% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $57,230 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.75%
• DSCR: 2.32
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $46,920
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
39206 Hillcrest Dr	0.19mi	2/1.0	576 (+4%)	7mo	$25,000	$43	74
6323 Ohio St	0.16mi	2/1.0	600 (+9%)	4mo	$35,000	$58	70
6231 Connecticut St	0.21mi	2/1.0	564 (+2%)	17mo	$45,000	$80	68
6341 Waterfront Ln	0.43mi	1/1.0 (-1)	552 (0%)	7mo	$18,000	$33	65
38734 Minnesota Ave	0.27mi	1/1.5 (-1)	600 (+9%)	2mo	$51,000	$85	64
39233 Recess Dr	0.31mi	1/1.0 (-1)	540 (-2%)	12mo	$65,000	$120	63
39121 Ola Ave	0.31mi	1/1.0 (-1)	576 (+4%)	14mo	$70,000	$122	58
38825 Inez Ave	0.64mi	2/1.0	616 (+12%)	15mo	$145,000	$235	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $13,281
• Equity at exit: $8,797

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.98×
• Total profit: $32,630
• Equity at exit: $5,101

Cash invested: $16,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33542

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Rents YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 294
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,128 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$309
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $778/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$83
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $410

Break-even live

Break-even rent $610

Max offer price $59,000

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,750
• Closing costs: $1,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
39029 Kirkland Dr Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	500	$950	$1.90	24d	1	0.06mi
38748 Calumet Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	5d	1	0.27mi
6052 10th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	644	$1,200	$1.86	24d	1	0.68mi
5600 Jennie St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	730	$1,100	$1.51	24d	1	0.80mi
5548 Annette St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	652	$1,049	$1.61	13d	1	0.81mi
38706 Daughtery Rd Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	445	$974	$2.19	17d	2	0.81mi
5603 Eugene Dr Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	652	$1,049	$1.61	13d	1	0.83mi
5552 Annette St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	652	$1,049	$1.61	24d	1	0.85mi
39041 Manor Dr Unit B Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	450	$1,000	$2.22	24d	1	0.94mi
5426 8th St #1 Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	432	$1,150	$2.66	24d	1	1.05mi
5217 17th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	540	$1,050	$1.94	24d	1	1.10mi
38010 14th Ave Apt 3 Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	537	$1,195	$2.23	24d	1	1.16mi
5206 7th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$950	$1.73	5d	1	1.22mi
5214 7th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$1,100	$2.00	17d	1	1.22mi
5214 7th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$950	$1.73	5d	1	1.22mi
5208 7th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$950	$1.73	5d	1	1.22mi
5611 1st St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,095	$1.82	17d	1	1.30mi
5150 6th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$925	$1.54	24d	1	1.31mi
38112 Townview Ave Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,100	$1.57	24d	1	1.35mi
4808 20th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	702	$1,295	$1.84	10d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $83 · $996/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $59,000 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $59,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $59,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $59,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $59,000 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $59,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $59,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $59,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $59,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $59,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $59,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $59,000 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,000 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-05-07
    listed $59,000 Active
15. 1983-11-01
    soldstatus $17,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $778 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $778 · $65/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,540
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,305
• − Property taxes: −$778
• − Insurance: −$295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,083
• − Management: −$1,083
• − HOA: −$996
• − Depreciation: −$1,716
• Taxable income: $4,283
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,028
• After-tax cash flow: $3,887/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zephyrhills North

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #787
• US rank: #18026

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Zephyrhills North, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,612
• Household income: $49,316
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 831.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.25%
• Current HPI: 313.3993
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.56%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+247.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $59,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1983-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $17,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $778 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.