9722 Ray St · Hudson, FL 34669

$138,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 864 sqft · Manufactured public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1978 0.46 ac lot Est $129k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +4.3/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. * * * * Back on the market * * * * * Previous buyers were unable to close due to credit related underwriting issues. Welcome to this charming, 2 Bedroom 1 1/2 bathroom well maintained manufactured home. This hidden gem sits on a 1/2 Acre lot with a large enclosed front porch and covered carport. Good opportunity for an investor looking for a rental property with potential and room to add unit(s) or someone looking to live away from the city on a nice piece of land. Foundation and septic fully repaired and inspected November of last year. Tenants are month to month.

Key facts

• 1/2 acre lot
• 0.46 acre lot
• Parking

Tags

• 1/2 ACRE LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $138k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $638 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $138k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 3.4% in Hudson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#289 in FL, #4,856 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, employment D, schools D-.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 299 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $954 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $138k implies a 1353% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,930 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.80%
• DSCR: 1.88
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $128,736
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9739 Kent St	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	784 (-9%)	2mo	$180,000	$230	72
9519 Clyde St	0.25mi	3/2.0	960 (+11%)	3mo	$101,000	$105	67
13602 Litewood Dr	0.51mi	2/1.0 (-1)	840 (-3%)	1mo	$59,000	$70	62
12520 Hicks Rd	0.62mi	3/2.0	904 (+5%)	13mo	$135,000	$149	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $18,243
• Equity at exit: $20,576

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $68,178
• Equity at exit: $11,932

Cash invested: $38,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34669

• Home prices YoY: -24.1%
• Active inventory: 299
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,958 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$724
• Tax from tax record: −$128 /mo · $1,534/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $638

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,151

Max offer price $138,000

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,500
• Closing costs: $4,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12909 Litewood Dr Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,645	$1.65	24d	1	0.23mi
12909 Litewood Dr Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	984	$1,645	$1.67	18d	1	0.23mi
12221 Holbrook Dr Bayonet Point, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	761	$1,685	$2.21	2d	59	1.29mi
11105 Pinto Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	672	$1,350	$2.01	13d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-03-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-20
   status Active
3. 2026-02-24
   status Pending
4. 2026-02-13
   listed $138,000 Active
5. 2026-02-11
   status Active
6. 2025-12-31
   historical
7. 2025-10-10
   status Pending
8. 2025-10-09
   status Active
9. 2025-08-28
   status Pending
10. 2025-08-17
    listed $125,000 Active
11. 1975-04-01
    soldstatus $9,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,534 · $128/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,534 · $128/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,492
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,730
• − Property taxes: −$1,534
• − Insurance: −$690
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,879
• − Management: −$1,879
• − Depreciation: −$4,015
• Taxable income: $5,764
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,383
• After-tax cash flow: $6,267/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Hudson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #289
• US rank: #4856

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 45,307
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,618
• Household income: $58,638
• Rent vs Own: 11.9% rent · 88.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 176.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Vietnamese 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.24%
• Current HPI: 321.5862
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1352.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-29 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-24 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-13 Listed $138,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-11 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-10 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-09 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-28 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-17 Listed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1975-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $9,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,534 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.