2709 Poplar St · Hopewell, VA 23860

$195,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,316 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1951 0.28 ac lot Est $241k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Back on the market. No fault of the seller.

Key facts

• 0.28 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1951

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Off-street parking (unpaved); No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property
• Construction: Frame construction with drywall and vinyl siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Front porch, side porch and deck; Storage shed; Fenced backyard

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooking; Oven; Stove; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Main-level primary bedroom
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump with natural gas; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Thermal windows; Laminate counters; Main-level primary bedroom; Bedroom on main level
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-26 ($-310/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $190k (2.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (18.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (18.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.2% in Hopewell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#224 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, schools A-; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Hopewell City Public School District (suburban): math 23% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #129 of 131 in VA (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.9%/yr); 228 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42 units permitted in Hopewell city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hopewell County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 42% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,484 (18.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.57%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $240,828
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3104 Saint Charles	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,315 (-0%)	1mo	$305,000	$232	76
602 Stonewall Ave	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,216 (-8%)	5mo	$158,000	$130	70
2604 Danville St	0.52mi	3/1.5	1,344 (+2%)	1mo	$244,950	$182	69
513 Miles Ave	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,260 (-4%)	5mo	$230,000	$183	66
1240 Maryville Ave	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,325 (+1%)	4mo	$290,500	$219	65
3213 Norfolk St	0.47mi	3/1.5	1,245 (-5%)	4mo	$158,000	$127	63
614 Terrace Ave	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,430 (+9%)	5mo	$275,000	$192	62
1702 Tabb Ave	0.61mi	3/1.5	1,264 (-4%)	3mo	$225,000	$178	61
317 S 19th Ave	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-4%)	1mo	$299,999	$238	56
1220 Maryville Ave	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,450 (+10%)	1mo	$299,000	$206	53
3003 Burge St	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,410 (+7%)	1mo	$253,000	$179	52
2210 Granby St	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,484 (+13%)	2mo	$208,000	$140	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-24,889
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $14,249
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23860

• Home prices YoY: -22.0%
• Rents YoY: 8.9%
• Active inventory: 228
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,585 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$174 /mo · $2,088/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $-26

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,618

Max offer price $190,430

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1004 Sunnyside Ave Hopewell, VA	4.0	2.0	875	$1,737	$1.99	4d	1	0.20mi
2958 Winston Churchill Dr Hopewell, VA	3.0	2.0	1576	$1,795	$1.14	23d	1	0.26mi
507 Hill Ave Hopewell, VA	3.0	1.0	932	$1,395	$1.50	23d	1	0.32mi
1206 Tabb Ave Hopewell, VA	3.0	1.0	974	$1,470	$1.51	43d	1	0.36mi
2305 Poplar St Unit B Hopewell, VA	2.0	1.5	959	$1,050	$1.09	23d	1	0.37mi
552 S 22nd Ave Hopewell, VA	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,800	$1.32	23d	1	0.38mi
522 S 22nd Ave Hopewell, VA	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,800	$1.32	23d	1	0.38mi
3200 Saint Charles St Hopewell, VA	3.0	1.5	1272	$1,595	$1.25	43d	1	0.43mi
2303 Maclin Cir Hopewell, VA	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,499	$1.30	3d	1	0.57mi
3314 Granby St Hopewell, VA	3.0	1.0	1469	$1,600	$1.09	23d	1	0.65mi
3500 Oaklawn Blvd Hopewell, VA	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,650	$1.65	17d	1	0.75mi
221 S Mesa Dr Hopewell, VA	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,300	$1.13	23d	1	0.76mi
3502 Oaklawn Blvd Hopewell, VA	3.0	1.0	1124	$1,850	$1.65	21d	1	0.76mi
460 Highland Ave Hopewell, VA	3.0	1.0	1212	$1,700	$1.40	20d	1	0.76mi
3309 Carlisle Ave Hopewell, VA	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,395	$1.21	21d	1	0.79mi
800 Chestnut St Hopewell, VA	2.0	1.0	884	$1,395	$1.58	43d	1	0.83mi
1900 Arlington Rd Hopewell, VA	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,695	$1.39	43d	1	0.90mi
600 Winston Churchill Dr Hopewell, VA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,075	$1.19	1d	1	0.95mi
305 S 9th Ave Hopewell, VA	4.0	1.0	1056	$1,599	$1.51	3d	1	1.01mi
3807 Woodlawn St Unit 8 Hopewell, VA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,095	$1.22	4d	1	1.05mi
1208 W Broadway Hopewell, VA	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,495	$1.25	16d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Coming Soon 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Coming Soon 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Coming Soon 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Coming Soon 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Coming Soon 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Coming Soon 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Coming Soon 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
9. 2026-06-07
   listed $195,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,088 · $174/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,088 · $174/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 42% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,018
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$2,088
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,521
• − Management: −$1,521
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$3,684
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$884
• After-tax cash flow: $574/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hopewell City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101980
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -54.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $38,234
• Composite: 29.95/100
• National rank: #6377
• State rank: #129 of 131 in VA

Livability — Hopewell

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #224
• US rank: #7437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hopewell, VA
• County: Hopewell City · 31,404 people
• City population: 31,404
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 31,404
• Household income: $62,141
• Rent vs Own: 36.8% rent · 63.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1055.0

Population outlook (Hopewell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,776 people
• By 2030: 21,457 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 20,882 · -4.1%
• By 2050: 20,239 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 18,905 · -13.2%
• By 2100: 16,949 · -22.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Black 42% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Romanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hopewell

• 2024 margin: D (+13.8) · D 56.4% · R 42.6% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.8pp toward D · 2008: 11.9pp · 2024: 13.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.8 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+9.3 2012: D+16.0 2008: D+11.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.28%
• Current HPI: 302.6343
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.86%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+477.8% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Coming Soon $195,000 CVRMLS
• 2024-01-04 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2023-12-29 Sold (MLS) $175,000 CVRMLS
• 2023-11-29 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2023-11-27 Price Changed $179,950 CVRMLS
• 2023-10-22 Relisted — CVRMLS
• 2023-10-15 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2023-10-09 Price Changed $185,000 CVRMLS
• 2023-09-20 Price Changed $193,000 CVRMLS
• 2023-09-13 Relisted — CVRMLS
• 2023-09-07 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2023-08-24 Price Changed $198,000 CVRMLS
• 2023-08-11 Listed $210,000 CVRMLS
• 2002-11-06 Sold (Public Records) $63,000 Public Records
• 2002-11-05 Sold (MLS) $63,000 CVRMLS
• 2002-11-05 Sold (MLS) $63,000 CVRMLS
• 2002-08-06 Listed $64,500 CVRMLS
• 2002-08-06 Listed $64,500 CVRMLS
• 1994-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $33,749 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,088 · +53.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.