422 Blue Grass Way · Princeton, TX 75407

$107,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Manufactured · 18 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2026 Good condition $83/sqft · 52% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.9/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -5.7

Listing remarks

Welcome to this brand new, single-wide 3 bed/2 bath home that offers the perfect blend of comfort, affordability, and modern living. This home boasts an open floor plan, new appliances, and access to community amenities. Don't miss out on the chance to make this charming and affordable residence your own. Schedule a showing today! * All photos and renderings shown are for illustration purposes only. Actual home may vary.

Key facts

• Built 2026
• Listed 17 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $108k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $367 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $108k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 4.5% in Princeton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#969 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Princeton ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #188 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Harper El (math 50% / reading 41%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 436 students, 56% FRL); Clark Middle (math 53% / reading 42%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 707 students, 66% FRL); Princeton H S (math 52% / reading 54%, grade C-, #437 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 1,521 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 2157 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 40d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($100k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $746 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $106,379 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.54%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $224,700
• List price: $107,999
• Delta: -51.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3016 County Road 743	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-3%)	14mo	$200,000	$159	67
409 Bluegrass Way	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,516 (+17%)	8mo	$149,900	$99	65
131 Spurgeon St	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,540 (+19%)	16mo	$440,900	$286	60
9644 County Road 744	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+21%)	4mo	$299,500	$191	56
3253 Fm 3364	0.93mi	3/2.0	1,322 (+2%)	15mo	$1,100,000	$832	49
9528 County Road 1111	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+21%)	6mo	$199,900	$127	45
208 Joseph Dr	1.40mi	3/2.0	1,606 (+24%)	2mo	$335,000	$209	38
2359 County Road 900	1.09mi	3/2.0	1,140 (-12%)	17mo	$207,000	$182	31
523 Summit Pass Ln	1.47mi	3/2.0	1,480 (+14%)	13mo	$279,999	$189	31
2080 County Road 900	1.31mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-14%)	16mo	$278,000	$248	29
1914 County Road 900	1.40mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,415 (+9%)	15mo	$260,000	$184	28
800 Private Road 5581	0.92mi	3/1.0	1,456 (+12%)	18mo	$209,900	$144	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $1,736
• Equity at exit: $16,103

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $15,701
• Equity at exit: $9,338

Cash invested: $30,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 2 active
• Months of supply: 12.0 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $112,899 ($76/sqft)
• Median days on market: 67 d
• This list price: 50% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +127.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75407

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 2157
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,409 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$566
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$135 /mo · $1,620/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$296
• Net cashflow: $367

Break-even live

Break-even rent $945

Max offer price $107,999

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $441	-5% $404	+0% $367	+5% $329	+10% $292
Rent	-10% $255	-5% $311	+0% $367	+5% $422	+10% $478
Rate	-1.0pp $421	-0.5pp $394	base $367	+0.5pp $339	+1.0pp $310

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,000
• Closing costs: $3,240
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
120 Spurgeon St Princeton, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0	1408	$1,599	$1.14	20d	1	0.10mi
3033 County Road 743 Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,250	$0.93	51d	1	0.42mi
2583 FM 982 Princeton, TX	2.0	1.0	952	$1,495	$1.57	120d	1	0.42mi
2768 Poppy Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1344	$1,500	$1.12	64d	1	0.75mi
2768 Poppy Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1344	$1,500	$1.12	20d	1	0.75mi
210 Nathan Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,500	$1.39	11d	1	0.93mi
207 Michael Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1824	$2,500	$1.37	83d	1	0.94mi
1803 Sabina Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1847	$2,100	$1.14	41d	1	1.02mi
2343 County Road 900 Unit 2 Princeton, TX	2.0	2.0	1190	$1,250	$1.05	32d	1	1.13mi
1525 Farm to Market Road 982 Princeton, TX	2.0–4.0	2.5	1551	$2,306	$1.49	0d	30	1.39mi
327 Stone Ct Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1676	$1,995	$1.19	25d	1	1.43mi
315 Stone Ct Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1573	$2,100	$1.34	139d	1	1.44mi
1501 Hidden Bluff Xing Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,875	$1.05	8d	1	1.45mi
303 Stone Ct Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1586	$1,700	$1.07	120d	1	1.45mi
303 Stone Ct Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1586	$1,650	$1.04	40d	1	1.45mi
308 Stone Ct Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1537	$1,900	$1.24	11d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $107,999 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-05-13
   listed $107,999 Active 424-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,904
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,050
• − Property taxes: −$1,620
• − Insurance: −$540
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,352
• − Management: −$1,352
• − Depreciation: −$3,142
• Taxable income: $2,848
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$684
• After-tax cash flow: $3,715/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This brand new, single-wide home is move-in ready with excellent condition and minimal maintenance required. It offers a great blend of comfort and modern living.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Modern flooring improves aesthetics and functionality ↑
• Both New appliances — Modern appliances enhance functionality and appeal ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 49/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Harper El D- TX #1,112/4,322 Nat'l #15,746/41,679 High Princeton H S C- TX #437/1,632 Nat'l #4,893/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Princeton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,827
• Composite: 42.44/100
• National rank: #3226
• State rank: #188 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Princeton

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #969
• US rank: #17215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,210,074 people
• City population: 34,171
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,171
• Household income: $100,037
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 17% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Mexico
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.99%
• Current HPI: 238.9373
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B