2009 Osprey Pl NW · Stewartville, MN 55976

$85,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 395 Days on market

Built 2017 2,439 sqft lot $63/sqft · 65% below area ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Here is your opportunity to become a homeowner for under 100k! This 3 bed, 2 bath manufactured home offers 1,352 sq ft of living space including a large kitchen, informal dining, family room, primary suite, walk-in closets and laundry. It's located in the Southern Hills/Northridge Place community that offers a heated outdoor swimming pool, clubhouse, basketball court, playgrounds, picnic areas, social events and more. Make it yours today!

Key facts

• Primary suite
• Walk-in closets
• Large kitchen

Tags

• LARGE KITCHEN
• INFORMAL DINING
• FAMILY ROOM
• PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• HEATED OUTDOOR SWIMMING POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $692 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.1% vs local median 2.5% in Stewartville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#18 in MN, #527 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Stewartville Public School District (town): math 46% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #120 of 301 in MN (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,267 units permitted in Olmsted County in 2024 (915 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Olmsted County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 395 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 395 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.85% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.88%
• DSCR: 2.55
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $242,030
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -64.88%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.27×
• Total profit: $30,290
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.49×
• Total profit: $83,121
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55976

• Home prices YoY: -27.8%
• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,574 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $848/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $692

Break-even live

Break-even rent $699

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2216 Osprey Pl NW Unit 470 Stewartville, MN	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,779	$1.13	13d	1	0.14mi
2028 Mockingbird Pl NW Unit 14 Stewartville, MN	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,459	$1.20	43d	1	0.14mi
2020 Lark Ln NW Unit 200 Stewartville, MN	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,449	$1.37	21d	1	0.19mi
1821 Daniel Ln NE Stewartville, MN	2.0	1.5	1080	$1,550	$1.44	43d	1	0.86mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $85,000 Active 395 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 394 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 393 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 392 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 391 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $85,000 Active 389 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 388 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $85,000 Active 386 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 385 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $85,000 Active 384 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 383 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 378 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 377 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 376 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $85,000 Active 375 DOM
16. 2025-05-19
    listed $85,000 Active 442-char remark

    Show marketing remark (442 chars)

    Here is your opportunity to become a homeowner for under 100k! This 3 bed, 2 bath manufactured home offers 1,352 sq ft of living space including a large kitchen, informal dining, family room, primary suite, walk-in closets and laundry. It's located in the Southern Hills/Northridge Place community that offers a heated outdoor swimming pool, clubhouse, basketball court, playgrounds, picnic areas, social events and more. Make it yours today!

17. 2025-05-19
    historical

    Show marketing remark (442 chars)

    Here is your opportunity to become a homeowner for under 100k! This 3 bed, 2 bath manufactured home offers 1,352 sq ft of living space including a large kitchen, informal dining, family room, primary suite, walk-in closets and laundry. It's located in the Southern Hills/Northridge Place community that offers a heated outdoor swimming pool, clubhouse, basketball court, playgrounds, picnic areas, social events and more. Make it yours today!

18. 2024-08-13
    status Active
19. 2024-08-12
    historical Contingent - Inspection
20. 2024-08-08
    price $85,000
21. 2024-05-31
    listed $95,000 Active
22. 2024-05-29
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $848 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $900 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: +$52/yr (+$4/mo · 6.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,891
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$848
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,511
• − Management: −$1,511
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $7,361
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,767
• After-tax cash flow: $6,535/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stewartville Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2738160
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $58,649
• Composite: 42.76/100
• National rank: #3156
• State rank: #120 of 301 in MN

Livability — Stewartville

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #18
• US rank: #527

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stewartville, MN
• City population: 8,542
• Population (ZIP): 8,542

Population outlook (Olmsted County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 165,999 people
• By 2030: 172,425 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 183,785 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 192,981 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 215,284 · +29.7%
• By 2100: 224,887 · +35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 20% Iranian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Olmsted

• 2024 margin: D (+10.7) · D 54.3% · R 43.6% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.4pp toward D · 2008: 3.3pp · 2024: 10.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.7 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+0.8 2012: D+3.2 2008: D+3.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.02%
• Current HPI: 267.7547
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

-10.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-05-19 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-19 Listed $85,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-13 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-12 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-08 Price Changed $85,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-31 Listed $95,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-29 Coming Soon — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $848 · -1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.