3156 Esplanade #300 · Chico, CA 95973

$94,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Manufactured · 137 Days on market

Built 1972 Average condition $94/sqft · 43% above area Est $66k · 43% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 3-bed, 2-bath home in Chico's Mountain View all-ages park is move in ready and perfectly equipped for the valley climate with full central heating and air conditioning. You'll find updated bathrooms with modern finishes and a functional floor plan. Located on the Esplanade, the pet-friendly community offers a pool and clubhouse just minutes from shopping and Bidwell Park.

Key facts

• Air conditioning
• Full central heating
• Updated bathrooms

Tags

• FULL CENTRAL HEATING
• AIR CONDITIONING
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• FUNCTIONAL FLOOR PLAN
• PET FRIENDLY COMMUNITY
• POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $94k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $730 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $94k).
• Recommended offer: $83k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.6% vs local median 2.6% in Chico — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#195 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A-; Watch: employment C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Chico Unified (urban): math 40% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #117 of 517 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Shasta Elementary (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #973 of 1,571 statewide, top 73%, 646 students, 45% FRL); Bidwell Junior High (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #277 of 498 statewide, top 73%, 990 students, 57% FRL); Pleasant Valley High (math 54% / reading 80%, grade B, #139 of 1,170 statewide, top 13%, 1,840 students, 46% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 55% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Chico Unified average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 152 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $653 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 137 days — a 12% lower offer ($83k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 137 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.85% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.08%
• DSCR: 2.47
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $66,000
• List price: $94,500
• Delta: 43.18%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3156 Esplanade #298	0.02mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (+12%)	6mo	$78,500	$70	69
3156 Esplanade #292	0.11mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (-14%)	5mo	$55,000	$64	59
3535 Anza Way	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-4%)	7mo	$33,000	$34	59
3540 Cisco Way #140	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (+6%)	4mo	$65,000	$62	57
3537 Via Medio	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,056 (+6%)	11mo	$118,000	$112	56
3548 Fotos Way #205	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (+6%)	9mo	$125,000	$118	50
370 E Lassen Ave #1	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,080 (+8%)	8mo	$79,000	$73	47
3551 Ava Way	0.58mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (+6%)	14mo	$57,000	$54	46
296 Camino Norte St #77	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (+6%)	14mo	$145,000	$137	46
3540 Ebano Way #187	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (+6%)	22mo	$107,000	$101	41
3549 Cisco Way	0.59mi	2/2.0 (-1)	895 (-10%)	12mo	$80,000	$89	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.09×
• Total profit: $28,916
• Equity at exit: $14,090

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.88×
• Total profit: $76,081
• Equity at exit: $8,171

Cash invested: $26,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95973

• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 152
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,750 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$496
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$118 /mo · $1,418/yr
• Insurance: −$39
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $730

Break-even live

Break-even rent $827

Max offer price $94,500

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $795	-5% $762	+0% $730	+5% $697	+10% $664
Rent	-10% $591	-5% $660	+0% $730	+5% $799	+10% $868
Rate	-1.0pp $777	-0.5pp $754	base $730	+0.5pp $705	+1.0pp $680

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,625
• Closing costs: $2,835
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
194 E Shasta Ave Unit 3B Chico, CA	2.0	1.0	875	$1,900	$2.17	45d	1	0.40mi
490 Posada Way Chico, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	15d	1	0.59mi
100 Penzance Ave Chico, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	890	$1,710	$1.92	15d	26	0.69mi
2909 Godman Ave Unit 2909-2 Chico, CA	3.0	2.0	1170	$1,725	$1.47	45d	1	0.73mi
583 Morgan Dr #2 Chico, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,750	$1.59	22d	1	0.75mi
139 W Lassen Ave #22 Chico, CA	2.0	1.0	766	$1,450	$1.89	45d	1	0.75mi
205 W Lassen Ave Chico, CA	2.0	1.0	792	$1,500	$1.89	45d	1	0.79mi
101 Risa Way Chico, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1013	$1,970	$1.94	15d	1	0.83mi
1 Mayfair Dr Chico, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,325	$1.47	45d	1	0.92mi
2619 Waverly Ct Chico, CA	2.0	2.0	1225	$2,400	$1.96	22d	1	1.17mi
4200 Nord Hwy Chico, CA	2.0	2.0	939	$1,675	$1.78	15d	13	1.19mi
1067 Running Springs Cir Chico, CA	2.0	1.0	720	$1,325	$1.84	45d	3	1.20mi
1067 Running Springs Cir Chico, CA	2.0	1.0	720	$1,300	$1.81	15d	1	1.20mi
2718 White Ave Unit B Chico, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,190	$1.49	22d	1	1.23mi
400 Mission Ranch Blvd Chico, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	995	$1,775	$1.78	15d	1	1.27mi
1080 E Lassen Ave Chico, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	802	$1,650	$2.06	15d	10	1.27mi
599 East Ave Chico, CA	3.0	1.0	989	$1,750	$1.77	22d	1	1.29mi
64 Tara Ter Unit 64-2 Chico, CA	2.0	1.5	1048	$1,625	$1.55	45d	1	1.30mi
1055 E Lassen Ave Chico, CA	2.0	1.0	817	$1,325	$1.62	15d	1	1.32mi
225 Mission Serra Ter Chico, CA	2.0	2.0	1358	$2,000	$1.47	15d	1	1.32mi
2485 Pillsbury Rd Unit 2485-03 Chico, CA	2.0	2.0	950	$1,595	$1.68	15d	1	1.36mi
29 Cameo Dr #2 Chico, CA	2.0	1.0	928	$1,400	$1.51	45d	1	1.39mi
390 Rio Lindo Ave Chico, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	727	$1,550	$2.13	15d	6	1.39mi
50 Cameo Dr Apt 3 Chico, CA	2.0	1.0	854	$1,350	$1.58	45d	1	1.41mi
120 Menlo Way Chico, CA	2.0	1.0	817	$1,330	$1.63	15d	1	1.43mi
711 W East Ave Apt 2 Chico, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	15d	1	1.43mi
711 W East Ave Unit 08 Chico, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	45d	1	1.44mi
251 Rio Lindo Ave Chico, CA	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,400	$1.27	45d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $94,500 Active 137 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $94,500 Active 135 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $94,500 Active 134 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $94,500 Active 133 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $94,500 Active 132 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $94,500 Active 131 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $94,500 Active 129 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $94,500 Active 128 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $94,500 Active 126 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $94,500 Active 124 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $94,500 Active 123 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $94,500 Active 120 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $94,500 Active 118 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $94,500 Active 117 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $94,500 Active 116 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $94,500 Active 115 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 35 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,001
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,293
• − Property taxes: −$1,418
• − Insurance: −$472
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,680
• − Management: −$1,680
• − Depreciation: −$2,749
• Taxable income: $7,708
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,850
• After-tax cash flow: $6,904/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready manufactured home in Chico's Mountain View park is in average condition with minor repairs needed. Upgrades to the exterior, kitchen, and bathrooms would significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor exterior siding — Visible weathering
• Minor kitchen countertops — Worn and dated
• Minor bathroom tile — Worn and dated

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal
• Resale Replace worn tile in kitchen and bathrooms — Improves functionality and aesthetics
• Resale Upgrade kitchen countertops — Enhances functionality and aesthetics
• Resale Upgrade bathroom fixtures — Enhances functionality and aesthetics
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Visible weathering	Minor	$500–3,000
kitchen countertops · Worn and dated	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom tile · Worn and dated	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Replace worn tile in kitchen and bathrooms — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Resale Upgrade kitchen countertops — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Resale Upgrade bathroom fixtures — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chico Unified
• NCES district ID: 0608370
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 14.00%
• Median HH income: $46,223
• Composite: 46.45/100
• National rank: #2443
• State rank: #117 of 517 in CA

Livability — Chico

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #6332

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing B Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chico, CA
• County: Butte County · 175,030 people
• City population: 117,007
• Metro: Chico, CA
• Population (ZIP): 39,031
• Household income: $92,813
• Rent vs Own: 37.9% rent · 62.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1230.0

Population outlook (Butte County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,527 people
• By 2030: 243,804 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 253,899 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 262,561 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 283,709 · +19.4%
• By 2100: 282,689 · +19.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 10% Asian 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 4% Russian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Butte

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.8% · R 49.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+1.7 2016: R+4.0 2012: R+3.9 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -182.94%
• Current HPI: 259.9774
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.70%
• Metro: Chico, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B