Is this property in Canyon Lake, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D with a 4.5% cap rate and $-938/mo modeled cash flow at a $340,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate?

The modeled cap rate is 4.5% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,327/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🌊 Lakefront

D Composite 40.22

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +15.0/15.0
Cash flow +6.9/30.0
Schools +5.0/10.0
Condition / age +4.8/5.0
Livability +3.4/5.0
Rent growth +2.2/5.0
1% rule +1.8/10.0
DSCR +1.1/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$340,000

None · Canyon Lake, TX 78133

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,637 sqft · SingleFamily · 102 Days on market

Built 1984 Excellent condition 0.32 ac lot $208/sqft · 47% below area Est $645k · 47% under · waterfront ↓ 9% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Completely transformed Canyon Lake home taken down to the studs and fully renovated with quality finishes throughout. This move-in-ready property offers a modern, open-concept layout, updated systems, and a fresh, clean design that blends comfort with Hill Country charm. Located in a peaceful setting with convenient access to Canyon Lake, boating, fishing, short-term rental opportunities, and outdoor recreation. Ideal as a primary residence, weekend retreat, or investment property. No HOA. Buyer to verify all measurements, schools, and property details. Seller is offering an allowance toward future CARPORT installation with an acceptable offer.

Key facts

Fully renovated
Updated systems
Outdoor recreation

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $340k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-938 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $204k (39.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (31.6% below list).
Recommended offer: $204k (39.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 2.3% in Canyon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 67/100 on livability (#534 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Mt Valley El (math 45% / reading 49%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 471 students, 52% FRL); Mt Valley Middle (math 55% / reading 51%, grade C+, #281 of 1,662 statewide, top 18%, 808 students, 49% FRL); Canyon Lake H S (math 46% / reading 56%, grade D+, #482 of 1,632 statewide, top 30%, 1,038 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 46% FRL vs 31% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 1169 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 60d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($309k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,291 (39.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.68% ✗
Cap rate: 4.49%
Cash-on-cash: -6.45%
DSCR: 0.71
GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $644,775
List price: $340,000
Delta: -47.27%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9360 Rebecca Creek Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,700 (+4%)	8mo	$399,000	$235	82
—	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,591 (-3%)	21mo	$314,983	$198	73

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -42.1%
Equity multiple: -0.27×
Total profit: $-121,349
Equity at exit: $50,695

10-year hold

IRR: -99.0%
Equity multiple: -1.18×
Total profit: $-207,731
Equity at exit: $29,397

Cash invested: $95,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 5 active · 1 under contract
Median asking: $429,000 ($247/sqft)
Median days on market: 54 d
This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
ARV vs active asking: +59.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78133

Home prices YoY: -33.8%
Rents YoY: -1.2%
Active inventory: 1169
Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,327 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,783
Tax est. 1.5%: −$425 /mo · $5,100/yr
Insurance: −$142
Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$489
Net cashflow: $-938

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,514

Max offer price $204,291

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-703	-5% $-820	+0% $-938	+5% $-1,055	+10% $-1,173
Rent	-10% $-1,122	-5% $-1,030	+0% $-938	+5% $-846	+10% $-754
Rate	-1.0pp $-767	-0.5pp $-851	base $-938	+0.5pp $-1,026	+1.0pp $-1,116

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $85,000
Closing costs: $10,200
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
693 Riviera Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1776	$2,995	$1.69	93d	1	1.12mi
2676 Woodcrest Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1180	$2,100	$1.78	93d	1	1.16mi
1392 Hillcrest Frst Canyon Lake, TX	4.0	3.0	2050	$4,000	$1.95	93d	1	1.20mi
520 Lake Frst Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	3.0	1606	$2,800	$1.74	29d	1	1.21mi
612 Mockingbird Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,950	$1.37	60d	1	1.27mi
311 Cindy Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1332	$1,600	$1.20	17d	1	1.31mi
311 Cindy Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1332	$1,575	$1.18	17d	1	1.31mi
167 Mary Ann Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1249	$1,900	$1.52	13d	1	1.34mi
1178 Amanda Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1592	$1,210	$0.76	17d	1	1.41mi
1142 Amanda Unit 1351227P Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1227	$4,741	$3.86	13d	1	1.42mi
1220 Diamondhead Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1642	$1,875	$1.14	21d	1	1.42mi
1569 Comfort Unit Na Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	64d	1	1.42mi
1569 Comfort Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	67d	1	1.42mi
662 Hillclimb Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	1.5	1345	$1,950	$1.45	93d	1	1.43mi

Property features AI

Finance

Financial info: Down payment assistance resources available (DPR eligible)
HOA & community: Located in Scenic Terrace / SCENIC TERRACE subdivision

Exterior

Parking: Asphalt driveway / improvements
Utilities: Septic and city water availableCity powerCity garbage serviceGas water heater
Home design: Pre-owned propertyFront faces westRecent rehab
Construction: Siding exteriorComposition roofApproximately 42 years oldBuilt by Indway Properties LLC
Exterior features: Covered patioDouble-pane windowsGuttersMature treesSloping lot with seasonal creekAsphalt improvements

Interior

Kitchen: Island kitchenWalk-in pantryStove/RangeRefrigeratorDishwasherDisposalVent fanSolid countertops
Bedrooms: Master bedroom with walk-in closet, ceiling fan and full bath (16 x 13)Bedroom 2 (13 x 10)Bedroom 3 (13 x 10)Bedroom 4 (11 x 10)
Flooring: Ceramic tile flooringVinyl flooring
Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsMaster bath with shower only and single vanity (5 x 6)
Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning
Interior features: Ceiling fans throughoutWasher and dryer connectionsStove/RangeRefrigeratorDisposalDishwasherVent fanSmoke alarmGas water heaterSolid countertopsCity garbage serviceOpen floor planIsland kitchenWalk-in pantryUtility room insideSeparate dining roomOne living area
Laundry & utility: Washer connectionDryer connectionUtility room inside

Listing history 45 events

2026-07-26

days on market $340,000 Active 102 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $340,000 Active 100 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $340,000 Active 99 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $340,000 Active 98 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $340,000 Active 97 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $340,000 Active 96 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $340,000 Active 94 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $340,000 Active 93 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $340,000 Active 92 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $340,000 Active 91 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $340,000 Active 90 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $340,000 Active 89 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $340,000 Active 88 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $340,000 Active 87 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $340,000 Active 86 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $340,000 Active 85 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $340,000 Active 83 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $340,000 Active 82 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $340,000 Active 81 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $340,000 Active 79 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $340,000 Active 78 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $340,000 Active 77 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $340,000 Active 76 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $340,000 Active 75 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $340,000 Active 74 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $340,000 Active 73 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $340,000 Active 72 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $340,000 Active 70 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $340,000 Active 68 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $340,000 Active 67 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $340,000 Active 64 DOM
2026-06-17

remarks 699-char remark
2026-06-17

days on market $340,000 Active 63 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $340,000 Active 62 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $340,000 Active 61 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $340,000 Active 59 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $340,000 Active 55 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $340,000 Active 54 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $340,000 Active 53 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $340,000 Active 50 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $340,000 Active 49 DOM
2026-06-02

statusdays on market $340,000 Active 48 DOM
2026-06-01

days on market $340,000 Price Change 47 DOM
2026-05-31

days on market $340,000 Price Change 46 DOM
2026-04-15

listed $375,000 New 559-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AE · 14% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $27,924
− Mortgage interest: −$19,045
− Property taxes: −$5,100
− Insurance: −$6,818
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,234
− Management: −$2,234
− Depreciation: −$9,891
Taxable loss: −$17,398

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,176
After-tax cash flow: $-7,079/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready home in Canyon Lake, TX, offers a modern, open-concept layout with updated systems and a fresh design, making it ideal for both primary residence and investment opportunities.

Value-add opportunities

Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
Both Smart home integration — Improves convenience and adds modern amenities for both buyers and renters. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mt Valley El D- TX #1,006/4,322 Nat'l #14,504/41,679 Middle Mt Valley Middle C+ TX #281/1,662 Nat'l #2,873/14,009 High Canyon Lake H S D+ TX #482/1,632 Nat'l #5,320/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Comal ISD
NCES district ID: 4814730
Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
Median HH income: $74,792
Composite: 51.79/100
National rank: #1671
State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Canyon Lake

Score: 67/100
State rank: #534
US rank: #10441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Canyon Lake, TX
County: Comal County · 175,637 people
City population: 42,159
Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
Population (ZIP): 21,959
Household income: $83,853
Rent vs Own: 15.2% rent · 84.8% own
Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 175,637 people
By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Comal

2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -111.36%
Current HPI: 218.4633
Rent YoY: ▼ -1.20%
Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-9.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

2026-05-23 Price Changed $340,000 LERA
2026-04-15 Listed $375,000 LERA

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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